Significant drop in uploads?

[Erhard Bernstein]

Dear all,

I've stumbled over the IPAAT's (http://www.panoramio.com/user/472658?with_photo_id=100007068) statistics,

- one showing the total number of uploaded pictures vs. the date when it has been reached: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/100007066
- and the other showing the number of days it took to reach the next full million http://www.panoramio.com/photo/100007068.

You'll notice, of course, that in the beginning until ~ 2010, the speed picked up to reach a quite narrow "corridor" of 16 ... 24 days for a million uploaded fotos which corresponds to ~ 42,000 ... 62,000 uploaded fotos per day. In 2013, this range has become even narrower with 19 ... 24 days per new million (42,000 ... 53,000 uploaded fotos per day).

Of course, we all know, this is based on the foto ID's so there is no telling how many fotos have been taken down in the meantime, but this is all we have.

On Dec1st, foto number 100,000,000 has been uploaded. Since then, some 678,000 have been added, and it has been 17 days now. So, the present rate is less than 40,000 per day. Even more so: Since December 9th (first uploaded foto that day: #100347751) and December 16th (first foto: #100558096) the rate is at no more than 30,000 per day! That's a drop by 40 % against the long term average!

Maybe it is premature to draw conclusions now, but it seems like a collateral damage of the pumpkin pie release.

What does the community think?

Best greetings, Erhard

[Panamon-Creel]

IMO a little too early to tell.

Do the current issues/changes have a negative impact on uploads, IMO yes but we also have to consider seasonal fluctuations when using short time period sample. 

[© Tom Cooper]

There you go, being all scientific and responsible.  I think it's more fun to declare the impending death of Panoramio.

 

Tom

[Erhard Bernstein]

Hm, yes, I was thinking of seasonal fluctuations first, but then, you can't see any of that sort in the previous years - so there must be another reason. Let's see how it continues!

[Panamon-Creel]

Tom,

already enough speculations, conspiracy theories, anger, boycott attempts,...etc. out there and adding to them makes IMO not a hoot of a difference on the overall outcome, whatever that will be.

Since the Pano Migration mess, Pano Forum change in the face and pano Groups abandoned ugly child I came to realize that there are things in play that go beyond my comprehension and that there are way more important things in life for me to worry about.

So I try to stay neutral, try to pass information back to the team that I deem as important and hope it helps on moving forward.  

[Panamon-Creel]

Hmm although not huge I do remember some seasonal December dips and January spikes.

I also remember system failure influenced short term drops that where quickly neutralized with higher uploads after those occurred.

IMO the trend has to be analyzed over a longer period of time to get the bigger picture.

[Adam Elmquist]

Quoting myself from another thread View count decline:

I'm noticing a trend with some of my groups, some members within my groups have left saying that they are posting more to other sites.  I had a handful of people message me saying the new design is hard to understand "things like the blue camera for uploading no words caught a lot people off guard" doesn't look well they left my group(s).  Another factor people are not uploading to Panoramio as much these days its harder on mobile devices, most Apple iOS devices even OSX have direct uploading methods builtin out of box Like iPhoto buttons that goto FaceBook, Flickr, and iCloud, nothing really for Google...

[df3vi]

Maybe Google had hoped for an increase in ranking like Flickr had mid year, see here:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/flickr.com
however the effect was just so much smaller:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/panoramio.com
and even ICloud is ranked much higher:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/icloud.com

But maybe Google's interest is just shifting away from Panoramio and Google Earth, and towards Maps and G+:
http://google-latlong.blogspot.ru/2013/12/create-your-own-street-view.html

I don't know how much interest this draws, and if it really does take off, or just ends similar like Microsoft's almost unknown Photosynth
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/photosynth.net
that is not even actively supported in Bing Maps.

[Wim Constant]

The oldest photo I could find on Panoramio is number 15,  from 29-07-2005

The first million was reached in just over 1,5 years,  on 24-02-2007

The second million took a little more than 2 months,   on 30-04-2007

10.000.000 was reached a year later,   on 07-05-2008

Within one year we got 20.000.000,   on 13-03-2009

30.000.000, 9 months later,  on 17-12-2009

40.000.001   on 29-08-2010   =  7 months + 12 days later

50.000.000   on 25-03-2011   =  6 months + 27 days later

60.000.000   on 03-10-2011   =  6 months +   8 days later

70.000.000   on 10-04-2012   =  6 months +   7 days later

80.000.000   on 04-10-2012   =  5 months + 24 days later

90.000.000   on 08-05-2013   =  5 months +   4 days later

100.000.000 on 01-12-2013   =  6 months + 23 days later

It varies, but the difference is not terribly.

But I must admit I had expected to reach the 100.000.000 sooner.

Op woensdag 18 december 2013 19:29:14 UTC+1 schreef Erhard Bernstein:

[Erhard Bernstein]

Well, Wim in order to see effects, you must use shorter intervals, not tens of millions but millions. Please refer to the links in my original post and the further evaluation I have made there. A drop by 40 % is noticable, and there has not been a remarkable seasonal effect in the years before. Why not admit it? This fiddling around with the site is discouraging!

[hvbemmel]

I can imagine that a newcomer will run away immediately instead of making a long survey for a button he perhaps could use to upload a photo. When I would be curious about a site and I see no way to enter I will leave too. Internet is about quick and user friendly, the moment that doesn´t work...... next!    

Op donderdag 19 december 2013 14:41:05 UTC+1 schreef Erhard Bernstein:

Well, **Wim** in order to see effects, you must use shorter intervals, not tens of millions but millions. Please refer to the links in my original post and the further evaluation I have made there. A drop by 40 % is noticable, and there has not been a remarkable seasonal effect in the years before. Why not admit it? This fiddling around with the site is discouraging!

 

Am Donnerstag, 19. Dezember 2013 11:45:07 UTC+1 schrieb Wim Constant:

[IPAAT]

My thoughts here.

[Erhard Bernstein]

Update: foto #101,000,000 has been uploaded around midnight of Dec. 28th. This means that for the latest full million, it took 27 and 1/2 days - with an average of ~36,400 uploads per day.

Considering the most recent period since Dec. 9th, that means an average of ~ 32,600. These are the lowest figures since early 2009 and have to be compared to values up to 60,000 and more in 2012!

Am Donnerstag, 19. Dezember 2013 14:41:05 UTC+1 schrieb Erhard Bernstein:

Well, Wim in order to see effects, you must use shorter intervals, not tens of millions but millions. Please refer to the links in my original post and the further evaluation I have made there. A drop by 40 % is noticable, and there has not been a remarkable seasonal effect in the years before. Why not admit it? This fiddling around with the site is discouraging!

 

Am Donnerstag, 19. Dezember 2013 11:45:07 UTC+1 schrieb Wim Constant: