Conspiracists Overlook (Or Simply Choose To Ignore) An Immensely-Important Statistic Relating To The JFK Assassination Witnesses
David VP
testimony is very often the least-dependable type of evidence to rely
on with respect to relating it to a particular crime that has been
committed. And that rule of thumb must also apply to the 1963 John F.
Kennedy assassination case as well.
With respect to the earwitnesses who heard the gunfire resound through
Dealey Plaza in Dallas, Texas, on November 22, 1963 (the day when JFK
was murdered by a single rifleman, Lee Harvey Oswald), there can be no
question that there were varied accounts of exactly where in that
park-like Plaza the gunshots had come from.
Many witnesses thought the shots had come from the now-famous "Grassy
Knoll" area in front of the President's limousine; while even a larger
percentage of witnesses heard shots from the direction of the Texas
School Book Depository Building to the rear of the car (a building from
where Mr. Oswald was physically seen firing a rifle at the President,
and a building wherein Oswald's own rifle was discovered 52 minutes
after President Kennedy's assassination).
So, which of the earwitnesses are right and who among them is wrong?
Or, are ALL of these witnesses to be considered "correct" in a sense,
in that shots were fired from both the front and the rear of Kennedy's
vehicle?
The answer to that last question is an undeniable (and provable) -- No.
The reason, in my view, that both "camps" of earwitnesses ("front" vs.
"rear") cannot each be accurate when it comes to what they heard is due
to an often-ignored, overlooked, or buried statistic concerning these
same earwitnesses -- i.e., the number of them who heard shots coming
from MORE THAN ONE DIRECTION. ......
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/images/shots4.jpg
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/earwitnesses.htm
The above chart and associated link provide information about the
Dealey Plaza witnesses who had an opinion as to where they thought the
gunshots had come from on 11/22/63.
The figure that is most-often overlooked or ignored by conspiracy
promoters is the very telling "Two Directions" slice of the earwitness
pie. That hunk of the pie is skimpy to be sure -- a mere 4.8% of all
earwitnesses.
So, that indicates that more than 95 out of every 100 witnesses who
offered up an opinion on the matter gave testimony to the effect that
they heard gunshots coming from just a SINGLE, solitary direction in
the Plaza that Friday in 1963.
That's an astoundingly-high percentile of "One Direction Only"
witnesses IF there had actually been, as most CTers believe was the
case, several assassins firing weapons from various and scattered
locations throughout Dealey Plaza that afternoon.
Now, again (for the sake of total fairness here), I should stress once
more the inherent UNreliability in many cases when it comes to witness
testimony. However, when you take more than 100 total earwitnesses (104
to be precise, based on the above-referenced links/data) located within
a (very small) area of the shooting event in Dallas, and you come away
with an overwhelming figure like "95%+" in favor of gunshots coming
from just a single direction, such a large majority tends to merit more
serious consideration and reliability.
Two witnesses who never varied in their "What Direction?" testimony
were two of the six people who were actually riding in the same car as
assassination victim JFK -- John and Nellie Connally. They had
absolutely no doubt whatsoever that all of the gunshots they heard had
come from "over their right shoulder" (from the direction of the Book
Depository Building). Governor Connally, who was severely wounded and
nearly killed by one of Oswald's bullets in the attack, was
particularly adamant in his belief re. the direction of the shots.
Listen.....
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/connally.ram
In my view, the best way to arrive at the probable truth re. the JFK
murder is to TOTAL UP the physical and circumstantial evidence
(including all witness accounts) and gauge what is most likely to be
true.
And once the evidence is gathered together in one place ..... Is it
MORE likely for several shots to have totally missed the car and all
potential victims -- AND for virtually everybody in the surrounding
vicinity to have mistakenly identified just a SINGLE location as the
source of the gunfire when there had actually been two or more sources
-- AND for the vast majority of these same witnesses to have all been
in error when they said to have heard only "three shots" fired; with
less than 9% of all witnesses actually hearing a number of gunshots (4
or more) that CTers need to have fired in order to have a prayer at
debunking the One-Assassin conclusion reached by the Warren Commission
and subsequent investigations? .....
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/images/shots3.jpg
-- Or: --
Is it MORE likely that only a single killer from behind JFK's car was
firing a gun in Dealey Plaza that day .... with one of his shots
missing the car completely, while two bullets hit victims inside the
vehicle?
The vast bulk of both the physical and the circumstantial evidence
revolving around the events of 11/22/63 leads in only one (irrevocable)
direction....and it's not toward "conspiracy". It's toward a single
killer on the 6th Floor of the Book Depository....a killer by the name
of Lee Harvey Oswald with rifle #C2766 in his hands.
Given the totality of the ballistics, witness, and autopsy evidence, no
conclusion other than a "Lone-Assassin" one is even possible. Evidence
such as:
1.) Oswald's rifle being found in the TSBD (on the "Death Floor").
2.) Oswald being physically seen aiming and firing a rifle from the
Depository.
3.) Three bullet shells from Oswald's rifle being found in the TSBD.
4.) Two bullet fragments from Oswald's rifle being found in JFK's
limousine.
5.) A huge majority of witnesses hearing exactly "three" shots fired.
6.) The official autopsy report verifying the fact that no frontal
shots hit JFK's body.
7.) The lack of ANY "non-Oswald" bullets being found anywhere within a
country mile of the assassination scene or Parkland Hospital.
8.) And the previously-discussed very important statistic of LESS THAN
5% OF ALL WITNESSES HEARING SHOTS FROM MORE THAN JUST A SINGLE LOCATION
(with this figure being only slightly higher via any pro-CT chart/graph
of this same nature, such as the one purported by conspiracy author
Josiah Thompson, who posits a "Two Directions" witness figure of only
6.3%, which is still an amazingly-tiny % if gunmen had really been
blasting away from two or more distinctly-opposite locations in Dealey
Plaza).*
* = And the "silenced weapons" argument is a silly one for
conspiracists to use to try and combat that low percentage of
"multi-location" witnesses (unless those same CTers wish to jettison
completely their long-held belief that some witnesses really DID hear
some gunshots from the Knoll area) -- because what kind of brainless
plotters would be "silencing" only SOME of the frontal gunshots, but
not others? That's just dumb.
What that high figure of "All The Shots Came From The Same Place"
witnesses is telling me is -- Dealey Plaza played some tricks with the
sounds of Oswald's three Depository shots, making it difficult for some
people to isolate the true source of the gunfire.
Yes, the "bowl" of Dealey Plaza played tricks on some witness' ears --
BUT: it would seem as if the Plaza didn't play "Multi-Directional"
tricks with respect to the SINGLE location of the gunshots heard by
practically every witness (whether it be a "front" or a "rear" witness
account). To say that it did is to believe the unlikely scenario that
would have had virtually everyone in the whole of Dealey Plaza, no
matter where they happened to be positioned within the Plaza, being the
victim of the very same "Shots Only SEEMED To Come From One Place But
Actually Came From Two Or Three" sound trick that day in 1963.
This is tremendously important when evaluating ALL of the individual
witness testimony. Why? Because, via such nearly-100% "One Location"
earwitness accounts throughout Dealey Plaza, it is possible then (when
all the post-assassination physical evidence is taken into account as
well; i.e., the back wounds on the victims, proving that at least SOME
shots came from behind the car) to come to the following obvious
conclusion with respect to those "All Shots Came From The Knoll"
earwitnesses -- They HAVE to be wrong.
The fact that the "frontal shot" witnesses had to have been dead-wrong
when such witnesses claimed to hear shots from ONLY the "front" is all
too obvious, and I'm always baffled by CTers who give the "directional"
testimony of such witnesses so much weight and credence, as if it was
"proof of conspiracy". It certainly proves no such thing. In fact, it
actually goes a further distance to proving JUST THE OPPOSITE. ....
Because if those witnesses REALLY were correct about hearing only shots
from ONE location (the Grassy Knoll or any other perceived locality),
it HAS to mean (given the physical evidence of KNOWN bullet holes in
the victims' backs) that there were NO SHOTS at all from the front, and
these witnesses merely were in error re. the source of ALL of the
gunfire.
I would certainly not be happy (at all) if I were Gerry Spence, or some
other lawyer who was attempting to defend Lee Oswald against the charge
of killing the President by himself from his Sniper's Perch in the
TSBD, and was confronted with a pie chart that looked like this (once
again linked below). I think I'd take my Stetson hat and head for the
door (at least with respect to this particular portion of the case
about what the witnesses heard or didn't hear). .....
http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/images/shots4.jpg
..... And if that chart were to be revised to include a separate
category for "3 Or More Directions", then we'd unquestionably see a 0%
figure placed inside such a "3 Directions" pie slice. A thin slice
indeed, to the point of total non-existence even.**
** = But, according to what many a-CTer actually believes, such a
"Three Directions" option SHOULD most definitely be included in such a
witness poll, due to the claim of many theorists that there were at
least THREE different shooters firing away at JFK on November the 22nd.
Names such as Oliver Stone, Jim Garrison, and Robert Groden, among many
other so-called assassination "experts", would fit into the "At Least 3
Gunmen" category. And yet not a single witness that I am aware of
claimed to hear shots from that number of distinct locations. THAT
fact, all by itself, tells us quite a bit about whether or not Mr.
Stone's "6-Shot, 3-Shooter, Triangulation Of Crossfire" theory (put
forth in his 1991 motion picture) has much of a chance of being a
correct and accurate assassination scenario.
When sorting through all of the above, which of these things is more
likely to be true regarding the murder of John F. Kennedy? ----
A vast multi-shooter, 4-plus-shots-fired conspiracy?
-- Or: --
A solo nutcase in the Book Depository getting lucky and killing the
President using his own rifle?
David Von Pein
March 2006
j.raymon...@gmail.com
and "earwitness"
testimony is very often the least-dependable type of evidence to rely
on with respect to relating it to a particular crime that has been
committed. And that rule of thumb must also apply to the 1963 John F.
Kennedy assassination case as well."
Serious researchers will also note that Mr. Von Pein is singing an
entirely different tune over on the Dale Myers thread.