"Robert Harris" wrote:
>Mitch Todd wrote:
>> "Robert Harris" wrote:
>>
>>> The second, is just flatly false, since I am hardly the "one" who made
>>> this claim. Dr. Luis Alvarez discovered that there was a loud and
>>> startling noise at 285.
>>
>> Alvarez *speculated* that there was a loud noise. You could at least
>> get the foundation of your story straight.
>
>I don't recall him saying that. He was very clear that his "siren"
>theory was nothing more than a speculation, but when did he say he was
>speculating about the existence of some kind of noise at 285?
Wait. You're claiming that speculation is only speculation when it's
tagged as speculation? Are there other rules for it? Do the letters have
to be the same size? Are there special capitalization rules? DOES IT HAVE
TO BE IN ROSSLEYESQE ALLCAPS? Are anagrams, cryptograms, O.T. engrams, or
the Spanish Inquisition allowed?
In reality, Alvarez' analysis is both informal and largely speculative. He
flatly admits the former, and the latter comes with reading the paper.
It's certainly reasonable that a loud noise like a gunshot could cause
someone to jerk a camera, and Alvarez presents some evidence that this is
so. The problem is that it's also quite reasonable that there are any
number of other causes of panning errors, and Alvarez never tested any
alternative hypotheses to rule them out. Alvarez likely understood this,
pointing out that "a physicist makes many mistakes, and backs up to
correct them one by one," but wasn't going to spend any more on the
problem than he did on formalizing the paper's language.
Alvarez came to the siren theory differently than you seem to think.
Alvarez ruled out your pet blips as gunshots, because the sequence of
blips didn't fit his model of how they occurred. He associated those
particular panning errors with the deceleration of the limousine, which is
why he waits until he discusses the deceleration of the limo to bring up
his siren hypothesis. Only then did he reach the point of assuming that
Greer must have instinctively taken his foot off the gas as the result of
hearing a police siren being turned on, but that was just his speculation,
as everyone agrees. It could just as easily been the equally instinctive,
yet less startling, result of Greer turning around to look behind him and
taking his foot off of the gas.
BTW, Alvarez put his three shots at frames 176, 215, and 312. We both
agree the he was wrong on the first two counts, and he could only miss the
third by trying very, very, very, hard. It seems that Alvarez'
understanding of the underlying mechanism was faulty. There is, of course,
the matter of the shot that you and I both agree happens between frames
220 and 223. If the numbers Alvarez use as latency between stimulus and
startle response are correct, then we should expect to see some kind of
panning error between frame 225 and 229. Indeed, there is such a creature
right in the expected range. So, if that is a reaction to a gunshot, then
we have a pattern to use while looking for other shots in the panning
error data.
>>> And Dr. Michael Stroscio, realized that that noise was a gunshot,
>>> before I knew anything about it. And he fully endorsed my paper, which
>>> corroborated his findings.
>>
>> And where is the corpus of Stroscio's work on gunshots and
>> neurobiology on which this "realization" is based?
>
>So, you misrepresent Alvarez and then attack Stroscio. Great strategy,
>Todd:-)
It's perfectly OK to question whether Stroscio's expertise outside of his
chosen field when he feels free to wander outside the physical yard and
into the neurological one. I'm not sure why you would call it an attack.
>I have no idea, what if anything, he ever did in those areas. But an
>understanding of Physics and the mindset of a highly qualified
>scientist, makes his opinions about a thousand times more valuable than
>ours.
That's the most effin' blatant appeal to authority I've seen in a long
time, and from someone who would normally claim to know so much better.
The funny bit is that you're appealing to Stroscio's authority in
neurology, which is no authority at all.
>And the fact that he and Alvarez were in complete agreement, except for
>the siren thing, makes the presence of a loud noise at 285, a slam dunk.
Which is like relying on the opinions of two plumbers on the subtleties
of Rembrandt's brush strokes.
>But if you aren't concerned about the science, then let's talk about the
>fact that the Physicists determined that Zapruder reacted at 290-291,
We can't presume that Zapruder reacted to *any* external stimulus for
*any* of the panning errors. He could just be taking a half-step in order
to keep tracking the limo, or his vertigo might have picked that instance
to kick in, affecting his tracking. Or, Sitzman might have jostled him at
that point...and there are any number of other possibilities. Neither
Alvarez nor Stroscio were able to identify or rule out any other
alternative possibility. Neither really tried. While Alvarez ruled out the
z290 errors as not being a caused by a gunshot, that's not quite the same
thing.
>and that every surviving passenger in the limo began to drop their heads
>or spin around in the same 1/6th of a second, at 290-292.
Nellie doesn't drop her head, she moves it sideways, out of the way of her
husband's noggin, which is falling rapidly towards her face. Her husband's
is falling backwards because she's pulling him down and towards her.
Neither looks anything like a startle response. Jackie looks like she's
trying to peer around JFK's elbow, and look him in the face to see what is
wrong. She doesn't look startled, either.
The only real commonality in the movement of the limousine passengers at
this time is that their heads suddenly towards the front of the limousine.
That's true whether the passengers are facing forwards (Greer and
Kellerman) or facing sideways (the Connallys) or somewhere in between
(Jackie). Nothing that would be expected from a startle response, but
exactly the expected result if the limousine suddenly slowed. And, by some
Jovian coincidence, the limo does indeed suddenly decelerate at about that
time.
>Would you like to dispute that, or do you suppose that is all just
>random coincidence:-)
Coincidence, but not random at all.