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Soaring already DOA for the season???
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Matt Herron Jr.
Mar 22, 2020, 8:42:56 PM3/22/20
to
Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
George Haeh
Mar 22, 2020, 10:29:27 PM3/22/20
to
There may be a lull in infections in the May-June time frame and perhaps an easing of controls until the second wave hits September-October.
Some research is showing that temperature >17C and/or absolute humidity >9g / m³ inhibits transmission.
We'll know more as the Summer proceeds.
There's a bunch of Canadian snowbirds rushing back from California through Florida a month or two prematurely when they may have been smarter to stay put.
This Fall may be a good time for us older folk to decamp to warmer and sultry climes provided you can find a flight, health insurance coverage and accommodating border officials.
Some research is showing that temperature >17C and/or absolute humidity >9g / m³ inhibits transmission.
We'll know more as the Summer proceeds.
There's a bunch of Canadian snowbirds rushing back from California through Florida a month or two prematurely when they may have been smarter to stay put.
This Fall may be a good time for us older folk to decamp to warmer and sultry climes provided you can find a flight, health insurance coverage and accommodating border officials.
5Z
Mar 22, 2020, 11:35:42 PM3/22/20
to
Another thing to keep in mind is that all medical personnel will be busy dealing with sick people, so any accidents we may have while having fun will be adding unnecessary stress on the system. So unnecessary driving and any other potentially dangerous activities should be kept to a minimum.
Lots of collateral effects with this pandemic.
5Z
Lots of collateral effects with this pandemic.
5Z
Glidergeek
Mar 23, 2020, 10:16:22 AM3/23/20
to
I'd think 200' of tow rope would be enough social distancing.
cyna...@gmail.com
Mar 23, 2020, 11:57:46 AM3/23/20
to
On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 10:16:22 AM UTC-4, Glidergeek wrote:
> I'd think 200' of tow rope would be enough social distancing.
We have lengthened our tow ropes to 206'
> I'd think 200' of tow rope would be enough social distancing.
Weirsdale Glider Club
Matt Herron Jr.
Mar 23, 2020, 12:34:27 PM3/23/20
to
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:42:56 PM UTC-7, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
As a group, we are for the most part, experts at coming up with procedures and checklists that improve safety. Perhaps we can put methods in place for assembly, launch, retrieval, etc. that reduce the chances of spreading the virus, even after restrictions may be lifted.
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
Matt
Dan Marotta
Mar 23, 2020, 12:42:12 PM3/23/20
to
ABQ Soaring and Sundance Aviation at Moriarty were both conducting
training flights yesterday. I'm sure their folks were taking adequate
precautions. Power flying activities were also going on and, as soon as
I see a relatively decent soaring forecast (given the season), I'll take
the Stemme up. Of course, I don't need to interact with anyone to get
airborne or put away. Luckily...
On 3/22/2020 6:42 PM, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
--
Dan, 5J
training flights yesterday. I'm sure their folks were taking adequate
precautions. Power flying activities were also going on and, as soon as
I see a relatively decent soaring forecast (given the season), I'll take
the Stemme up. Of course, I don't need to interact with anyone to get
airborne or put away. Luckily...
On 3/22/2020 6:42 PM, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Dan, 5J
James Metcalfe
Mar 23, 2020, 12:45:05 PM3/23/20
to
> I'd think 200' of tow rope would be enough social distancing.
>...
>We have lengthened our tow ropes to 206'
>Weirsdale Glider Club
Aw c'mon! The ship spoiled for a ha'p'orth of tar: a further 6.74 ins
>Weirsdale Glider Club
required to get the 2 metres!
AS
Mar 23, 2020, 12:51:19 PM3/23/20
to
> As a group, we are for the most part, experts at coming up with procedures and checklists that improve safety. Perhaps we can put methods in place for assembly, launch, retrieval, etc. that reduce the chances of spreading the virus, even after restrictions may be lifted.
>
> For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
>
> I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
>
> Matt
If the glider is being used by multiple pilots/passengers, i.e. a club trainer, the controls, belt-buckles, canopy lock, microphone, etc. could/should be wiped down with a disinfecting wipe. Takes a minute to do and will add a layer of protection.
>
> For example, hold the wing a little farther from the tip when handing it off to an assistant during assembly. Don't approach someone's cockpit (occupied, or not) without verbal OK. keep the cockpit window shut as you are hooked up for launch. gloves for ground crews? Pay your tow bill by mail rather than in the office.
>
> I am sure this talented group can come up with lots of practical ideas to protect ourselves. As a group we tend to skew older and male, both higher risk groups for Covid-19 infection. Perhaps we can still enjoy what we do without adding any more risk to the sport.
>
> Matt
Uli
'AS'
Eric Greenwell
Mar 23, 2020, 1:07:30 PM3/23/20
to
get a motorglider to achieve the social distancing that is required from all of us."
Later...
"Honey, just an FYI: I got us a motorhome so we can shelter-in-place at the
gliderport, where I will keep our new motorglider."
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
Dan Marotta
Mar 23, 2020, 1:10:21 PM3/23/20
to
This is from a friend who is a physician, passed on with permission. I
chose to keep his identity private.
Of course you can share!
It's all info from reputable sources: WHO, Reuters, CDC.
On Monday, March 23, 2020, 10:30:01 AM MDT, Dan Marotta
<dcma...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Excellent analysis, thanks!
And, as we just discussed on the phone, I am doing all of the
recommended things, not out of fear but out of a sense of personal
preservation. I understand that there are people who, out of a sense of
bravado will do stupid, even destructive things.
May I share what you've written to me? I'll keep your identity private.
Dan
On 3/23/2020 9:54 AM, *** wrote:
We have a vaccine for the flu. The mortality for the flu is 0.1%
We don't have a vaccine for this. It's mortality is 2-4%.
The Chinese shut down a city of 11 million people...
The Italians are rationing care....
You need scary data? Check out Reuters Global covid tracker. Check out
the curves on the number of cases per country. check out the overall
mortality.
People have good reason to be scared and the fear is good. Fear makes
people isolate themselves and decrease the speed of spread.
The opposite, people that carry on like nothing is happening, will
overwhelm your healthcare system. If that happens, we won't have enough
ventilators, enough personal protection equipment, or enough providers.
People will then start dying of routine conditions (in addition to the
coronavirus) that they easily survived before (with appropriate care).
For example if all our ICU's are packed with people on ventilators
because of coronavirus and you have a heart attack there is no ICU for
you....If there are no hospital beds available because of the virus,
someone with a bowel obstruction (treated with IVF's in 98% of cases)
will perish because of lack of services. If your surgeon is sick and you
have appendicitis, you'll die from another routine condition...
In all honesty, I think we lost control of the situation a few weeks ago
(ie new york), I would expect complete chaos in the next 3 months. This
will include curfews, strict enforcement of quarantines, and overall
disregard for our civil rights.At this late stage, even this is not
going to prevent the massive loss of life. Unless the virus changes or
there are some seasonal effects expect 1-2 million american deaths in
the next 12 months.
Hope I'm wrong...
--
Dan, 5J
chose to keep his identity private.
Of course you can share!
It's all info from reputable sources: WHO, Reuters, CDC.
On Monday, March 23, 2020, 10:30:01 AM MDT, Dan Marotta
<dcma...@earthlink.net> wrote:
Excellent analysis, thanks!
And, as we just discussed on the phone, I am doing all of the
recommended things, not out of fear but out of a sense of personal
preservation. I understand that there are people who, out of a sense of
bravado will do stupid, even destructive things.
May I share what you've written to me? I'll keep your identity private.
Dan
On 3/23/2020 9:54 AM, *** wrote:
We have a vaccine for the flu. The mortality for the flu is 0.1%
We don't have a vaccine for this. It's mortality is 2-4%.
The Chinese shut down a city of 11 million people...
The Italians are rationing care....
You need scary data? Check out Reuters Global covid tracker. Check out
the curves on the number of cases per country. check out the overall
mortality.
People have good reason to be scared and the fear is good. Fear makes
people isolate themselves and decrease the speed of spread.
The opposite, people that carry on like nothing is happening, will
overwhelm your healthcare system. If that happens, we won't have enough
ventilators, enough personal protection equipment, or enough providers.
People will then start dying of routine conditions (in addition to the
coronavirus) that they easily survived before (with appropriate care).
For example if all our ICU's are packed with people on ventilators
because of coronavirus and you have a heart attack there is no ICU for
you....If there are no hospital beds available because of the virus,
someone with a bowel obstruction (treated with IVF's in 98% of cases)
will perish because of lack of services. If your surgeon is sick and you
have appendicitis, you'll die from another routine condition...
In all honesty, I think we lost control of the situation a few weeks ago
(ie new york), I would expect complete chaos in the next 3 months. This
will include curfews, strict enforcement of quarantines, and overall
disregard for our civil rights.At this late stage, even this is not
going to prevent the massive loss of life. Unless the virus changes or
there are some seasonal effects expect 1-2 million american deaths in
the next 12 months.
Hope I'm wrong...
Dan, 5J
Richard DalCanto
Mar 23, 2020, 2:29:02 PM3/23/20
to
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 6:42:56 PM UTC-6, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Flight schools pose a problem because of social distancing. Current pilots with their own gliders can enjoy the best social distancing on the planet. No viruses in the air at 18,000 feet inside our private bubbles. 200 ft tow rope. Just need to avoid the chit-chat at the field before flying. Everyone stays with their own glider. And don't kiss your tow pilot before your flight....
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
krasw
Mar 23, 2020, 2:44:39 PM3/23/20
to
AS
Mar 23, 2020, 3:40:22 PM3/23/20
to
Uli
'AS'
Matt Herron Jr.
Mar 23, 2020, 6:58:05 PM3/23/20
to
Rich Owen
Mar 23, 2020, 7:56:44 PM3/23/20
to
Ladies and Gentlemen,
Seminole-Lake was very lucky to get the Senior Soaring Championship complete last week. Even with extraordinary precautions, it was a very close call. If it was this week, we would have cancelled. Right now Seminole is only towing private ships, no instruction or rides. I might hold a XC camp for clubs in Florida limited to 5 pilots. Bring your single seater, and I’ll have 1 slot in a DG-1000T. Ground school in a wide open environment will be done. It will only last during a weekend, maybe Friday thru Sunday. The weather has been great, and anyone wanting to do badge flying, come on down. However, we do have restrictions on social distancing and contact with employees. If your interested, contact me at stil...@aol.com.
Seminole-Lake was very lucky to get the Senior Soaring Championship complete last week. Even with extraordinary precautions, it was a very close call. If it was this week, we would have cancelled. Right now Seminole is only towing private ships, no instruction or rides. I might hold a XC camp for clubs in Florida limited to 5 pilots. Bring your single seater, and I’ll have 1 slot in a DG-1000T. Ground school in a wide open environment will be done. It will only last during a weekend, maybe Friday thru Sunday. The weather has been great, and anyone wanting to do badge flying, come on down. However, we do have restrictions on social distancing and contact with employees. If your interested, contact me at stil...@aol.com.
son_of_flubber
Mar 26, 2020, 7:16:28 PM3/26/20
to
Assuming medical resources are in short supply, who goes to the front of the Triage line? The mother whose kid brought COVID-19 home from preschool, or the glider pilot who has a car accident on his way home from a gliding competition?
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 26, 2020, 7:21:42 PM3/26/20
to
I’ll take my chances. I got the same odds every time I drive. I’m sure as hell not going to live life due to fear. I don’t have many years left as it is.
Dan
Dan
Mike N.
Mar 26, 2020, 9:38:58 PM3/26/20
to
Andrzej Kobus
Mar 26, 2020, 10:12:57 PM3/26/20
to
On Thursday, March 26, 2020 at 9:38:58 PM UTC-4, Mike N. wrote:
> Worth a read...
>
> https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/?fbclid=IwAR0ds_-SIUhdykEqoBsL4KyCXiZiEzzRkGXarsQPKyfhLIxYnz_oyZp6z5U
Tell that to the 26 year old healthy young man who is in coma due to COVID or the 36 year old Principal from NYC, who passed away, no this is not just affecting old people who would die anyway. We only had 137 cases in NH today and 30 of them required hospitalization. That is a high hospitalization %.
> Worth a read...
>
> https://thefederalist.com/2020/03/26/the-scientist-whose-doomsday-pandemic-model-predicted-armageddon-just-walked-back-the-apocalyptic-predictions/?fbclid=IwAR0ds_-SIUhdykEqoBsL4KyCXiZiEzzRkGXarsQPKyfhLIxYnz_oyZp6z5U
Mike N.
Mar 26, 2020, 10:25:24 PM3/26/20
to
I'm not interested in debating this. Read the article and draw your own conclusions.
The point of the article is that the models of infection and death rate have been skewed to high.
It is certainly tragic to lose people to disease whether it be Covid-19 or influenza, etc.
The point of the article is that the models of infection and death rate have been skewed to high.
It is certainly tragic to lose people to disease whether it be Covid-19 or influenza, etc.
Duster
Mar 27, 2020, 1:41:50 AM3/27/20
to
Mike,
I heard this news broadcast earlier today. Glad you posted it here as I think as many people as possible should read it, if nothing else but to calm those put into a panic because of these outrageous predictions that are not based on reasonable models. Those figures were the ones California’s governor Newsom used to argue that 765,000 deaths would occur in that one state alone over the next 7 weeks. There are other epidemiological studies out there that have more credible modeling criterion and I hope they get widely published soon.
I heard this news broadcast earlier today. Glad you posted it here as I think as many people as possible should read it, if nothing else but to calm those put into a panic because of these outrageous predictions that are not based on reasonable models. Those figures were the ones California’s governor Newsom used to argue that 765,000 deaths would occur in that one state alone over the next 7 weeks. There are other epidemiological studies out there that have more credible modeling criterion and I hope they get widely published soon.
George Haeh
Mar 27, 2020, 2:01:22 AM3/27/20
to
The survivors (percentage to be determined) will see in the next couple months which forecasts were closest.
My forecast is that certain jurisdictions will keep the lid on and others will see a runaway.
My forecast is that certain jurisdictions will keep the lid on and others will see a runaway.
jpg...@gmail.com
Mar 27, 2020, 3:23:38 AM3/27/20
to
It looks to me that the Federalist report is deeply flawed in its understanding. It is in fact as a result of the strict suppression measures introduced in the UK the last few days, and also the ongoing increase in ICU capacity, that it is hoped to keep the UK mortality below 20,000 and those measures were partly informed by the Imperial College report. So it's an updated prediction from Neil Ferguson in the light of the practical responses to the ICL study and not a roll back. I hope he is right.
For an objective report of his evidence look at the New Scientist or The Times. It is hard to understand how any competent news reporter could have genuinely so misunderstood this.
For an objective report of his evidence look at the New Scientist or The Times. It is hard to understand how any competent news reporter could have genuinely so misunderstood this.
Scott Liebling
Mar 27, 2020, 9:08:21 AM3/27/20
to
It's why I won't ride my motorcycle during this pandemic. While I'm reasonably certain that nothing would happen, I wouldn't want to be "that guy" who piles on an already overburdened health care system just in case something did happen.
Dave Nadler
Mar 27, 2020, 9:30:30 AM3/27/20
to
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 10:29:27 PM UTC-4, George Haeh wrote:
> There may be a lull in infections in the May-June time frame...
I assume you're talking about USA here. If so,probably not, as we are:
1) still extremely testing limited
2) not doing wide testing, tracking, or mandatory quarantine of anyone exposed
Those measures are why China has controlled this but we can't.
Two really good write-ups if you are interested in the epidemiology:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
These do not address two other important reasons USA is having difficulty:
- CDC and FDA testing screw-ups
- Closure of USA CDC's China pandemic office before this happened
Each of these likely wasted precious time for recognition and containment.
Unfortunately, this will likely get worse for a while.
Hope that helps for those of you scientifically inclined,
Best Regards, Dave
> There may be a lull in infections in the May-June time frame...
I assume you're talking about USA here. If so,probably not, as we are:
1) still extremely testing limited
2) not doing wide testing, tracking, or mandatory quarantine of anyone exposed
Those measures are why China has controlled this but we can't.
Two really good write-ups if you are interested in the epidemiology:
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
These do not address two other important reasons USA is having difficulty:
- CDC and FDA testing screw-ups
- Closure of USA CDC's China pandemic office before this happened
Each of these likely wasted precious time for recognition and containment.
Unfortunately, this will likely get worse for a while.
Hope that helps for those of you scientifically inclined,
Best Regards, Dave
markm...@gmail.com
Mar 27, 2020, 9:41:14 AM3/27/20
to
According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.
If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.
If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 27, 2020, 10:16:30 AM3/27/20
to
Markm so true. As I dictate this I am on my way to our gliderport dragging up my tractor to mow (county isnt mowing now), then were gonna fly today n this weekend. No two place, no instruction, no contact. I don’t have to interact with a single soul on the way up or back, don’t need gas or lunch. So my chance of infecting anyone is dang near zero. I think many other clubs who are not in viral epicenters can do the same.
Dan
Dan
BobWa43
Mar 27, 2020, 10:47:26 AM3/27/20
to
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Keep the faith Matt. It would appear that the current numbers being reported do not support the doomsday scenarios. There may be hope for soaring this season.
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
gregg...@gmail.com
Mar 27, 2020, 12:08:31 PM3/27/20
to
Dan Marotta
Mar 27, 2020, 1:45:53 PM3/27/20
to
All of these cases are tragic but so many people and outlets use the
exception, rather than the rule, to state their case.
Just because one 26 year old gets the virus and requires hospitalization
does not mean that all, most, or even many will do likewise. It also
does not mean that it won't happen.
Judge for yourself, make your own decisions, live (or die) by the
consequences. I'll continue to fly and to ride my motorcycle. I'll
also wash my hands more often. Those are my decisions. And I don't
want any crap about my risking the lives of others. My location and
life style keep me from coming in contact with other people. If you
live in New Jersey, you need to be more stringent than I do living in
the mountains of New Mexico.
--
Dan, 5J
exception, rather than the rule, to state their case.
Just because one 26 year old gets the virus and requires hospitalization
does not mean that all, most, or even many will do likewise. It also
does not mean that it won't happen.
Judge for yourself, make your own decisions, live (or die) by the
consequences. I'll continue to fly and to ride my motorcycle. I'll
also wash my hands more often. Those are my decisions. And I don't
want any crap about my risking the lives of others. My location and
life style keep me from coming in contact with other people. If you
live in New Jersey, you need to be more stringent than I do living in
the mountains of New Mexico.
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
Mar 27, 2020, 1:47:35 PM3/27/20
to
How long ago did Newsome make that claim? What's the current count?
What's a reasonable projection for the stated 7 weeks?
On 3/26/2020 11:41 PM, Duster wrote:
> Mike,
> I heard this news broadcast earlier today. Glad you posted it here as I think as many people as possible should read it, if nothing else but to calm those put into a panic because of these outrageous predictions that are not based on reasonable models. Those figures were the ones California’s governor Newsom used to argue that 765,000 deaths would occur in that one state alone over the next 7 weeks. There are other epidemiological studies out there that have more credible modeling criterion and I hope they get widely published soon.
--
Dan, 5J
What's a reasonable projection for the stated 7 weeks?
On 3/26/2020 11:41 PM, Duster wrote:
> Mike,
> I heard this news broadcast earlier today. Glad you posted it here as I think as many people as possible should read it, if nothing else but to calm those put into a panic because of these outrageous predictions that are not based on reasonable models. Those figures were the ones California’s governor Newsom used to argue that 765,000 deaths would occur in that one state alone over the next 7 weeks. There are other epidemiological studies out there that have more credible modeling criterion and I hope they get widely published soon.
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
Mar 27, 2020, 1:52:52 PM3/27/20
to
I just received an email from the New Mexico Pilots Association. They
queried the governor's office about private flying and the response was
positive for solo and flights with family members. Now, if only the
weather would cooperate!
--
Dan, 5J
queried the governor's office about private flying and the response was
positive for solo and flights with family members. Now, if only the
weather would cooperate!
Dan, 5J
Duster
Mar 27, 2020, 2:45:18 PM3/27/20
to
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 12:47:35 PM UTC-5, Dan Marotta wrote:
> How long ago did Newsome make that claim? What's the current count?
> What's a reasonable projection for the stated 7 weeks?
> Dan, 5J
> How long ago did Newsome make that claim? What's the current count?
> What's a reasonable projection for the stated 7 weeks?
From Newsom's letter to Trump dated March 18: "We project that roughly 56% of our population - 25.5 million people - will be infected with the virus over an 8 week period." Note that the gov uses the term "will be" not "could/might be". https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/3.18.20-Letter-USNS-Mercy-Hospital-Ship.pdf
And at approx 3% mortality (today, the death rate is more like 1.5%), that equates to 765,000 deaths in California. Expanded to the entire US; 5,544,000 deaths.
To answer your other questions, particularly on the use of more reasonable models (no citations from bloggers): https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/mathematics-life-and-death-how-disease-models-shape-national-shutdowns-and-other
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html
https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/california-coronavirus-numbers-newsom-trump-15144169.php
https://www.france24.com/en/20200320-california-governor-orders-entire-state-to-stay-at-home
Richard DalCanto
Mar 27, 2020, 5:01:11 PM3/27/20
to
On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 7:41:14 AM UTC-6, markm...@gmail.com wrote:
> According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.
>
> If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.
Mark, I think you need to watch Nightly News with Lestor Holt tonight. I'm sure they will cover New York and other hotspots, so you can understand what happens to the health care system if the virus is allowed to spread quickly. Even 5% of people age 20-30 need hospital care to live, and the numbers go up dramatically with age. With patients needing ventilators for 2-3 weeks, it is not hard to understand how the system can get quickly over whelmed. The cause of death in many patients is Cardiomyopathy, or heart damage and failure. 20% of people, who are hospitalized and live, have permanent heart damage, on top those who have lung scaring from the severe pneumonia.
> According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.
>
> If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.
son_of_flubber
Mar 27, 2020, 8:30:30 PM3/27/20
to
Looking at the present crisis in NYC, the government there rolled out contact-restrictions much too slowly.
It seems silly to take my cues as to what is presently safe and appropriate behavior from a foot-dragging government that has a conflicted agenda.
To draw a parallel with flying, following the FAR perfectly does not make you safe. To manage risk, you need to make your own go/no_go decisions and set your own 'personal minimums'. Rules that are perceived to be too restrictive may be disregarded (at least by glider pilots). Likewise with contact-restrictions.
I bought an N100 mask a year ago. I wore it on an 18 hour commercial flight last Monday-Tuesday (26 hours door to door with layovers). I'm pretty sure that everyone will be asked to wear a mask when there enough to go around.
It seems silly to take my cues as to what is presently safe and appropriate behavior from a foot-dragging government that has a conflicted agenda.
To draw a parallel with flying, following the FAR perfectly does not make you safe. To manage risk, you need to make your own go/no_go decisions and set your own 'personal minimums'. Rules that are perceived to be too restrictive may be disregarded (at least by glider pilots). Likewise with contact-restrictions.
I bought an N100 mask a year ago. I wore it on an 18 hour commercial flight last Monday-Tuesday (26 hours door to door with layovers). I'm pretty sure that everyone will be asked to wear a mask when there enough to go around.
Message has been deleted
James Metcalfe
Mar 28, 2020, 9:45:05 AM3/28/20
to
At 11:03 28 March 2020, krasw wrote:
>In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
>inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.
Ahem! That's 0.02%
J.
>In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
>inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.
Ahem! That's 0.02%
J.
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 28, 2020, 10:29:20 AM3/28/20
to
We’re not quite dead yet!
Took care of mowing duties at the gliderport yesterday and then proceeded to make a few tows. We’re only doing solo flights, keeping our distance and doing just fine.
Better figure this thing out now as this is the new normal. Unless you want to just sit in your house for the next six months, order takeout n home delivery. You have a bigger chance of infection there than you do flying your ship.
Dan
Took care of mowing duties at the gliderport yesterday and then proceeded to make a few tows. We’re only doing solo flights, keeping our distance and doing just fine.
Better figure this thing out now as this is the new normal. Unless you want to just sit in your house for the next six months, order takeout n home delivery. You have a bigger chance of infection there than you do flying your ship.
Dan
stu8...@gmail.com
Mar 28, 2020, 11:05:50 AM3/28/20
to
> In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
In the US, 300M/100k is one per 3000, but to get there, it has been increasing at a steady 1.3 per day for the last 4 weeks. It seems clear that in some parts of the country, we need to do considerably more.
Dave's second link has a lot of guesses instead of real data, but seems refreshingly logically consistent in terms of a plan.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
In short, 1.3 needs to be below 0.5 for a few weeks, then maybe .9 until there is a vaccine. Getting to 0.5 would require significant limits like one trip outside per household every few days. Social distancing with two way masks (N95 protect only the wearer) and a new social norm of situational awareness and sanitation.
In this world, unnecessary extra risk factors like flying are not even on the table until the 0.9 stage.
The only hope would be that there are verifiable, drastically different stats in some parts of the country which puts them in the 0.9 stage already.
I'd like to see a more optimistic logical prognosis so I can go flying, but what is coming from the Whitehouse seems the reverse.
Dan Marotta
Mar 28, 2020, 11:54:24 AM3/28/20
to
We can fly in New Mexico. I have a self launcher and need not see
another person. If I have an accident, that's on me (over 47 years
without an accident). (Un)fortunately, the weather is not to my liking.
--
Dan, 5J
another person. If I have an accident, that's on me (over 47 years
without an accident). (Un)fortunately, the weather is not to my liking.
Dan, 5J
5Z
Mar 28, 2020, 12:11:44 PM3/28/20
to
How to tell if we're beating Covid-19.
Great explanation of how to understand the numbers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
5Z
Great explanation of how to understand the numbers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54XLXg4fYsc
5Z
Mike the Strike
Mar 28, 2020, 12:41:31 PM3/28/20
to
Here in Arizona, golf courses and gun stores are listed under "essential services" and are currently open, so it's hard to see how a gliding club could be a much worse risk. TUSC is officially closed, but open for flying to members taking suitable distancing precautions. One commercial glider operation is still open for launches but has suspended training. Few restrictions on those capable of self-launching.
However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.
Mike
However, coronavirus infections are currently expanding exponentially in Arizona at a rate faster than the national average (a factor of ten increase each week) and it's likely we may see further restrictions soon.
Mike
jpg...@gmail.com
Mar 28, 2020, 1:21:56 PM3/28/20
to
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 28, 2020, 1:27:22 PM3/28/20
to
Thats an absolute neccessity! I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
Dan
Dan
Jonathan St. Cloud
Mar 28, 2020, 5:54:24 PM3/28/20
to
Roy B.
Mar 28, 2020, 7:46:16 PM3/28/20
to
I need my guns to protect my horde of toilet paper
:-)
ROY
:-)
ROY
Duster
Mar 28, 2020, 10:19:43 PM3/28/20
to
A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
5Z
Mar 28, 2020, 11:09:28 PM3/28/20
to
Interesting article about the 1918 flu pandemic.
"...The studies reached another important conclusion: That relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse. St. Louis, for example, was so emboldened by its low death rate that the city lifted restrictions on public gatherings less than two months after the outbreak began. A rash of new cases soon followed. Of the cities that kept interventions in place, none experienced a second wave of high death rates."
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
I also heard that the cities with the flattest curves and most strict measures were in a better position to recover financially. Probably due to more people able to work and more people to buy the products, etc...
5Z
"...The studies reached another important conclusion: That relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse. St. Louis, for example, was so emboldened by its low death rate that the city lifted restrictions on public gatherings less than two months after the outbreak began. A rash of new cases soon followed. Of the cities that kept interventions in place, none experienced a second wave of high death rates."
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/
I also heard that the cities with the flattest curves and most strict measures were in a better position to recover financially. Probably due to more people able to work and more people to buy the products, etc...
5Z
Eric Greenwell
Mar 28, 2020, 11:45:01 PM3/28/20
to
newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their circulation.
--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us" to email me)
- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-the-guide-1
kinsell
Mar 29, 2020, 12:27:28 AM3/29/20
to
On 3/28/20 9:44 PM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>
>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by
>> orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs
>> it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
>> physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
>> empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>
>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>
>
> That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for the
> newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their
> circulation.
>
>
Worked for me without a subscription. Clear your cookies or try a
> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>
>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by
>> orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs
>> it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
>> physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
>> empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>
>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>
>
> That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for the
> newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their
> circulation.
>
>
different computer.
Duster
Mar 29, 2020, 12:37:35 AM3/29/20
to
This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
Mike the Strike
Mar 29, 2020, 1:23:47 AM3/29/20
to
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 9:37:35 PM UTC-7, Duster wrote:
> This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article
>
> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
Reports from the UK say much the same about unidentified cases, speculating that they could be 10 to 100 times greater than the confirmed cases. They have now identified that the disease was spreading in England in mid January and could have led to over 10,000 cases before the first one was identified a month or so later. There could have been around 100,000 cases in Britain at the beginning of March. I was there then!
> This link has the essentials of the full WSJ article
>
> https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
In late February and early March, I, my wife and sister-in-law all went down with flu-like symptoms eerily similar to those reported for coronavirus. My wife and I had travelled from TUS via LAX and LHR, picking up a rental car in London. Sure, it could have been regular flu or some other virus, but I am actually hoping it was the new one and that I now have some immunity.
Not sure I'd want to be the one opening up society, though!
Mike
Richard DalCanto
Mar 29, 2020, 9:22:37 AM3/29/20
to
Richard DalCanto MD, PhD
Richard DalCanto
Mar 29, 2020, 9:24:05 AM3/29/20
to
John Godfrey (QT)
Mar 29, 2020, 9:24:41 AM3/29/20
to
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
I remain amazed at the number of people who don't get that the real issue is the silent transmission by infected but unaware people. Talking about the "risk to me" or "areas that are not hotspots" completely misses the essence of the problem we are dealing with.
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
stu8...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 9:50:35 AM3/29/20
to
>A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read
> >
> > https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-professors-claim-more-data-needed-to-know-mortality-rate?_amp=true
> >
>
Thanks for a link that is open.
I find the article's numbers plausible, but take issue with the conclusion.
The published death rate was 0.3% to 3% of confirmed cases depending on available health care. These guys point out that there are lots (maybe 10x?) of unconfirmed cases so the overall rate is .06%. So maybe loosening restrictions makes economic sense.
Judging by how delayed restrictions worked out for health care systems in other countries, seems like a bad plan. Especially for old guys and health care workers.
10x more victims every 8 days is a target rich environment for the virus. These ratios apply no matter if the state had few or many cases.
This doesn't have to mean draconian measures, but you have to think. Kids in NYC are still collecting in playgrounds. I saw somebody walking their dog in HD yesterday. Masks are not the norm. Folks need to act as if everybody has the virus so few will. It feels like the reverse.
gregg...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 10:03:51 AM3/29/20
to
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 11:10:16 AM3/29/20
to
browser did you use?
Roy B.
Mar 29, 2020, 11:21:12 AM3/29/20
to
Eric:
Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
ROY
Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
ROY
stu8...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 11:27:13 AM3/29/20
to
> How is the soaring in Sweden?
Hopefully pretty good. We could get there also if we stopped giving the virus a target rich environment like they did.
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 11:32:23 AM3/29/20
to
Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
Covid infections are increasing.
Here's the deal for me:
- we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
- we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
- we don't have a vaccine
- we don't have a treatment
- at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
precautions.
gregg...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 11:44:19 AM3/29/20
to
kinsell
Mar 29, 2020, 12:19:14 PM3/29/20
to
On 3/29/20 9:10 AM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> kinsell wrote on 3/28/2020 9:27 PM:
>> On 3/28/20 9:44 PM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a
>>>> read:
>>>>
>>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high
>>>> by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the
>>>> costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
>>>> physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
>>>> empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>>
>>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>>>
>>>
>>> That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for
>>> the newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their
>>> circulation.
>>>
>>>
>> Worked for me without a subscription. Clear your cookies or try a
>> different computer.
>
> I've tried three browsers, clearing everything, but with the same
> results. What browser did you use?
>
I'm on Firefox running on Linux, but there's nothing magical about that.
> kinsell wrote on 3/28/2020 9:27 PM:
>> On 3/28/20 9:44 PM, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a
>>>> read:
>>>>
>>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high
>>>> by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the
>>>> costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
>>>> physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
>>>> empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>>
>>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>>>
>>>
>>> That article is not accessible without paying. Not a good policy for
>>> the newspaper, I think. A few free articles a month could build their
>>> circulation.
>>>
>>>
>> Worked for me without a subscription. Clear your cookies or try a
>> different computer.
>
> I've tried three browsers, clearing everything, but with the same
> results. What browser did you use?
>
Frequently hit the "you've reached your free limit" error when trying
to read articles on other subjects, such as Boeing. Usually can boot a
different OS on the same computer to get around that.
Stephen Szikora
Mar 29, 2020, 12:22:23 PM3/29/20
to
Haves and have nots ... what else is new.
Jonathan St. Cloud
Mar 29, 2020, 12:48:54 PM3/29/20
to
On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 5:42:56 PM UTC-7, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Here is the real answer! Russians and Kieth Richards: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RWN1CAD5P_g&feature=share&fbclid=IwAR2YF4L1UeSnFBoO2hKDcB0HJurBszNKLr6j59m9_oSPrs2NPlVqnYkfeIg
> Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
Dan Marotta
Mar 29, 2020, 12:49:21 PM3/29/20
to
:-D Oh, Jonathan...!
On 3/28/2020 3:54 PM, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
> One would think we could bribe a better class of governance.
--
Dan, 5J
On 3/28/2020 3:54 PM, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
> One would think we could bribe a better class of governance.
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
Mar 29, 2020, 12:51:53 PM3/29/20
to
Folks in my neck of the woods have literally thousands of rounds of
ammunition. In California they would be called crazies, and their
hoards, "arsenals". In Arizona or Texas, they'd be called pikers who've
made a nice start, but need more focus and attention to detail.
--
Dan, 5J
ammunition. In California they would be called crazies, and their
hoards, "arsenals". In Arizona or Texas, they'd be called pikers who've
made a nice start, but need more focus and attention to detail.
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
Mar 29, 2020, 1:03:12 PM3/29/20
to
I'm not a subscriber to WSJ (so I couldn't read the article), but my
concern throughout all of this is that nowhere have I seen, heard,
or read a plausible reason for these exceptional measures
considering the death tolls from previous epidemics and pandemics
such as Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, etc. Sure, I'm being hygienic,
and not joining public gatherings, but the death tolls from the
above mentioned diseases seem to be to have been much higher and
there was never any sort of panic like that we're experiencing now.
Please, someone, make some sense of it to me. And giving me panic speeches about how bad it could be in light of experience with pandemics of the past 30 years or so won't carry much weight.
Please, someone, make some sense of it to me. And giving me panic speeches about how bad it could be in light of experience with pandemics of the past 30 years or so won't carry much weight.
--
Dan, 5J
Dan, 5J
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 1:09:46 PM3/29/20
to
Dan thats about all your gonna get on here. Most of what I see is “doom-gloom” prognostigation. Irregardless of the serious nature of dealing with this particular strain of virus, folks are definitely Using this “crisis” to push socialist political agendas.
P.s. I’ve got my ammo lol
P.s. I’ve got my ammo lol
Dan Marotta
Mar 29, 2020, 1:20:32 PM3/29/20
to
Nah... The same information is available through multiple sources. Just
look and you'll find it without having to pay for it.
--
Dan, 5J
look and you'll find it without having to pay for it.
Dan, 5J
Dan Marotta
Mar 29, 2020, 1:24:22 PM3/29/20
to
Very good information, thanks!
But your calculation does not consider those who died, but had not been
tested. They would be considered in the numerator but not in the
denominator and so would skew the death rate higher.
On 3/29/2020 7:22 AM, Richard DalCanto wrote:
> So to get an accurate death rate you need to look at the death rate on a certain day, and then look at the positive test rates from 3 weeks prior.
>
> Richard DalCanto MD, PhD
--
Dan, 5J
But your calculation does not consider those who died, but had not been
tested. They would be considered in the numerator but not in the
denominator and so would skew the death rate higher.
On 3/29/2020 7:22 AM, Richard DalCanto wrote:
> So to get an accurate death rate you need to look at the death rate on a certain day, and then look at the positive test rates from 3 weeks prior.
>
> Richard DalCanto MD, PhD
Dan, 5J
stu8...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 2:06:54 PM3/29/20
to
> nowhere have I seen, heard, or read a plausible reason... there was never any sort of panic like that
I prefer concern instead of panic. There hasn't been serious widespread concern in the US like this since 1918. Not even polio or aids.
We are blessed that this is exceptional.
Sadly, the blessing is also a curse because it makes us complacent.
Given no vaccine, the best plan for handling a disease is to keep the case count low enough so that the public health folks handle it with case tracing and the public not much noticing.
Since 1918, the US has mostly managed to do this. The epidemics you mention did overwhelm public health folks and cause widespread concern, just not here. Without that lesson, the US social norms are not ready to get in front of the problem. In China, Sars got them ready, so they were able to get back ahead in a month or so.
I prefer concern instead of panic. There hasn't been serious widespread concern in the US like this since 1918. Not even polio or aids.
We are blessed that this is exceptional.
Sadly, the blessing is also a curse because it makes us complacent.
Given no vaccine, the best plan for handling a disease is to keep the case count low enough so that the public health folks handle it with case tracing and the public not much noticing.
Since 1918, the US has mostly managed to do this. The epidemics you mention did overwhelm public health folks and cause widespread concern, just not here. Without that lesson, the US social norms are not ready to get in front of the problem. In China, Sars got them ready, so they were able to get back ahead in a month or so.
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 4:06:55 PM3/29/20
to
K m
Mar 29, 2020, 4:06:55 PM3/29/20
to
On Saturday, March 28, 2020 at 11:27:22 AM UTC-6, uneekc...@gmail.com wrote:
I’ve got all the ammo I need however.
> Dan
Dan, Thanks for this! I can't get through my day without reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
Thanks
Kirk
gregg...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 4:22:44 PM3/29/20
to
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 4:23:03 PM3/29/20
to
Dan Marotta wrote on 3/29/2020 10:03 AM:
> I'm not a subscriber to WSJ (so I couldn't read the article), but my concern
> throughout all of this is that nowhere have I seen, heard, or read a plausible
> reason for these exceptional measures considering the death tolls from previous
> epidemics and pandemics such as Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, etc. Sure, I'm being
> hygienic, and not joining public gatherings, but the death tolls from the above
> mentioned diseases seem to be to have been much higher and there was never any
> sort of panic like that we're experiencing now.
>
> Please, someone, make some sense of it to me. And giving me panic speeches about
> how bad it /could/ be in light of experience with pandemics of the past 30 years
> I'm not a subscriber to WSJ (so I couldn't read the article), but my concern
> throughout all of this is that nowhere have I seen, heard, or read a plausible
> reason for these exceptional measures considering the death tolls from previous
> epidemics and pandemics such as Bird Flu, Swine Flu, Ebola, etc. Sure, I'm being
> hygienic, and not joining public gatherings, but the death tolls from the above
> mentioned diseases seem to be to have been much higher and there was never any
> sort of panic like that we're experiencing now.
>
> Please, someone, make some sense of it to me. And giving me panic speeches about
> or so won't carry much weight.
>
> On 3/28/2020 8:19 PM, Duster wrote:
>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>
>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
I can tell you a little bit upfront:
>
> On 3/28/2020 8:19 PM, Duster wrote:
>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>
>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
-Ebola is not nearly as contagious, as it is passed by direct contact with bodily
fluids
-Swine flu H1N1 was not nearly as contagious, or as fatal
This article compares the pandemics from 1918 to now:
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/how-deadly-is-the-coronavirus-compared-to-past-outbreaks#2009-%28H1N1%29-flu-pandemic
victori...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 5:31:02 PM3/29/20
to
I think this thread is making me queasy..
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 5:32:18 PM3/29/20
to
reading about how superior your line of reasoning is to every where else. And for reminding us that any problem in the world can be solved with more guns and ammo. (Isn't the run on guns what got us through Y2K?) Just brilliant!
Thanks
Kirk
Spoken like a true socialist. Once again any opinion contrary to the party line is denegrated. I’m not and never will tell you how to live your life, what to believe or what to fly. Is my “ammo” such a threat to you? I’m sorry about that.
Thanks
Kirk
chuc...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 5:39:16 PM3/29/20
to
Finger Lakes Soaring in Upstate, New York (340 miles from NYC) is shut down until further notice. Most of our CFI-Gs are past 60 yrs. We always start the season off with a Spring Check Ride, with an instructor, for all members including the instructors. As the club instructor most advanced into geezerhood, I'm not getting into an enclosed cockpit with anyone for a quite a while. Our season may have to start with solo only for experienced pilots and no instruction.
Chuck Zabinski
Chuck Zabinski
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 5:42:45 PM3/29/20
to
And oh by the way, this current crisis and its results on folks living in other parts of the country is exact living proof of the soundness of my choice of where to live. Good luck with things over your way. If we end up in total depression and zombie apocalipse and marshall law,(prob not this time round but maybe next time) you will definitely need the ammo more than I will.
Its called independent self reliant thinking, something rarely found these days with abnormal dependence on the gov’t to look after you, good luck with that.
Personal preparation alliviates living in fear.
Dan
Its called independent self reliant thinking, something rarely found these days with abnormal dependence on the gov’t to look after you, good luck with that.
Personal preparation alliviates living in fear.
Dan
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 7:00:27 PM3/29/20
to
gregg...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 8:16:38 PM3/29/20
to
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 7:00:27 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
> gregg...@gmail.com wrote on 3/29/2020 1:22 PM:
> > On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>
> >>> Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
> >>
> >> Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
> >>
> > Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?
>
> Old people? I've been talking about the 65 and over; who are you talking about?
Should we shut down the soaring season for everyone because pilots in a certain age range(75 is the new 40, except during cold and flu season) feel it too risky to come to the airport?
> gregg...@gmail.com wrote on 3/29/2020 1:22 PM:
> > On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 4:06:55 PM UTC-4, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>
> >>> Maybe it would be better to quarantine the high risk population and let everyone else party on. Covidoomers say we are all going to get it anyway, so let the strong get it without stopping the world. And the infirm can come out when all is clear. Or everyone else is dead and they have the planet to themselves.
> >>
> >> Sarcasm? You know the majority of soaring pilots is in the high-risk group, right?
> >>
> > Should we shut down soaring for everybody because old people are grounded?
>
> Old people? I've been talking about the 65 and over; who are you talking about?
cern...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 9:11:09 PM3/29/20
to
This thread really is illuminating.
Thanks, maybe.
Aldo Cernezzi
(from Northern Italy)
Thanks, maybe.
Aldo Cernezzi
(from Northern Italy)
murp...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 9:49:35 PM3/29/20
to
Hello from Shanghai. I’m a pilot for one of the US cargo carriers here for work. I thought I would share my experience since there seems to be quite a disconnect between where we are in the US versus the thinking here.
Before we left the airplane for the hotel we were required to put on masks and had our temperature taken. Every person we encountered, leaving the airplane, immigration, health, customs, had full contagion suits on with eye protection. We rode in a car that had been fully swabbed down between rides. Arriving at the hotel we entered through a special door for foreigners and followed a roped off lane to a designated elevator. Everyone at the hotel had full suits on. They took us to the 34th floor were we stood isolated as they took our passports and credit cards to the lobby to get us keys. For the last 40 hours we’ve been shut in our hotel room with only room service. When they deliver the food they are wearing the suits and take our temperature.
In other words they are worried about us infecting them and they are serious about this virus. Overkill - maybe but they’ve got a handle on this. I’m concerned that the problem in the US will be made worse by our failure to take decisive action.
My club, Harris Hill, is shut down. That’s a bummer because just last week I was happily sanding new gelcoat on my fuselage to Bob Marley tunes all alone midweek in a huge hangar. But I guess I’d hate to infect one of the oldsters in the club since they are some of my favorite souls on earth.
There has been no decision made to cancel or postpone the WGC this year. There also seems to be no word from the SSA about the nationals. Anyone know anything?
Sean Murphy
Before we left the airplane for the hotel we were required to put on masks and had our temperature taken. Every person we encountered, leaving the airplane, immigration, health, customs, had full contagion suits on with eye protection. We rode in a car that had been fully swabbed down between rides. Arriving at the hotel we entered through a special door for foreigners and followed a roped off lane to a designated elevator. Everyone at the hotel had full suits on. They took us to the 34th floor were we stood isolated as they took our passports and credit cards to the lobby to get us keys. For the last 40 hours we’ve been shut in our hotel room with only room service. When they deliver the food they are wearing the suits and take our temperature.
In other words they are worried about us infecting them and they are serious about this virus. Overkill - maybe but they’ve got a handle on this. I’m concerned that the problem in the US will be made worse by our failure to take decisive action.
My club, Harris Hill, is shut down. That’s a bummer because just last week I was happily sanding new gelcoat on my fuselage to Bob Marley tunes all alone midweek in a huge hangar. But I guess I’d hate to infect one of the oldsters in the club since they are some of my favorite souls on earth.
There has been no decision made to cancel or postpone the WGC this year. There also seems to be no word from the SSA about the nationals. Anyone know anything?
Sean Murphy
tow...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 10:28:16 PM3/29/20
to
On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 6:24:41 AM UTC-7, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
The media is largely responsible, because reporters generally have very little science or math education. They are scientific idiots, and write the sort of articles expected.
> On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
> > Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
>
> I remain amazed at the number of people who don't get that the real issue is the silent transmission by infected but unaware people. Talking about the "risk to me" or "areas that are not hotspots" completely misses the essence of the problem we are dealing with.
> > Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...
>
The media is largely responsible, because reporters generally have very little science or math education. They are scientific idiots, and write the sort of articles expected.
tow...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 10:31:43 PM3/29/20
to
tow...@gmail.com
Mar 29, 2020, 10:38:05 PM3/29/20
to
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 11:08:10 PM3/29/20
to
if the 65+ group feels threatened by infected younger people, soaring
opportunities might be very reduced. That age group does a lot of towing,
instructing, supporting the towplane by taking tows, and generally making sure
things run smoothly.
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 11:18:12 PM3/29/20
to
tow...@gmail.com wrote on 3/29/2020 7:31 PM:
> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>>
>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>
>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>
>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>
>> Here's the deal for me:
>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>> - we don't have a vaccine
>> - we don't have a treatment
>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>
>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
>> precautions.
>
> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ that’s worth a read:
>>>
>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
>>>
>>> https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464
>>
>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns totaling about
>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month. Compare that to four flu
>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have been decreasing,
>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>
>> Here's the deal for me:
>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu does
>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>> - we don't have a vaccine
>> - we don't have a treatment
>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>
>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact, and other
>> precautions.
>
> If you look at actuarial tables, you'll probably find your risk of dying this year is about the same as the 'high risk' covid group.
My point is getting infected increases my risk of dying, as the actuarial tables
don't account for Covid-19.
Eric Greenwell
Mar 29, 2020, 11:30:27 PM3/29/20
to
Roy B. wrote on 3/29/2020 8:21 AM:
> Eric:
> Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
> ROY
NYT, Washington Post, and many others, typically allow a few free articles per
> Eric:
> Many of the news sources (like wsj) give prospective subscribers 3 or 4 free inline articles before they must subscribe or be blocked out. You might be over your limit of free articles. It is intentionally designed to be frustrating - so that you are forced to subscribe.
> ROY
month. The few times in the last 5 or 6 years I've tried to view a WSJ article, I
hit the paywall. How did Chrome, which I've never used for the WSJ, not let me
read a free article? Even my wife's computer, which has never been to the WSJ,
can't get a free article. It's a puzzle.
2G
Mar 30, 2020, 2:17:19 AM3/30/20
to
Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.
Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.
The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.
Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.
Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%.
ADVERTISEMENT
In Iceland, deCode Genetics is working with the government to perform widespread testing. In a sample of nearly 2,000 entirely asymptomatic people, researchers estimated disease prevalence of just over 1%. Iceland’s first case was reported on Feb. 28, weeks behind the U.S. It’s plausible that the proportion of the U.S. population that has been infected is double, triple or even 10 times as high as the estimates from Iceland. That also implies a dramatically lower fatality rate.
The best (albeit very weak) evidence in the U.S. comes from the National Basketball Association. Between March 11 and 19, a substantial number of NBA players and teams received testing. By March 19, 10 out of 450 rostered players were positive. Since not everyone was tested, that represents a lower bound on the prevalence of 2.2%. The NBA isn’t a representative population, and contact among players might have facilitated transmission. But if we extend that lower-bound assumption to cities with NBA teams (population 45 million), we get at least 990,000 infections in the U.S. The number of cases reported on March 19 in the U.S. was 13,677, more than 72-fold lower. These numbers imply a fatality rate from Covid-19 orders of magnitude smaller than it appears.
How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors.
The epidemic started in China sometime in November or December. The first confirmed U.S. cases included a person who traveled from Wuhan on Jan. 15, and it is likely that the virus entered before that: Tens of thousands of people traveled from Wuhan to the U.S. in December. Existing evidence suggests that the virus is highly transmissible and that the number of infections doubles roughly every three days. An epidemic seed on Jan. 1 implies that by March 9 about six million people in the U.S. would have been infected. As of March 23, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, there were 499 Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. If our surmise of six million cases is accurate, that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.
This does not make Covid-19 a nonissue. The daily reports from Italy and across the U.S. show real struggles and overwhelmed health systems. But a 20,000- or 40,000-death epidemic is a far less severe problem than one that kills two million. Given the enormous consequences of decisions around Covid-19 response, getting clear data to guide decisions now is critical. We don’t know the true infection rate in the U.S. Antibody testing of representative samples to measure disease prevalence (including the recovered) is crucial. Nearly every day a new lab gets approval for antibody testing, so population testing using this technology is now feasible.
If we’re right about the limited scale of the epidemic, then measures focused on older populations and hospitals are sensible. Elective procedures will need to be rescheduled. Hospital resources will need to be reallocated to care for critically ill patients. Triage will need to improve. And policy makers will need to focus on reducing risks for older adults and people with underlying medical conditions.
A universal quarantine may not be worth the costs it imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and physical health. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the empirical basis of the current lockdowns.
Don Johnstone
Mar 30, 2020, 6:45:04 AM3/30/20
to
At 03:18 30 March 2020, Eric Greenwell wrote:
>tow...@gmail.com wrote on 3/29/2020 7:31 PM:
>> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric
Greenwell wrote:
>>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ
that=E2=80=99s w=
>tow...@gmail.com wrote on 3/29/2020 7:31 PM:
>> On Sunday, March 29, 2020 at 8:32:23 AM UTC-7, Eric
Greenwell wrote:
>>> Duster wrote on 3/28/2020 7:19 PM:
>>>> A more tempered, but plausible, opinion from the WSJ
>orth a read:
>>>>
>>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be
too high by=
>>>>
>>>> Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?
>>>> Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be
> orders of magnitude. A universal quarantine may not be worth the
costs i=
>t imposes on the economy, community and individual mental and
physical he=
>alth. We should undertake immediate steps to evaluate the
empirical basis=
deadly-as-they=
>-say-11585088464
>>>
>>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns
totalin=
>>>
>>> I live in Washington State. In my area, with four nearby towns
>g about
>>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month.
Compare that t=
>>> 250,000, we've had 5 covid-19 deaths in just one month.
>o four flu
>>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have
been de=
>>> deaths in 5 months (flu season), and while flu infections have
>creasing,
>>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>>
>>> Here's the deal for me:
>>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu
does=
>>> Covid infections are increasing.
>>>
>>> Here's the deal for me:
>>> - we don't know if this will have a seasonal decline like the flu
>
>>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>>> - we don't have a vaccine
>>> - we don't have a treatment
>>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>>
>>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact,
and =
>>> - we know it is much more infectious with higher mortality
>>> - we don't have a vaccine
>>> - we don't have a treatment
>>> - at 77, I am a member of the high risk group
>>>
>>> I totally support our current efforts to restrict social contact,
>other
>>> precautions.
>>=20
>> If you look at actuarial tables, you'll probably find your risk of
dyin=
>g this year is about the same as the 'high risk' covid group.
>
>My point is getting infected increases my risk of dying, as the
actuarial=
>
>My point is getting infected increases my risk of dying, as the
> tables=20
>don't account for Covid-19.
>
>
>--=20
>
>
>Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA (change ".netto" to ".us"
to email=
> me)
>- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
>
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-
th=
>- "A Guide to Self-Launching Sailplane Operation"
>
https://sites.google.com/site/motorgliders/publications/download-
>e-guide-1
>
I think as a country you face two problems, one is the disease itself
and the other is your reaction to it. Like it or not your country is
being judged on the actions of your government, mainly your
president who appears to be hell bent on earning the name
"Spinning Trump" We see the number of aircraft criss-crossing the
USA and wonder why you are still allowing the spread of the disease.
We wonder why our government is still allowing aircraft from the
USA, particularly New York to land here. What you guys are doing
and saying over there is really scary. I feel that it is insensitive to
talk about exaggerated figures, particularly deaths on a forum that
can be seen in northern Italy.
The US could find itself a pariah, health wise, in the rest of the world
if your government(s) don't get a grip.
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 30, 2020, 8:55:35 AM3/30/20
to
We are already considered a pariah. Nothing new there. Even the countries that we bled and died to free treat the US like shit. Most of us dont give a rip what the EU or Canada or the others think about us. We do our own thing we always have, always will. While I hear lots of US bashing I sure dont see any other country out there coming to OUR aid, I dont see anyone sending us ventilators or personal protection equipment but they sure expect us to jump and run when they have a crisis.
Don Johnstone
Mar 30, 2020, 9:15:04 AM3/30/20
to
At 12:55 30 March 2020, uneekc...@gmail.com wrote:
>We are already considered a pariah. Nothing new there. Even the
countries
>t=
>We are already considered a pariah. Nothing new there. Even the
countries
>hat we bled and died to free treat the US like shit. Most of us dont
give
>a=
give
> rip what the EU or Canada or the others think about us. We do our
own
>thin=
own
>g we always have, always will. While I hear lots of US bashing I sure
dont
>=
dont
>see any other country out there coming to OUR aid, I dont see anyone
>sendin=
>g us ventilators or personal protection equipment but they sure
expect us
>t=
expect us
>o jump and run when they have a crisis.
That is actually not true, we have frequently come to your aid, and you
have come to ours. This despite dumping all that bloody tea, for which
we have yet to forgive you. We do, or most of us do, share your dislike
of the EU.
>
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 30, 2020, 9:25:34 AM3/30/20
to
LOL well ya just gotta forgive us for that tea business, we had cut a deal on a shipload of coffee right before lol. Its just my hackles always rise when folks continually blame the ills of the world on america and our independant lifestyle.
Where is all the condemnation toward china which has given us every pandemic we’ve had the last 50 years, and who ALWAYS spins the truth about their real situation. I guess its not politically correct to point a finger at them, buts its always ok to down the usa. Thats the hypocracy that gets to me.
Dan
Where is all the condemnation toward china which has given us every pandemic we’ve had the last 50 years, and who ALWAYS spins the truth about their real situation. I guess its not politically correct to point a finger at them, buts its always ok to down the usa. Thats the hypocracy that gets to me.
Dan
Martin Gregorie
Mar 30, 2020, 9:59:54 AM3/30/20
to
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 13:09:47 +0000, Don Johnstone wrote:
> That is actually not true, we have frequently come to your aid, and you
> have come to ours. This despite dumping all that bloody tea, for which
> we have yet to forgive you. We do, or most of us do, share your dislike
> of the EU.
>
Ironically, the whole tea-dumping bit seems to have been triggered by the
> That is actually not true, we have frequently come to your aid, and you
> have come to ours. This despite dumping all that bloody tea, for which
> we have yet to forgive you. We do, or most of us do, share your dislike
> of the EU.
>
misdoings of the East India Company - see Peter Frankopan's "The New Silk
Roads" for details. Its well worth reading for the light it sheds on
global history starting from the dawn of writing up to the present day.
There are much worse things you can do than to read this while we can't
fly.
--
Martin | martin at
Gregorie | gregorie dot org
chip.b...@gmail.com
Mar 30, 2020, 10:20:28 AM3/30/20
to
Please don't judge the U.S. by what a few loudmouths on this newsgroup or some of our leaders say any more than we judge other countries by what a few media outlets and politicians there say about us.
We are all in this together. About all I can add is that because the U.S. is such a vast, diverse country, the experience in some areas can be very different than in others. I live in the New York City area and have elderly parents in a health care facility in Florida and can relate very much to what is happening in, say, Italy and Spain right now.
Let people make noise. Ignore most of it. We will get through this.
Chip Bearden
We are all in this together. About all I can add is that because the U.S. is such a vast, diverse country, the experience in some areas can be very different than in others. I live in the New York City area and have elderly parents in a health care facility in Florida and can relate very much to what is happening in, say, Italy and Spain right now.
Let people make noise. Ignore most of it. We will get through this.
Chip Bearden
uneekc...@gmail.com
Mar 30, 2020, 10:41:09 AM3/30/20
to
Martin and my other friends, I think old England would have considered america’s founding fathers the “loudmouths” of their day, something to think about.
Mike N.
Mar 30, 2020, 10:45:09 AM3/30/20
to
I've been skeptical of the projections of mortality rates for some time.
The article about the Swiss, and their reading of this is similar. As well as the recent change of the model to a reduced mortality rate by the author of the Imperial College bears out my original skepticisim.
From the artical on how Switzerland is still open:
"His team at the Public Health Agency of Sweden is critical of the Imperial College paper that warned this month that 250,000 people in the UK would die if the government failed to introduce more draconian measures. A week later Johnson ordered the police to implement a partial lockdown to combat the virus, telling people they “must stay at home”.
“We have had a fair amount of people looking at it and they are sceptical,” says Tegnell. “They think Imperial chose a number of variables that gave a prognosis that was quite pessimistic, and that you could just as easily have chosen other variables that gave you another outcome. It’s not a peer-reviewed paper. It might be right, but it might also be terribly wrong. In Sweden, we are a bit surprised that it’s had such an impact.”
I'm not being crass here, certainly this virus is one of the worst ever. That being said, real science allows for the correction of a theory based on newer data. That data is being gathered now as we get more real world evidence of the actual numbers, both infection rates and mortality rates.
The article about the Swiss, and their reading of this is similar. As well as the recent change of the model to a reduced mortality rate by the author of the Imperial College bears out my original skepticisim.
From the artical on how Switzerland is still open:
"His team at the Public Health Agency of Sweden is critical of the Imperial College paper that warned this month that 250,000 people in the UK would die if the government failed to introduce more draconian measures. A week later Johnson ordered the police to implement a partial lockdown to combat the virus, telling people they “must stay at home”.
“We have had a fair amount of people looking at it and they are sceptical,” says Tegnell. “They think Imperial chose a number of variables that gave a prognosis that was quite pessimistic, and that you could just as easily have chosen other variables that gave you another outcome. It’s not a peer-reviewed paper. It might be right, but it might also be terribly wrong. In Sweden, we are a bit surprised that it’s had such an impact.”
I'm not being crass here, certainly this virus is one of the worst ever. That being said, real science allows for the correction of a theory based on newer data. That data is being gathered now as we get more real world evidence of the actual numbers, both infection rates and mortality rates.
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