> For instance, what if
>
> > Oswald was standing on the steps of the building alongside numerous
> > other TSBD employees? He would have probably been photographed there
> > (as in the Altgens photo) or several employees would have said, "Lee
> > was standing right next to me when the shots rang out."
>
> That remains a very valid question. If the conspirators intended to
> finger him as the lone patsy, yet hard evidence was discovered to
> exist that proves he was elsewhere, this would have been anticipated.
> In that case, the actual shooters would not be known to him (Oswald),
> so the conspirators could simply then lean back and think, "Okay, this
> Oswald scenario didn't work out, but good luck in trying to find the
> real killers." With the orchestration that seems to have been in place
> for the Mexico City charade, as well as Oswald's overt activities
> while in NOLA, it can logically be viewed as having Cubans, whether
> anti- or pro-Castro, be the bad guys.
>
Or maybe a little nobody stuck his cheap little rifle out a window and
shot a guy less than 90 yards away. Is that too complex an idea?
Or maybe he had just shot JFK and was trying to leave the scene when
he heard footsteps coming up the stairway and he ducked into the
lunchroom to avoid being spotted.
> > I don't. But, then again, there is no evidence or proof that ANYBODY
> > was controlling his actions.
>
> The Dallas police certainly did, with the midnight Kangaroo court
> press conference.
They had him in custody. Nobody was controlling his actions.
I don't believe in coincidences. But many nutters do. They use that
line a lot and they have been critical of me for taking a dim view of
coincidences. But this works two ways..... Do you think it was just a
coincidence that Tippit apparently showed up at LHO's apartment and
then he seems to have had a run in with him just a little later? I
have always viewed Tippit as a very questionable figure in all of the
events.
No, it has not been established. They lied.
> assassination; but I'm confident that anyone who had the time could
> demonstrate the fallaciousness of the probability calculations, even
> leaving that inconvenient fact aside.
>
In other words you fail.
> First it needs to be recognized that the only reason certain virtually
> identical "impulse patterns" were rejected as "matches" was because
> they did not fit the timing in the Z-film and/or other preconceptions.
You know nothing about the design of the tests. The tests were designed to
be loose enough to be able to find matches to the shots on the tape. By
being designed to be loose they expected that about half the results would
be false alarms. But they found 15 matches which were significant enough
to be considered. So if only about half of those were really shots then
they could have as many as 7 real shots. But some of the false alarms were
almost identical to the other nearby matches. So the difference would be
just one shot with the muzzle in the plane of the window and the next with
the rifle drawn back two feet. Same shots, same location. Other matches
would be adjacent microphones so that the real location of the cycle might
be halfway in between the two microphones. Only in a couple of cases would
they have matches at the same time from two different firing locations.
Then they did have to choose which was the better match. After BBN
narrowed it down to 5 real shots, the HSCA made the political decision
about which one hit which thing. It came down to a choice of lining up the
shots with either of the last two shots being the head shot at Z-313. I
think they made the wrong choice in saying that it was the shot from the
TSBD. I think it was the grassy knoll shot.
> And this is within a fairly short period of time; with many "impulse
> patterns" to pick from, it's not surprising that some could be picked
> that seemed to match what is seen in the Z film.
>
You think it's a coincidence that the acoustical evidence found exactly
three shots fired from the sniper's nest all within 9 seconds?
> The "acoustic evidence" as finally presented has still been
> interpreted differently by different people. The fuzziness of the data
> increases the more you know about it.
>
You know nothing about the data.
> With a great will to believe, though, one finds a pattern that fits
> one's prior interpretation. But you might as well be reading tea
> leaves.
>
The patterns were found mathematically.
> And there is no meaningful comparison with the work done by BB&N on
> the audio recording at Kent State. I don't know of any other instance
> where the technique used to analyze the Dictabelt recording has been
> used anywhere since. (But if you do, by all means, let's hear about
> it.)
>
Oh please. BBN did both. Conditions of each were different. Same science.
That science had been around for many years. It was used to identify enemy
artillery locations from the echoes. It is used every day today in cities
to instantly identify where gunshots are fired.
Ok, I commend your attempt to make sense of the assassination from the
Anybody but Oswald school of thought, but there are a few problems
with the theory you advance.
Hopefully you can close the gaps with something that makes sense.
As you note, there's no evidence that supports any of your conjecture,
but let's ignore that for now.
Right now, we're just looking for a theory that fits the known
evidence that shows Oswald is not guilty.
>
> 1 If Oswald was a patsy and if he did take a rifle that day it is
> possible that someone approached Oswald prior to the assassination
> wanting to buy his rifle. Maybe give him twice its value or even
> more. Said they needed it to go hunting that weekend with friends so
> really needed it the following day or the deal was off. Would pick it
> up in the afternoon from the TSBD after the president had been through
> dallas. He needed the money he was broke (this explains if he was
> expecting money that day from the sale of the rifle him thinking he
> could afford to leave Marina $165 that morning).
Oswald always doled out money to Marina a little at a time -
regardless of how much he had. He never before gave her a large lump
sum, regardless of how flush he was. So you need another theory to
explain why this day was so out of the ordinary. Was he not planning
to come home ever again, perhaps? If he was, why not surprise her with
a nice dinner out, or some flowers, or a new washing machine? Instead,
he just leaves almost all the money he has in the world to Marina that
morning, with no explanation?
Please re-try. What was different about this time that he would act so
out of character that morning?
>So Oswald went out
> to Irving to collect it that Thursday. hemade the paper bag that
> Thursday to do that. Why Frazier never saw the bag he made being taken
> out to Irving is for someone else to explain.
Not a big deal. He folded it upon itself numerous times and stuffed in
his pants or jacket pocket.
Only conspiracy-minded people think Frazier needed to have seen it on
the trip to Irving or that means Oswald never took it there.
Something that small and easily concealable is only an issue to the
Anybody-but-Oswald crowd.
> Prior to 1963 you
> would not necessarily associate a rifle and the assassination of a
> president so that would not have even crossed his mind and he had seen
> a couple of other rifles in the building a few days before with Truly
> and others at work.
It was the week prior. And none of the fragments of bullets recovered
from the assassination were traceable to any weapon except Oswald's.
So not an issue, except to the A-B-O crowd.
>
> 2. Him and Frazier were not close friends. Frazier didnt even know his
> last name prior to that day It was none of Fraziers business what was
> in the package and even then probably. not something you wanted to
> broadcast so Oswald just gave him bs about curtain rods to brush him
> off.. . Can you honestly say everytime someone has asked you a
> question you didnt think they had any right to know about you havent
> fobbed them off wth something totally BS. If you are some one who can
> honestly say no to that question you would be in the minority
Ok, not unreasonable. But remember that in custody, Oswald told the
cops
1. he never brought any long paper bag to work, and
2. never told Frazier a curtain rod story, and
3. Never owned a rifle.
You are claiming Oswald lied in custody about all three - making
himself look more guilty - when there was a perfectly innocent
explanation to explain himself.
Why not tell the truth and be done with it instead of lying and making
yourself look guilty?
Innocent people, when accused of a crime, do not lie about their
involvement and make themselves look more guilty. But your theory has
Oswald acting this way.
Care to expand upon this theory to explain why Oswald lied to the cops
in custody about the rifle, the paper bag, and the purpose for the
trip to Irving?
And you're not explaining all the evidence against Oswald. Like the
bullet fragments found in the limo traceable to *his* rifle, to the
exclusion of all other weapons in the world.
So if he was to sell it, did he sell it before lunch (and if so,
where's the money he got for selling it?), or was he planning to sell
it after the President went by, and decided to use it one final time
before cashing out?
Since he only had about $10 on him after the shooting, he either sold
it very cheaply, or not at all. And if that's the case, then the
argument for leaving the money behind for Marina goes pfffft.
And if he sold it, why didn't he tell the cops that when they first
questioned him about the rifle in custody???
Instead, he claimed he didn't own a rifle at all, and then when
confronted with photos of himself with a rifle, said the photos were
forged - compounding the problem!
At no time did he say, "hey, I sold that rifle this morning to _______
(insert name here) and he gave me $__ (insert price here) for it."
Any idea why he didn't tell the cops that in custody? I have a theory
that explains why - it did not happen that way and Oswald was not as
creative as you.
Care to shoot holes in my theory?
So your theory to get Oswald off, while a good first attempt, still
needs some work.
Please get back to us when you have closed some of these loopholes.
>
> 3 answered by 1 and 2
>
> Of course if that happened the question is why didnt Oswald tell the
> police that.? Maybe he was keeping it to himself till he had a lawyer
> present. I mean he would have been wasting his time witht the cops
> that day they wouldnt have believed him.
And if he told the lawyer that in the presence of the cops, what would
that accomplish?
Do you really think the lawyer or the cops would believe it, unless
Oswald named names and showed them the money for the sale of the
rifle?
If you talk to the cops (or any reasonable person, like me) and offer
reasonable explanations, they will listen.
But if you claim all the evidence against you is forged, they know
you're just as guilty as sin and won't.
Nearly 50 years later, Oswald's defenders are stuck in the same mode
as Oswald - denying the evidence against him is legitimate, claiming
it's all forged, and forced to argue for scenarios that they have to
admit have no evidence to support them.
In other words, it's not that easy to come up a theory that explains
the evidence as well as the Oswald-Did-It theory. But don't let that
stop you.
All the best,
Hank
Further proof that you don't know what you are talking about. You just
keep digging yourself in deeper and deeper.
Matches were rejected as shots because they did not fit into the HSCA's
biases.
You have to remember that at the time they found the shots the HSCA was
getting ready to endorse the WC. Blakey was shocked when Barger told him
about the fourth shot. It became known as Blakey's Problem.
That is one thing I cover in my critique of the Ramsey Panel. That BBN
and W&A did not go as far as they should have. For example for one test
they underestimate the probability by using the wrong test. They said
95% probability whereas the correct test says 99.9% probability. They
also did not use the correct probability table so they understated the
actual probability.
You cherry-pick another impulse pattern as a shot because you think
you can make it match your own bias.
> You have to remember that at the time they found the shots the HSCA was
> getting ready to endorse the WC. Blakey was shocked when Barger told him
> about the fourth shot. It became known as Blakey's Problem.
>
>
Blakey continued to suspect that the mob did it, even after the HSCA
report came out.
/sm