Climate Change Hype Doesn't Help
The bigger issue than global warming is that more people are choosing to
live in coastal areas.
Ryan Maue
As soon as Hurricanes Harvey and Irma made landfall in the U.S., scientists,
politicians and journalists began to discuss the role of climate change in
natural disasters. Although a clear scientific consensus has emerged over
the past decade that climate change influences hurricanes in the long run,
its effect upon any individual storm is unclear. Anyone trying to score
political points after a natural disaster should take a deep breath and
review the science first.
As a meteorologist with access to the best weather-forecast model data
available, I watched each hurricane's landfall with particular interest.
Harvey and Irma broke the record 12-year major hurricane landfall drought on
the U.S. coastline. Since Wilma in October 2005, 31 major hurricanes had
swirled in the North Atlantic but all failed to reach the U.S. with a
Category 3 or higher intensity.
Even as we worked to divine exactly where the hurricanes would land, a media
narrative began to form linking the devastating storms to climate change.
Some found it ironic that states represented by "climate deniers" were being
pummeled by hurricanes. Alarmists reveled in the irony that Houston, home to
petrochemical plants, was flooded by Harvey, while others gleefully reported
that President Trump's Mar-a-Lago might be inundated by Irma.
How to put these two hurricanes into proper context? An informative website
from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, part of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration, synthesizes reams of research literature on
the links between hurricanes and global warming. Over the next century,
climate models generally indicate fewer but stronger storms-between 2% and
11% greater average storm intensity-with substantially increased rain rates.
Against the background of slow sea-level rise, explosive coastal population
growth will overwhelmingly exacerbate any hurricane's damages. In the
aggregate, the global-warming signal may just now be emerging out of our
noisy observational records, and we may not know certainly for several
decades. These conclusions are hardly controversial in the climate-science
community.
My own research, cited in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
report, found that during the past half-century tropical storms and
hurricanes have not shown an upward trend in frequency or accumulated
energy. Instead they remain naturally variable from year-to-year. The global
prevalence of the most intense storms (Category 4 and 5) has not shown a
significant upward trend either. Historical observations of extreme cyclones
in the 1980s, especially in the Southern Hemisphere, are in sore need of
reanalysis.
By focusing on whether climate change caused a hurricane, journalists fail
to appreciate the complexity of extreme weather events. While most details
are still hazy with the best climate modeling tools, the bigger issue than
global warming is that more people are choosing to live in coastal areas,
where hurricanes certainly will be most destructive.
The nascent field of "attribution science" attempts to explain how climate
change may affect characteristics of a given hurricane using models in "what
if" mode. Such research requires a faithful reproduction of events and
predictions of the future constrained by subjective choices within computer
models. This research also takes time-which means other scientists must
examine the evidence with patience and judiciousness not usually seen on
Twitter or cable news.
Still, the scientific community already knows plenty about hurricanes and
climate change-knowledge it has accumulated over two decades through
peer-reviewed research, academic conferences and voluminous national and
international assessments. Yet climate scientists all too often speculate
during interviews rather than refer to IPCC reports or their cousins from
the U.S. National Climate Assessment. Some climate scientists have peddled
tenuous theories with no contemporaneous research evidence. Advocacy groups
package these talking points for easy consumption by journalists, who
eagerly repeat them.
The historical record books contain dozens of devastating hurricane
landfalls over the past century, any of which, if repeated, would be
catastrophic regardless of additional climate-change effects. To prepare for
the next hurricane, the U.S. needs the best weather forecasts, evacuation
plans and leadership. These plans should be built on sound science, not
speculation, overselling or exaggeration. Hurricane science in this
political climate already has enough spin.
Mr. Maue, a research meteorologist, is an adjunct scholar at the Cato
Institute.
"Stormin' Norman" <nor...@schwarzkopf.invalid> wrote in message
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