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One tool you could use is Randy Oliver's varroa model which you can download from his site at scientificbeekeeping.com. I ran his model based on the info for your bees: nucleus colony, 5 frames, started on April 1, with a mite migration setting of 1, which means that your bees are in an area where throughout the season there is some drift of mites (the range is 0 to 4, with 4 meaning you are surrounded by poorly managed apiaries). Starting mite count of 100 mites in the whole colony (which I would estimate is about 1% assuming about 10000 bees in the nuc, which is about 3 full seams of bees in a 5 frame nuc) I then put in two rounds of 1/2 doses treatment with formic acid basically on Aug 1 and Aug 15 with an efficacy for each dose of 50%. Based on Randy's model your hive would crash out, meaning fail, around November 1st.....
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Lots of fun discussion here that I’ve missed. I’ll try not to write a novel trying to involve myself now.
But, Sorry Diane! Sorry to hear that your bees perished and so early. Also interesting that it seemed to happen so quickly. I wasn’t entirely clear on the timing, but any chance the mite treatment damaged your queen and the last large hatches you saw were kind of the last from before she was damaged?
Jimmer, I’m so glad to hear your bees are doing well, I hope that continues through winter.
Rich, in your model, you listed the efficacy of the formic at 50% but of the thymol as 95%. I was under the impression that formic was at least as effective as thymol. If not, I’m regretting my choice to switch treatments to try to avoid the robbing I think the thymol induced. I can manage the robbing if it’s that much better a treatment.
More generally, I do think there is a lot going on that we don’t know much about. Joe points out the different diseases that the mites bring. I’m starting to think that this is the real problem and I’m not sure that treatments will ever bring the mite numbers low enough to stop these. This is one of the reasons I have been so opposed to the travelling bees, that quickly spread everything throughout the country.
As for winter survival on the ‘treadmill,’ I have been keeping bees for almost 10 years now. I have had very good overwintering success with a single thymol treatment in the fall until very recently. The last two years have been poor for me. This has also corresponded with when I expanded from 20ish hives to over a hundred. I attributed my extra losses to more hands-off management and over-splitting combined with poor weather both of the last years. This year, I did a bit better, although fell a bit flat in my final feeding and prep. But, I split significantly less and my hives were much stronger (and more productive) that the last 2 years. We’ll see if this makes a difference in my survival. The other factor that is different is that I haven’t been expanding as aggressively. The last two years I finally had ‘enough’ drawn comb that I didn’t require the bees to draw as much. But, of course this means the bees were getting used comb instead of the new comb they were forced to build all those years I was expanding. This could also be a factor. Or, in an effort to expand quickly a couple years back, I got some packages, which I hadn’t done since I first started. Maybe they brought diseases. Or maybe I had been lucky to accidentally get superior genetics and these packages watered them down.
Anyway, the last couple years means I can no longer take survival for granted like I used to. I intend to slow-down, keep fewer bees and be more purposeful in my actions. I want to understand which of the factors are actually important to different outcomes. I want to control who my queens are mating with in an attempt to actually make progress genetically. I’m excited to work with Joe on our breeding projects where we have a plan that I think could actually work in creating a couple controlled breeding yards.
The other difficulty in finding large scale beekeepers to get data from, is that the majority of large scale keepers send their bees to CA, which isn’t particularly relevant to those of use who stay home.
: Joseph Bessetti
Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2019 2:44 PM
To: mad...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [madbees] Hive autopsy, 2019 edition
Yes, that is an option, but it's very different from what I'm asking right now. I'm interested in learning how the treatment treadmill is actually working for people locally. For most beekeepers, that is the only thing they know. Until someone starts teaching/mentoring something else on a broader scale to this audience/club it's likely to stay that way.
I'm particularly interested in hive losses the last few winters because I've known of some people to be hard hit. There is at least one new virus that was rare up until about 5 years ago (VDV1) but is now being found in nearly every sample tested by the USDA ARS. There is also a bacteria (SS1) that has been researched at UW Stout that seems to be getting more attention, but not nearly as much as the virus research. The mites themselves have not changed, but the payload they carry seems to be getting nastier and nastier. 20 years ago mite thresholds for treatment were often 10% (10 mites per 100 bees or more), but today a lot of those recommendations are now at 1%. Even with treatments at these lower thresholds colonies are still dying with high virus levels. If anyone has actually sent samples to the USDA-ARS for testing I'd be interested in hearing what they reported back to you. Everyone is thinking it, but afraid to say it, that interstate transport of colonies, including packages and nucs, is spreading these viruses.
When the mite treatments stop "working", that is when more people will become open to alternatives such as the rapid expansion model that you use Greg. So, I'm asking the members of this club, particularly those who have kept bees for more than 3 years, and particularly those who have kept 30 or more hives, are the mite treatments working for you? If so, what approach are you using? If not, what do you plan to try next?
Non-treatment options can be a topic for another day.
Joe
From: mad...@googlegroups.com <mad...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Greg V <voro...@gmail.com>
Sent: Tuesday, November 12, 2019 9:55 AM
To: mad...@googlegroups.com <mad...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [madbees] Hive autopsy, 2019 edition
I'd say instead of staying on the mite-treating treadmil - leverage the normal and natural trait of the bees - fecundity.
Learn and practice your own propagation - now that is a good treadmill to stay on (regardless of the pests, infections, and the climate change - forget after chasing these - they will always be ahead of you).
An example, this year from single over-wintered queen (a good speciment, to be sure) I was able to expand to to 7 viable units - just for this one line.
Surely, some of these will drop off over the winter (no treatment regiment can be harsh).
But at the moment, I still have more bees than I can would like to have.
Back to Joe's comment - you winter a single colony (somehow) - from that point on really no reason to not be sustainable.
I do think getting 2-3 good queens at the very onset (from a reliable, treatment free source) is a very good idea.
Worked for me so far.
On Tue, Nov 12, 2019 at 9:19 AM Joseph Bessetti <jbes...@hotmail.com> wrote:
I like the reply Marvin, but there's a problem: How is a person going to split in late spring when they can't reliably get bees to survive through winter?
The counting and the treating are supposed to keep the bees "healthy" and enable them to survive through winter. If that worked as advertised, then there would be lots of winter survivors to split in the spring and you'd all be swimming in extra splits every June. There are beekeepers here and there who seem to make the treatment treadmill work, but the numbers coming back from the BIP surveys don't seem to support the efficacy of the approach broadly. Maybe it's too technically challenging and time-demanding for the average beekeeper?
This club used to have a handful of very vocal beekeepers who manage a substantial number of hives and reported good survival rates each year. I have a sense that the last few years or so have been a bit more challenging? Anyone out there keeping more than thirty hives and consistently having 75% or better winter survival for the last 3 years or more? If so, what have you been doing, and what do you believe the keys to success are?
Rich, I believe that you have more than thirty hives? Since you recommended Randy Oliver's model, do you care to share your winter survival stats for the last 3 years and tell us what you have done to manage mites?
Joe
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50% the last two winters. Curiously, my coldest yard last winter did the best.
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50% the last two winters. Curiously, my coldest yard last winter did the best.
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Ya, windbreaks are underappreciated. I've got hives up high on a sunny location, but wind exposed. And then I have hives down in a dark bottom that's cold, but has better wind protection. Those seem to overwinter the best. I just need to bite the bullet, drive the T-posts and put up the snow fence.
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