Arctic ice loss decades ahead than predicted

[Manu Sharma]

Dear members,

According to a new study Arctic ice sheet is melting at a rate 30 years in advance than predicted by computer models used in IPCC reports. This may mean that the effects of climate change such as rising sea levels could come decades in advance than anyone predicted.

(Illustration by Steve Deyo, UCAR.)

This figure illustrates the extent to which Arctic sea ice is melting faster than projected by computer models. The dotted dark blue line represents the average rate of melting indicated by computer models, with the blue area around it indicating the spread among the different models (shown as plus/minus one standard deviation). The red line shows the actual rate of Arctic ice loss based on observations. The observations have been particularly accurate since 1979 because of new satellite technology. Read complete article

Thanks,
Manu

[Manu Sharma]

More news organisations have picked up on this study.

The New York Times reports:

Climate scientists may have significantly underestimated the power of global warming from human-generated heat-trapping gases to shrink the cap of sea ice floating on the Arctic Ocean, according to a new study of polar trends.

"There are huge changes going on," said Julienne Stroeve, a lead author of the new study and a researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. "Just with warm waters entering the Arctic, combined with warming air temperatures, this is wreaking havoc on the sea ice, really." 

I have previously expressed on this list that IPCC's predictions are actually quite conservatives because of the nature of their consensus building approach and an early cut-off period for scientific evidence considered by them. The BBC writes about the same issue in their coverage of the latest findings:

This is the third time in the last few months that studies have suggested the IPCC's latest major global climate analysis, the Fourth Assessment Report, is too conservative.

In December, a German team published research suggesting that sea levels could rise by 50-140cm over the coming century. The IPCC, in February, gave a range of 28-43cm.

Then, also in February, came an analysis showing that temperature and sea level rises had been rising at or above the top end of IPCC projections since the panel's previous major assessment in 2001.

This is the opposite view from that put forward by many "climate sceptics", who view the whole field of computer modelling as deeply flawed, and the IPCC as an alarmist organisation.

Because of the way it works, the IPCC is bound to be conservative, as it assesses in considerable depth research already in the public domain. This process takes time, and means the panel's conclusions will always lag behind the latest publications.

I hope the policy makers are listening. This requires immediate action on part of the government.

Thanks,
Manu

[Chandak]

I recommend all members to see the Oscar winning documentary by Al Gore, "Inconvinient Truth". Amazing documentary on Global warming.

 

Prof. Ajay Chandak.

----- Original Message -----

From: Manu Sharma

To: green...@googlegroups.com

Sent: Tuesday, May 01, 2007 8:05 PM

Subject: [Green-India] Re: Arctic ice loss decades ahead than predicted

More news organisations have picked up on this study.

The New York Times reports:

Climate scientists may have significantly underestimated the power of global warming from human-generated heat-trapping gases to shrink the cap of sea ice floating on the Arctic Ocean, according to a new study of polar trends.

"There are huge changes going on," said Julienne Stroeve, a lead author of the new study and a researcher at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. "Just with warm waters entering the Arctic, combined with warming air temperatures, this is wreaking havoc on the sea ice, really." 

I have previously expressed on this list that IPCC's predictions are actually quite conservatives because of the nature of their consensus building approach and an early cut-off period for scientific evidence considered by them. The BBC writes about the same issue in their coverage of the latest findings:

This is the third time in the last few months that studies have suggested the IPCC's latest major global climate analysis, the Fourth Assessment Report, is too conservative.

In December, a German team published research suggesting that sea levels could rise by 50-140cm over the coming century. The IPCC, in February, gave a range of 28-43cm.

Then, also in February, came an analysis showing that temperature and sea level rises had been rising at or above the top end of IPCC projections since the panel's previous major assessment in 2001.

This is the opposite view from that put forward by many "climate sceptics", who view the whole field of computer modelling as deeply flawed, and the IPCC as an alarmist organisation.

Because of the way it works, the IPCC is bound to be conservative, as it assesses in considerable depth research already in the public domain. This process takes time, and means the panel's conclusions will always lag behind the latest publications.

I hope the policy makers are listening. This requires immediate action on part of the government.

Thanks,
Manu

On 5/1/07, Manu Sharma <orang...@gmail.com> wrote: