Will Manafort Sing?
NY Times Op Ed
By Nicholas Kristof
OCT. 30, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/y9v87hdq
Excerpts:
Manafort may now be facing the prospect of years in prison, and the indictment seems meticulously rooted in facts and evidence that Robert Mueller accumulated; if I were Manafort, I’d be very worried. Presumably that was the intention, and one purpose of the indictment is to gain leverage to persuade Manafort to testify against others in exchange for leniency.
If Manafort pursues his self-interest, my bet is that he’ll sing. That then can become a cascade: He testifies against others, who in turn are pressured to testify against still others. And all this makes it more difficult to protect the man at the center if indeed he has violated the law.
Much the same goes for Manafort’s aide, Rick Gates, who was also indicted, and for George Papadopoulos, a foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign, who pled guilty to lying to the F.B.I. about a Russian contact. The Papadopoulos revelation is particularly interesting because it goes precisely to the issue of collusion, and it’s not just an allegation — it’s a guilty plea.
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Another point worth pondering is how it is that President Trump chose as his campaign chair someone like Manafort whose reputation in the political world was less about his political brilliance than about his ties to Russia and Ukraine (including some of the most corrupt people there) and his general shadiness. It’s said that Jared Kushner was among those advocating to hire Manafort, so the obvious question is: Why?
Maybe there simply wasn’t adequate vetting, even though news organizations quickly found problems that led to Manafort’s firing. But the inclination to hire someone so close to Moscow does raise questions about the Trump inner circle’s predilection to hire someone linked to Russia and Ukraine.
We’re still not sure whether there was collusion between President Trump and Russia, but we certainly do know that Russia interfered with the U.S. election and may even have affected the outcome, although that is impossible to know for sure. Nothing could be more serious, or more deserving of careful investigation.
President Trump tweeted this morning that there was “no collusion” and again urged greater focus on the supposed crimes of Hillary Clinton. By that he presumably means the uranium deal, which has conservatives in a frenzy—but it is simply absurd to think that there is some parallel.
Look, it was The Times that in 2015 helped uncover and publicize the uranium arrangement, but it has been flagrantly taken out of context by Fox News and its ilk. For starters, there seems to be a suspicion on the right that American uranium is going to Russia, while in fact there’s no export license — so the uranium stays in America. More important, this was a non-controversial deal that an interagency committee approved, apparently unanimously, at a level far below Hillary Clinton as secretary of state. Every bit of evidence says that Clinton never even weighed in on it. So the notion that this is somehow a serious scandal parallel to Moscow’s work to overturn an American presidential election is just comical.
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Any firing of Mueller would lead many fair-minded people to assume that Trump is hiding criminal behavior, perhaps treason. There would be a push for impeachment, a boost to Congressional investigations, and the presidency would be hobbled — along with the United States itself — for years to come. Trump set in motion today’s actions when he fired James Comey, and I hope he understands that firing Mueller would probably also set in motion the complete unraveling of his presidency.
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NY Times Op Ed
By NORMAN EISEN, NOAH BOOKBINDER and BARRY BERKE
OCT. 30, 2017
http://tinyurl.com/y7ewz8xx
Excerpts:
Expect to hear this line repeatedly from the president and his defenders: The indictments, on charges of money laundering and conspiracy, are a vindication of President Trump because he was not charged and because of the absence of allegations about campaign collusion with Russia. But they’re wrong — the president should be very worried.
For one thing, it is now clear that President Trump closely relied upon Mr. Manafort and Mr. Gates while they were engaged in alleged criminal activity. That is a damning indictment of the president’s judgment. Their prosecution will hang over him and his administration for the foreseeable future, since these proceedings will continue for many months, and perhaps years. And these are unlikely to be the last of the charges pursued by Robert Mueller, the special counsel, who is also reported to be looking at other actors, including the president himself.
The idea that Mr. Manafort’s indictment vindicates Mr. Trump also ignores how complex criminal investigations typically proceed, and the attendant peril Mr. Trump now faces. In our half century of collective experience prosecuting and defending criminal cases, we have watched repeatedly as prosecutors charged lower-level individuals with readily provable offenses that are distinct from the core conduct and targets that are the primary focus of the prosecutor’s investigation.
It’s also significant that Mr. Mueller threw the book at Mr. Manafort and Mr. Gates. Because the federal sentencing guidelines recommend a significant prison sentence for money-laundering offenses and are largely driven by the dollar amounts involved in the crime, this indictment, which involves millions of dollars, puts tremendous pressure on them to make a cooperation deal with the special counsel’s office to try to reduce the lengthy prison sentences each could face.
The power of this “squeeze play” approach is demonstrated by the other filing released today, reflecting a guilty plea by George Papadopoulos, a former Trump foreign policy adviser who admits to communications with foreign individuals during the campaign, including at least one about the Russians’ possessing “dirt” concerning Hillary Clinton “in the form of ‘thousands of emails.’ ” Mr. Papadopoulos lied about these engagements when questioned, and was caught doing so. When confronted with the prospect of jail time, he decided to cooperate. His statements constitute yet another troubling quantum of evidence that the Trump campaign may have known about and encouraged the Russian intrusion on our elections — so-called collusion.
The Papadopoulos plea was finalized this month, and it’s no coincidence that Mr. Mueller held off announcing it until today. It’s a clear signal to Mr. Manafort and Mr. Gates about how they should proceed — and how much the special counsel wants them to. Mr. Manafort was privy to the inner workings of the Trump campaign, and he attended the now-famous June 2016 meeting between Donald Trump Jr. and Jared Kushner and apparent Russian emissaries. Should Mr. Manafort cooperate, he would be an important witness as to what those in attendance said about the event before, during and after — and whether Mr. Trump himself was briefed on it.
Mr. Gates, though less well known, was also intertwined with Mr. Trump, including during the administration itself. If Mr. Mueller can secure his cooperation through a plea or immunity, he too can offer a wealth of information, including what he did, who he met with and what he discussed in his White House visits. To take another example, Mr. Gates’ colleagues in a pro-Trump outside group he worked with in the first months of the administration included Brad Parscale, the Trump campaign’s digital director. Mr. Mueller would surely be interested in knowing whether Mr. Parscale ever offered any indication that he was aware of or cooperated with Russian cyber-intrusions during the campaign.
We believe the greatest risk to Mr. Trump remains the possibility that he obstructed justice by firing the former F.B.I. director James Comey. The fact that Mr. Mueller has found enough evidence to bring credible charges in just five months suggests that he is moving forward with determination and skill. For anyone in the path of his investigation who has committed an offense, that cannot be welcome news.
Norman Eisen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, is the chairman of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Noah Bookbinder is the executive director of CREW and a former federal corruption prosecutor. Barry Berke is a co-chairman of the litigation department at Kramer Levin Naftalis & Frankel, where he is a partner specializing in white-collar criminal defense.
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Yeah, but what do YOU think about all this, Andy?
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Love is a weird thing. Yesterday I had never heard of
George Papadopoulos, and yet today I adore him more
than any other person on earth.