NVIS on 20 is going to be difficult. It might be possible in the middle of the day, but the antennas on the other end aren't likely to be NVIS too, so that will be a disadvantage. Even an NVIS antenna will have some low-angle radiation, so you might be able to work some stations 1 hop away. You might try sending out a few CQs on FT-8 and checking PSKreporter for locations where you are heard with a strong SNR (say, -5 or better), and then finding RMS stations at similar distance and bearing to try with VARA..VARA needs a better SNR than FT8.
You could also look up VOACAP online or similar for propagation predictions.
Regarding CHU. If you are in AM mode, the pitch should be exact. In SSB mode, the difference will be the tuning error in your receiver, assuming you are listening to the CHU audio and not the AM carrier frequency. It is easy to tell the difference. The audio will be modulated with beeps and speech, while the carrier is just a steady tone. You will not be able to hear the carrier in a correctly tuned radio in SSB mode because it will be 0 Hz. As you approach the correct frequency you will hear the pitch of the carrier go down until it become inaudible at 200-300 Hz. In CW mode, the tuning will be offset so the carrier will be heard at the CW sidetone frequency (which is usually selectable on the radio) when the radio is correctly tuned. To calibrate my radio, I have the radio output the sidetone frequency and tune it to WWV carrier and match the pitch. When it is very close, you can hear the beating between the two tones. If the beats are more than a second apart, you're within 1 Hz.
Some receivers, especially modern ones, have a frequency calibration adjustments. If you are within 100 Hz or so, you shouldn't have a problem with VARA, but if you are more than that, you should calibrate or make manual adjustments to the frequency.
Make sure when connecting you let it go through all its retries. Some stations are monitoring multiple frequencies and can't listen to them all at the same time, so it may take more than 10 transmissions before your connection transmission is acknowledged.