This regression was "caused" by a reftest-only change (so, NPOTB) which couldn't possibly have impacted Tp results.
I'm guessing this was just caused by the uplift (so, it regressed [maybe gradually] while this code was on mozilla-central over the past 6 weeks).
The regression does seem pretty real -- looking at the graph, it's mostly stuck at a new, higher value. There is one point that dropped back down to the earlier baseline, though (which makes it believable that the regression really happened before Kyle's test-only patch, and the samples before his were just sporadically low in a post-regression world).