IEA on future oil production we are passing peak...
thingy
The lines are interesting considering what they said oil production was
going to do in 2004 and 2005, ie go up over the next 30 years...but look
at 2007 and 2008 instead of going up by 5MBD its actually forecast to
drop by 5MBD....that is a huge change....of course the first figures
(2004 and 2005) were demand estimate/driven ie what the world
wanted....the latest is what the world is going to get and its
less....the difference is the huge increase in price....
Add in the that that is a 1MBD drop per year, or 1.2% where the
expectation is at some point 4% per annum...takes no account of the
middle east actually using more....or increased demand....so...
Then they show for 2008 that production will rise....no one (at least
geologists) expect a rise, its downhill all the way...
regards
Thing
Roger_Nickel
> http://peakwatch.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/
On a quick calculation the energy density of the global economy is around
3 Kwh/US$, the energy density of petrol is near enough to 10 Kwh/litre.
Once petrol price approaches US$3/litre there is no, in Marxist terms,
surplus value left and restructuring of the economy is required before
price can go higher in real terms. Oil is still for the time being mostly
sold in US dollars so the US treasury can always warm up the printing
presses and print more money but what is needed is increased economic
efficiency in terms of output of goods and services per litre of oil.
J.Wilson
"Roger_Nickel" <rni...@RemoveThis-actrix.co.nz> wrote in message
news:4875...@news2.actrix.gen.nz...
What the 'us treasury' are printing is'nt money, it's virtual paper and the
rest of the world is waking up to that fact. The whole growth economy
scenario is a caucus race, has to keep running to stay in the same place,
and since all resources are finite can't continue forever.
Roger_Nickel
> thing wrote:
>> Roger_Nickel wrote:
>>> On Thu, 10 Jul 2008 15:55:11 +1200, thingy wrote:
>>>
>>>> http://peakwatch.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/
>>> uncategorized/2008/07/08/eia_high_price_case_forecasts.jpg
>>>> The lines are interesting considering what they said oil production
>>>> was going to do in 2004 and 2005, ie go up over the next 30
>>>> years...but look at 2007 and 2008 instead of going up by 5MBD its
>>>> actually forecast to drop by 5MBD....that is a huge change....of
>>>> course the first figures (2004 and 2005) were demand estimate/driven
>>>> ie what the world wanted....the latest is what the world is going to
>>>> get and its less....the difference is the huge increase in price....
>>>>
>>>> Add in the that that is a 1MBD drop per year, or 1.2% where the
>>>> expectation is at some point 4% per annum...takes no account of the
>>>> middle east actually using more....or increased demand....so...
>>>>
>>>> Then they show for 2008 that production will rise....no one (at least
>>>> geologists) expect a rise, its downhill all the way...
>>>>
>>>> regards
>>>>
>>>> Thing
>>
>> uh bit of a tangent....my comment is more aimed towards the IEA being
>> pretty useless IMHO....
>>
>> If this year they say a slight drop circa 1%, what is their November
>> report going to say....
>>
>> In oil production terms most (all?) oil geologists I read say 4~15%
>> drop per annum production is quite possible. Meanwhile Arabia uses more
>> internally, so there is less to sell abroad and the global demand is
>> rising at 3~4%...so even on the IEAs figures adding up gets to 5% per
>> annum less oil.
>
> Latest, Mexico's Cantrell (worlds 3rd? largest oil field) drops 34%,
> Mexico might stop selling oil to the USA, keeping it for its internal
> use.
>
> regards
>
> Thing
This from Business WeeK
:- http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/jul2008/
db2008079_865368.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily
"Saudi Oil: A Crude Awakening on Supply?
The Saudis say they can ramp up production to 12.5 million barrels a day.
But a field-by-field breakdown obtained by BusinessWeek shows that's not
likely.---------"
The data show Saudi Arabian oil production increasing by 6-7% as the much
delayed super projects come online and then peaking out in 2010. North
sea oil production is in free-fall and Canterall (Mexico) going the same
way. An oil production decline of 5% p.a. means that production will be
halved in about 15 years. An increase in price from $100 to $140 a barrel
since last christmass has driven demand for 5 million barrels a day from
the market {"demand destruction") according to a US report I read a few
days ago --can't find the link, sorry. What price increase over the next
15 years will drive demand for 45 million barrel a day off the market?.
Mathew Simmons says that oil will reach US$600 a barrel and, with the US
treasury cranking up money supply as fast as they can without totally
crashing the US economy, it might.
As to why the US seems particularly caught up in this?; I think that
it's to do with mindset. Log on to a US news site--- search for the words
"consumer"--"customer"--"user"--"human being" (good luck with that one)--
etc. Try the same in other countries. There are big differences in
descriptive language.
The Europeans gave the political direction of their society over to the
intellectuals in the late nineteenth century and the whole outfit turned
into a slaughter house. They learned a lot of things the hard way.
American economic ideology (based on abundance and constant growth) has
not been tested up until now. Back in the 1950's Vance Packard pointed
out the problems associated with breaking down social, moral and ethical
norms in order to sell more stuff. The ideal consumer is isolated and
with no reference points other than those provided by the merchandisers.
The process of political manipulation is the same in corporate fascism as
it in any other totalitarian regime.