Fire Outlook: ‘As Bad as It Can Be’
Last year, California, Oregon and Washington saw their
worst fire seasons on record, with megafires burning up and down the coast. Dry conditions have set the stage for another bad fire year in 2021.
High temperatures and low precipitation have dried out grasses, shrubs and other greenery, and soils are extremely dry for this time of year.
Already, twice as many acres have burned in California as during the same period last year. The state’s fire season has expanded in recent decades, starting earlier and
ending later than it used to.
“Not everything is predictable,” said Dr. Swain of U.C.L.A., referring to events like the
dry lightning strikes that ignited many major fires in 2020. “But of the predictable elements — how dry is the soil? And will it get better in the next months? — those are as bad as it can be.”
“Most of the west is at increased risk of large severe fires this year,” he said. “That may sound like a broken record, but maybe that’s the point.”