On 20 Jun 2019, at 10:16, Ayrton Bourn <ayrto...@outlook.com> wrote:
The Octopus tariff is based off the day-ahead wholesale market price so whilst there isn't much historical data on the tariff we can inspect the market instead.Here I've separated the average daily price profile by month and have also plotted the variation across a standard day with each colour band representing a quantile of 10%.
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<daily_DAM_price_quantiles.png><daily_DAM_price_by_month.png>
There is loads of historical data on Agile.I've pulled together over two years of Agile daily data on my website.I also tweet the daily Agile pricing via @energystatsuk
Hope this helps.Sent from my iPhoneOn 20 Jun 2019, at 10:16, Ayrton Bourn <ayrto...@outlook.com> wrote:
The Octopus tariff is based off the day-ahead wholesale market price so whilst there isn't much historical data on the tariff we can inspect the market instead.--Here I've separated the average daily price profile by month and have also plotted the variation across a standard day with each colour band representing a quantile of 10%.
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Please don't be fooled into having a battery system and selling back to the grid. It is a complete con.
As an example a Powerwall 2 will cost you around £9,000 installed.
It has a 10 year, 37MWh warranted life, so you can you can put in and take out 3.7MWh each year, although it will decline to 80% of its capacity by year ten.
So at £9,000 and a usable 37,000 kWh it has cost you 9000/370000 = 24.32p per kWh installed and this is charging it for free from surplus generation and also assumes 100% efficiency.
Now you can buy from the grid for around 15p per kWh, using your Powerwall will cost you 24.32p instead off 15p, makes sense.
So year one that's 9.23p times your annual 3,700kWh's usage, so it will cost you £341 more than buying direct from the grid.
Year two kWh cost from grid rises to 16p, so using your battery only costs an extra £304.51.
Year three kWh cost from grid rises to 17p, so using your battery only costs an extra £267.51.
Year four kWh cost from grid rises to 18p, so using your battery only costs an extra £203.51.
Year five kWh cost from grid rises to 19p, so using your battery only costs an extra £193.51.
Year six kWh cost from grid rises to 20p, so using your battery only costs an extra £156.51.
Year seven kWh cost from grid rises to 21p, so using your battery only costs an extra £119.51.
Year eight kWh cost from grid rises to 22p, so using your battery only costs an extra £82.51.
Year nine kWh cost from grid rises to 23p, so using your battery only costs an extra £45.51.
Year ten kWh cost from grid rises to 24p, so using your battery now only costs an extra £8.51.
So over ten years your Powerwall 2 has cost £1,722.59 in more expensive electricity and £9,000 for the installation.
Hey, but don't worry you could have sold it back to the grid for 5.5p making a loss 24.23-5.5 = 18.73p on every kWh you sold.
Better still join all those other enlightened sole's charging their batteries at night on cheap Off-Peak rates of say 9p kWh, bringing there overall battery charge cost up to 33.23p kWh. Sell this back to grid later and make a fantastic 27.73p kWh loss.
And remember your 3.7MWh limit each year that's only 10kWh per day. Hell, why not charge that battery over night at a overall cost of £2.77 and sell it back to the grid next day for 55p. Winner.
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Hi John, an interesting point about CO2.
However, I suspect manufacturing all this kit in China and transporting halfway round the planet probably kills any CO2 advantage.
I remember when I worked for National Grid it was always reckoned that no power station ever produced any power, certainly not more power than was used in its construction, running, maintenance, and decommissioning.
I have DIY battery storage system, but there is no financial benefit, so let us hope you are right about CO2.My battery has been charged with 2.12MWh of surplus solar and returned 1.93MWh.
But you have to wonder had you not let that power go back to the grid did an inefficient coal fired power somewhere have to make up the shortfall destroying your CO2 calculations?
Sorry for being harsh but I have heard so many people talk about getting 5p back when they spent 24p getting it into a battery and even worse charging their battery on Off-Peak, that it is just insane. I just want to scream don't do it. Get out your calculator out first.
P.S what did your system cost per kWh?
>>I don’t know about the financial side yet but the benefit to the planet has to be positive.
possibly doubtful science?1kWhr stored in your battery and used later to boil your kettle is no planet-friendlier than exporting 1kWhr to the grid and boiling someone else's kettle
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Wow!, guys what did I do.
Listening to the debate it would seem that the best system should have a battery that was charged overnight using surplus wind or hydro power, so that heaver loads during the day would be covered by the additional solar input. In this way more power would go back into the grid offsetting CO2 and reducing your own footprint to an absolute minimum.
I remember after 911 and the more recent volcano dust eruptions in Iceland how all the sky's cleared of cloud caused by aircraft condensation trails. Sky's under which solar generation would have rocketed.
So, here's the thing I live under the Gatwick flight path and if we could engineer a strike of all British Airways staff for just a couple of days we could reduce CO2 emissions by hundreds of tons. Now that would be a legacy to leave your grandchildren.
London – NYC 986Kg
London – Perth 3,153Kg
Need I say more. BeachComber.
P.S. Beach-combing is CO2 free.
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From a cost side the calculations are interesting. Including hardware and fitting we spent about 20k on the whole system. We get the fit payment of 650 a year. The amount paid for import of gas and electric this year will be around 800. In effect that means a usual energy bill of around 1500 a year has been cut from 900 to 250 by installing the batteries (I am using the fit payment to offset the cost).
The calculations get worse, we run a phev. Over 70% of the miles are electric and around 70% of those are from solar. It means we have cut the fuel bill on the car from around 1500 (cost for a diesel) to around 480 in petrol a year plus added little impact to electricity bills.
You add this up and we get an offset saving of 1670 a year of money not leaving the house hold. This means the pay back time is still in the 10 to 12 year frame but does not take into account the savings on less tax paid on utilities. Any electricity that is self used is not taxed nor is any fuel saved in the car.
My final point is power loss for th grid. According to this https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Grid_(Great_Britain) around 7.7% of power produced is lost completely. When you consider that by micro generation that loss is reduced to near zero, you find a further benefit .
20k of cash at current rates does not yield much, interest rates are near as can be said zero. The stock market is not great and dividends are not always paid. As far as long term investment and cost off set is concerned, the system we have is doing well. Just wish could store all the generation.
I know we have a larger system and this makes the net zero easier.
We live in interesting times at the moment and the economic outlook is not great at the moment. All we can do is use the resources we have to our best ability. Stay safe.
Some stats on the installation.