Manufacturing 1 KW PV (material + process) consumes 5600 kWh (Knapp and Jester, 2000)Making 100 MW PV would require 560 million KWh or an 85.2 MW of coal power plant capacity operating at 75% capacity factor (85200 KW x 0.75 x 8760 hours = 559764000 kWh)
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more than 50% of the AT&C losses is technical loss and rest is theft
Sandeep Goel
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I am not against energy efficiency [...] Both the technologies have to go hand in hand and solve our energy problems.
It is not that we have not improved on energy efficiency. We have the BEE labeling program, Discoms are trying to reduce their losses, we have the PAT scheme in place, concept of green buildings is picking up,
Solar has a lot of potential in the decentralized markets, but to make it viable, it is important to use it on mass scale, accelerate its use quickly so that it is cost effective.
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Renewable energy is exactly 9 times more expensive than energy efficiency. [...] I am surprised some members still believe renewable energy has to be on par with energy efficiency. I think there has to be a consensus that investment in energy efficiency should be much much higher than renewable energy.
It is assumed that total electricity generation capacity will touch 1000 GW by 2030. This is higher than other projections and is based on the assumption that the present coal shortage issues will be resolved in 5-7 years and we will continue to see massive infusion of private capital in this sector under BAU. This will allow us to achieve GOI target of 400 GW by 2022. We will ramp it up to 1000 GW over the next 8 years, replicating china's rise in installed power capacity twenty years earlier in the 2000's.India's present total capacity is 200 GW which China had achieved by 1995. It took India 17 years to reach the milestone. China's present capacity (end 2011) stands at 1056 GW which India is likely to achieve by 2030-2031 or in 19 years under BAU.At 75% PLF on average (new fossil fuel capacity will have higher PLF but renewables will have lower so taking 75% as aggregate figure), 1000 GW will generate 6570 Billion Units. Solar Power of 100 GW capacity at 17% PLF will generate 149 Billion Units or 2.26% of total generation.
What if the assumptions go wrong? Okay let's say the assumptions are proved to be way off by 2030. Let's say India's total capacity falls short of 1000 GW or solar operates at higher PLF or perhaps solar capacity will double to 200 GW instead of 100. In each such event, solar's contribution to total generation will still remain below 5%.
3. BEE Labeling standards were determined by industry playersThis assumption is based on reading of studies from different sources. I don't have a ready source to the claim but it is generally well recognised that EE is far cheaper than renewables. A brief search led to this study by Jonathan Cullen and Julian Allwood of Cambridge University which argued that carbon emissions are far more responsive to changes in how we use energy than in how we generate it. They say that it will be cheaper, easier and quicker to make efficiency savings than to switch to renewables. Yusuf Turab also authenticated this claim by citing a study in US which showed efficiency delivered 9X returns compared to solar. I don't know how old that study is but even considering the price drop, the gains will still be within the claimed 5x-10x range.
4. T&D loss to be over 20 times solar power generation by 2022This is based on an analysis by Prof. Ajay Chandak, a veteran Green-India member and renewable energy consultant, who looked at this issue in quite detail in the past. Actual source included minutes of meeting and other documents posted on BEE site. This was discussed on Green-India.
The graphs are included from a paper I wrote for, and presentation made at, International Conclave on Climate Change organised by ESCI, Hyderabad in October 2011. I'm assuming no significant drop in T&D loss under business as usual scenario by the year 2022 (taken as 25%).Calculation (from mid 2011) is as below.
Total expected installed capacity by Mar 2012: 192.91 GWTarget 12th five year plan (2012-17): 100 GWTarget 13th five year plan (2017-22): 100 GWTotal expected installed capacity by 2022: 392.91 GWTotal energy generation by 2022 @ 75% PLF: 392.91 x 8760 x 0.75 = 2581.42 Billion Units (BU)T&D loss by 2022 @ 25% = 2582 x 0.25 = 645.36 BU
Solar energy generation by 2022 [20 GW @17% PLF] = 20 x 8760 x 0.17 = 29784 GWH = 29.78 BU
Electricity generation in India in 2011-12 (CEA)
855 BU target from hydro, thermal, nuclear & imports53 BU from Renewables (estimated @ 30% PLF from 20.16 GW )= 908 BU
Units delivered in 2011-12 (generation minus T&D): 908 - (908 x 0.29) = 644.68 BU
T&D loss by 2022 (as calculated in #4): 645.36 BU6. Perform Achieve & Trade target lower than BAU
7. ECBC weakPAT target of 4% reduction in industrial energy consumption over a 4-year period is from a BEE presentations & papers on NMEE found on its site. The relevant table is attached as an image to this email.The contention that the country's energy intensity will reduce by ~ 2% annually is from emission modelling studies published by MoEF available here.
8. Embodied energy in BoS componentsThe contention that ECBC is not mandatory and that BEE has no control over how states implement the code is public knowledge. That it sets low targets refers to its ambition of achieving ~ 30% energy reduction from conventional buildings, and not to particular norms for insulation etc.Best performance green buildings in India have demonstrated up to 75% reduction over conventional buildings. My view is that any such regulation should accept at no less than 50% reduction in new buildings and at least 25% reduction in retrofits in existing buildings. I will discuss this more in a separate post.
Three ways in which energy is embodied in components that go with solar modules. One is energy embodied in the base material itself (copper, aluminum, lead, plastic etc). This ranges from 2kg to 8 kg CO2 / kg material depending upon the material and %age recycled. Then there is energy consumed in manufacturing the component (inverter, battery etc). Finally, energy consumed in transportation.
"In most situations, the higher costs of Super Efficient Appliances are much less than the cost of expanding coal based generation plants and far lower than some other green energy sources like solar."
"It can be argued that unless EE is aggressively pursued, it would simply be impossible to meet the energy demand of the growing economy. Hence, EE should be seen as indispensable as power plants in avoiding shortages, facilitating growth and maintaining competitiveness. EE deserves the same importance as that of addition of electricity generation capacity."