Food Supply/Agricultural productions shocks

[Isadora Ferreira]

Hi all, 

Do any of you know about any literature review about climate change and food supply shocks? From my limited knowledge, I’m less interested in the future changes to yields where studies draw neat linear plots that seem to assume steady temperature rise/rainfall deficit. I’d be more interested in understanding the potential for simultaneous supply shocks from extreme events, which are probably more erratic/less linear and less predictable.

Thanks in advance.

[jpgoo...@gmail.com]

1. The frequency and severity of extreme events as consequences of climate change are considered in Chapter 5 of this major report from the Government Office of Science

’The Future of Food and Farming; Challenges and Choices for global sustainability’ (2011).

It will at least put climate change in context of the other factors which may cause or mitigate volatility.

 

2. Try putting the following four, 6-digit, Project Codes separately into the ‘Keyword(s)’  box here:
   http://sciencesearch.defra.gov.uk/Default.aspx?Location=None&Module=FilterSearchNewLook
   and clicking ‘Search’.
   FO0418, FO0416, FO0120, CA0505.

 

Though whether any of the above deal with simultaneous shocks – presumably affecting supply of the same commodity – I’d doubt.

 

It may be re-assuring to appreciate how shocks can be/are mitigated and to appreciate how security lies in not putting all your eggs in one geographical basket – protectionism notwithstanding.

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[Simon Ward]

These are excellent sources but they do need to be understood. For example, the rate of yield improvement for grain is correctly stated but this does not recognise crop substitution. Maize is replacing barley in many countries and this effectively doubles calorie production (albeit at a higher cost)  enabling the rate of food production increase to be maintained. We also have a number of important buffers in the supply chain 1) use of grain in biofuel (well over 100M tonnes) which would be released without subsidy 2) Use in animal rations where a rise in grain price is reflected in a significantly higher rise in the cost of meat production (particularly beef). It is also worth noting that when production is above and below trend consumption tends to mirror around 60-80% of the change. There are also subtler changes where relative areas and fertilise use change when prices are high. Lower prices have resulted in land coming out of production. 

There are also some exciting technologies that increase drought tolerance and reduce other risks. There are a myriad of small adjustments that would occur if there was a serious shortage such as: a reduction in organic farming reduction in growing barley for malt, or even use of grains for animal feed rather than energy production.

There is a substitution of energy for food which is another important variable.

Year end food stocks are expected to be high 2020 and this also flattens the price volatility.

If you want to crunch numbers the USDA PSD/WASDE or, slightly less satisfactorily, the FAO databases are a good start and show the historic volatility of crop production and yield globally and in specific areas. The databases also shows area occupied by each crop. If making a political point the Australian yield volatility is worth a look at - the same volatility might apply elsewhere in future.

I see local starvation/hot spots as being a greater threat where local disease (crops, stock or people) wipes out a local supply.

S

 

  

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Simon Ward

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[jpgoo...@gmail.com]

Oh! Did I misinterpret the question when I read it as meaning the impact and frequency of (acute) extreme events on the continuity of food supply e.g. droughts, crop failure, floods, heat waves.

I had rather thought the stuff on chronic change resulting from climate change – yield improvements, crop substitution, was outside the scope?

 

I’d hate this to become argumentative though as these streams so often seem – I tend to avoid them as a consequence.

 

I think you’ll have to tease out what you need from some references that cover both, Isadora.

Good Luck!   

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[Simon Ward]

Sorry - I have muddied the water - I apologise. I am adding I hope to the mitigation factors

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[Luke Spajic]

Hi Isadora,

I think what you're interested in is "concurrent extreme weather events" or "simultaneous global breadbasket failure". 

Here's a paper in Nature which considered these risks: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0600-z

From their abstract, I get the impression such a literature review might not exist: "While the possibility of climatic extremes hitting more than one breadbasket has been postulated3,4, little is known about the actual risk" 

I know the organisation ALLFED (Alliance to Feed the Earth in the Event of Disasters) also does work looking at these sorts of scenarios: https://allfed.info/

Perhaps you could contact the authors of that paper or ALLFED?

Kind regards,
Luke Spajic. 

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[Luke Spajic]

Apologies for the double email, I just came across another relevant article:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0637-z

[Isadora Ferreira]

Hi all, good morning, 

Thank you so much for all the resources. Yes to both Luke and Jp. I am more interested in shocks than chronic changes from climate change and discuss more impacts rather than improvements/mitigation factors. But all your inputs are quite helpful, especially the concurrent extreme weather events" or "simultaneous global breadbasket failure", so thanks Luke. 

If you come across anything, please let me know.

Isadora 

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[Bill Grayson]

Just to remind ourselves that this won’t necessarily affect production in other parts of the world. Met Office predictions indicate that the UK is likely to experience much more frequent summer droughts which are likely to coincide with similar events overseas. https://theconversation.com/climate-change-40-c-summer-temperatures-could-be-common-in-uk-by-2100-141479?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20July%201%202020%20-%201665816047&utm_content=Latest%20from%20The%20Conversation%20for%20July%201%202020%20-%201665816047+CID_6d416a760062dda4846c6c75e11d7386&utm_source=campaign_monitor_uk&utm_term=Climate%20change%2040C%20summer%20temperatures%20could%20be%20common%20in%20UK%20by%202100

 

best wishes

Bill

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[Caroline Paul K]

Dear All,

Hope you are well and staying safe!

I am writing to invite you to participate in World Sustainable Teach-In Day, which marks the beginning of a decade-long global movement that aims to raise and spread awareness of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UD SDGs), a universal call to action to end poverty, protect the planet and ensure that all people enjoy peace and prosperity by 2030. It is a major online event that aims to accelerate progress towards achieving the UN SDGs at the grassroots level by focusing on sustainable education. We seek to infuse sustainability thinking into current education systems and inspire current and future students by reorienting educational practices and also to mobilize and equip teachers with solid, hands-on knowledge about the SDGs so that they can integrate this into their curriculum/teaching.

As an expert in the field of sustainability/climate change, I would be very happy if you can contribute a presentation  in any of the following topics:

Category A: Theory and practice of sustainable development
Category B: Environmental, social, political and economic aspects of sustainable development
Category C: Education, communication and training on sustainable development.
Category D: In-Campus and regional initiatives involving different groups and stakeholders whose
approach/methods may be replicable or likely to be of interest to a wide audience.

Please find attached a document with more details about the event and how to participate. If you need any further details, please let me know and I am happy to help,

Warm regards,
Caroline 

Communications Manager - WSD-TID 2020 

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[Corey Watts]

Hello Isadora,

A couple of things that I hope prove useful:

Not a review as such and not about food only or even mainly, but I found this document on interdependencies a useful conceptual tool. There are compounding events—and then there are cascading consequences. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/report_c40_interdependencies_.pdf

Again, not food-focused but on the off-chance it’s useful nonetheless https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0156-3

Best wishes,

Corey

—————————————
Corey Watts

+61 (0)428 000 037

Victoria, Australia (GMT +10)

Principal Consultant

BrightWater
Strategy, Policy & Advocacy for Science, the Land & Sustainable Development
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ABN: 11410476473

Policy Director, Farmers for Climate Action, 

https://farmersforclimateaction.org.au/

Honorary Fellow, Agriculture & Food, The University of Melbourne, 

https://fvas.unimelb.edu.au/

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[Peter Baker]

Maybe one or more of these might be of use?

Best regards,

P

doi:10.1038/nature16467

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02071-5

doi:10.2134/agronj2010.0303

DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaw1976

doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b

doi: 10.1029/2018EF000995 

doi:10.1038/s41893-018-0210-1

doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf07f

doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2015.08.001

https://www.pnas.org/content/115/26/6644

http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000687

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0192928

doi.org/10.1016/j.fcr.2016.09.024

http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/short/1222465110

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[Isadora Ferreira]

this is amazing, thank you all!

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[jpgoo...@gmail.com]

Isadora,

Subscription to this regular email may help with an appreciation of the current global grain markets, variations in supply, the (climatic) causes and mitigations.

Phil

 

From: fcr...@googlegroups.com <fcr...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Isadora Ferreira
Sent: 08 July 2020 08:26
To: FCR...@googlegroups.com
Subject: Re: [FCRN-L] Food Supply/Agricultural productions shocks

 

this is amazing, thank you all!

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