Flux Density Values in sfu for 17:00 on 2014:04:28 Julian Day Number : 2456776.197 Carrington Rotation Number : 2149.792 Observed Flux Density : 120.3 Flux Density Adjusted for 1 A.U. : 121.9
73 Mike
Does this mean its going to be pretty much over by the 9th of may 2014? dang that was short lived! i wolnt even get my equipment in the mail before this happens :(
Bryan,
There are plenty of other satellites to listen to. There are also the NOAA weather satellites that you can receive the picture from http://www.rtlsdr.com/2013/07/how-to-receive-noaa-satellite-images/
Dave-KB1PVH
Sent from my Verizon Wireless Droid RAZR
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(Image and all this data is public domain)
When an object is near of decay the USPACECOM starts to publish more TLEs per day than a normal LEO satelite. A normal LEO satellite orbit is updated 1 time per day or 1 per 2 days. An object near reentry can have 4 TLEs per day or more. So when KickSat is about to decay they (hopely) will start giving more data, increasing the accuracy of decay predictions.
Methods and softwares used explained at: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/kicksat-gs/dragon/kicksat-gs/IKCfh2CrnIU/PzuOGL9wNrgJ
Jon.
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Just a fast update.
A new TLE is avaiable, and current decay prediction is: may 14 @ 17h 33' UTC +- 2 days. Looks that USPACECOM prediction was wrong, but I would prefer to wait to new TLEs to be sure.
As allways, predictions are made with SatEvo, by Alan Pickup.
Jon.
2 new TLEs are avaiable. Second one is not good, a drag term is missing, but it fits good with the decay and with mean motion. So I can say that USPACECOM yesterday's prediction was wrong.
This morning I spent some hours trying to improve the prediction. So now Im using different coeficients and other variable values. This fits better and residuals are lower now, so the accuracy should be better now.
My current decay prediction is: may 14 @ 12h 52' UTC +- 2 days. The decay looks definetively stabilized on may 14 :(.
Jon.
>> This is definitely a good idea as far as the physics goes. Unfortunately, we
>> don't have the ability to command anything at the moment.
>
> In early e-mail you mentioned that "there is still some hope that the
> batteries may recharge sufficiently to command the satellite." If they
> get to 7 volts before the 16 days elapse, you still can't release the
> Sprites, right? But you can still try this possible life-extension
> maneuver? Or did I miss something? Is the entire command uplink gated
> to that timer, or just the Sprite release?
The USPACECOM has not published new decay predictions yet.
A very fast analysis puts my reentry prediction may 14 @ 1h 49' UTC.
Later I will post more info and will refine the variables for more accaurate predictions.
As always, predictions are made using SatEvo by Alan Pickup.
Jon.
The USPACECOM has a new prediction and TLEs. Their prediction sets KickSat decay may 14 @ 7h 56' UTC.
My prediction sets KickSat decay may 14 @ 5h4' UTC +-20 hours.
Later better analysis and more data to radio amateurs, like the output TLEs and others.
As always, the predictions are made with SatEvo, by Alan Pickup.
Jon.
Feel free to share it.
There are no new TLEs avaiable, but thw USPACECOM has updated his prediction: may 14 @ 4h 42' UTC.
Will post new predictions when recent TLEs are avaiable.
Jon.
A new (maybe wrong) TLE is avaiable.
Please be carefull with this prediction: may 13 @ 23h 21'UTC +- 7 hours.
I need one orbit more to be sure. Later I will post a better analysis.
Jon.
The great analyser Joseph Remis is publishing his own predictions and propagated elements here:
https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/reentrywatch
I will update my prediction when new TLEs are avaiable.
Jon.
Another fast update.
Happy that the USPACECOM newest prediction comes closer to my last prediction:
The new USPACECOM decay prediction is: may 14 @ 2h 21'UTC.
My new prediction with the most recent 7 TLEs is: may 13 @ 23h 44' UTC +- 5 hours. About 2 hours before than prediction of the USPACECOM. Hoewer I did not make my final analysis, that will include data refine for very low altitudes. No Ground Track and graphics avaiable yet, Im not at home.
More updates in some hours.
Maybe I will make the coverage for final orbits posting here some data of USPACECOM to see if KickSat is still in orbit every half revolution.
Jon.
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Daniela,
I think so too. But if we dont try it, we havenot chance to see anything.
This new 4 japan HD camera, more or less permanetly on-line on the ISS has some really nice features and challenges.
I
spent time in the last days, try to see some reflexions, and other
lights. I have recorded screenshots about condense lines of aeroplains,
some lightening strikes, some short sunshine reflexions on small lakes.
We
are waiting to the predicted comet,s generated meteorite,s shower at 24
maj, maybe we have chance to see something on this camera.
I put here a really interesting screenshot:
the
"real visible" parts of it is the narrow line of the Earth at the
middle of the picture, and the details of the ISS itself. The other
elements are light reflexions only, the visible lines of the sunshines,
the small balls anf points, maybe can interpret, as spreading the light
on small drops (?). The most nice reflexion comes from a "half-mirror"
surface, and reflected the objective of the camera from opposite
direction...
So: we havenot too much chance to pick up our nice sat, but try to hunting, it has challenges.
t.janos
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Sorry for no update the decay. I need to sleep :)
Looks that KickSat is between us now. The reentry time at now is uncertain. There are no last orbits and no USPACECOM TIP messages. Later I will post my estimation of reentry. Maybe the USPACECOM will post the decay place, but it looks unlikeable right now.
My estimations were more or less right, and I can say that KickSat reentered between may 14 @ 1:00 and may 14 @ 2:30 UTC.
Thanks for reading my messages, later I will post my last analysis;
Jon.
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Thanks for the comments.
Would be an honour to help you with your cubesat. It was launched on the qualification travel of Vega rocket? If the answer is yes, we will have to have a lot of care with the predictions, satellites in polar orbits are very different. I think I have time to see some analysis and refining my tecniques till november. Of course you can contact with me via email when you want.
At now Im out of home, so I will make my final analysis at european night.
Jon.
By the way, pocketspacecraft project going to make sprites analogue (they call it "scouts"), which intended to survive reentry and fall down to earth not only without burning, but in working order.
They reference this one.
I'm not (yet?) read their paper in details (neither yours), but fast (and dirty) comparision shows their are very close to each other, lot of same references in same order, same "keywords", even same pictures (thought with different variable names). Well, same university and 2 of 3 same authors :)