A lot of systems installed around 2010/2011 are now near to what owners regard as "payback".
Either soon approaching, as Kevin is, or now passed, as Alan and Keith have.
A little sooner, or a little later makes little difference to being satisfied this was a valid investment to have made.
Interpretations of payback seem to vary by individual and I recall companies were also varied in their definitions of this.
As Chris correctly points out, interest against capital may have been overlooked - however,
that simple approach may be justified by also overlooking reduced import costs where these will be of a similar order.
You could not have expected to have known/calculated this with much accuracy when making the investment decision!
We all had to go with "ballpark" figures and some level of confidence in these.
The percentage of generation not going back to the grid was not easy to estimate in advance and varies with lifestyles.
Salesmen often ignore loss of interest on capital yet always include/overstate the reduced billing.
I suspect some people were misled into thinking some "50%" figure in the tariff meant their bill would reduce that much!
Another more common misunderstanding exploited was comparing annual
returns on capital with savings rates (where capital is returned), instead of using a reverse mortgage model.
I recall taking generation estimates from salesmen into my spreadsheet,
factoring in all this plus maintenance/inverter-replacement and showing them back a very different payback period! - Ironically their payback period was actually close enough to the later reality
but for the wrong reasons as the SAP figures they were bound to use were significant lower than later actuals.
After installation, several people asked "so are these panels
worth it" and I'd say that depends on your own circumstances/outlook.
If still interested I'd refer them to my production figures and finance notes/guidance so they could work out their own answer.
See estimating/tracking tabs at
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fQ_8JhVOGy3cvNsWPoDyWjYLJQtjtw16jp4yeUW2DE8/edit?usp=docslist_api
My 3.96kW installation cost £14,971 back in November 2010 and this month passed 33000 generated units, averaging £2,200/yr income.
The simple
return on capital was 6.8 years or 6.6 years including usage. A return including investment interest at 3% will be around 8.6 years or
7.6 years allowing for billing reductions due to usage. Lending out the capital at £145/month repayment over 25 years
(£1740/yr is exceeded by FiT income) equates to a 10.7% "mortgage" rate
to repay capital plus interest. By any method we all are or will be into some of the profit we deserve for committing capital and taking a modest investment risk.
Before you consider a battery system consider the costs.
A Powerwall 2 installed in the UK is going to cost you at least £8,000 installed. It has a warranted use of 37MWh and a warranted 10 year life.
That means a maximum use of 3.7MWh per year to stay inside the warranty. My yearly use is 5MWh so it would only last 7 years for me.
£8,000 installed for 37MWh system works out at 8,000/37,000 = 21.62p kWh, when charged by free solar.
I don't know about you, but I don't pay that much for my electricity, so why would I buy one?
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Can I throw in a curve ball, to use an Americanism...?
Has anyone considered Voltstorage flow batteries, rather than conventional lithium ion?
Much more expensive up front, but with zero capacity fade, and twenty year life, the per-KWh
Is half that of lithium ion batteries.
If you're planning to stay in your current home and investing for the long term, this seems to be a better investment.
I haven't seen what the round trip efficiency is (ie if you put in 6KWh, do you get 6KWh back?) but I think that may already be factored in the per-KWh price.
Battery now matches the expected life of panels. It also eliminates the CONSIDERABLE installation costs of replacing lithium ion after 5-10 years.
The unknown is the continually falling cost of lithium ion; might it have more capacity at lower per-KWh price in 5 years?
I don't see such a rosy EV future, as most car owners now can't park outside there own house, how are they going to charge their batteries?
I am all electric, so at night I charge up my night storage heaters and heat my water, so there won't be any spare for charging either of our cars.From 2025 no new house builds will be allowed to use Gas, so will be forced to use electricity for heating.
I also don't believe most homes have a sufficient power supply to charge EV. The supply to my house is fused at 60A, say 15kW max and a Tesla car has a 75kWh battery. Thats a 10 hour charge at 7.5kWh and what about second car charging and the night storage and water heating. I can't work somebody has not done their sums.
On batteries, I have battery system which is charged by surplus PV and a couple of additional solar panels that charge the battery directly. When discharging, the first 1kWh of load is supplied by the battery, the rest comes from the grid. No power goes through the meter.My 13.36kW battery is 8.16kW FLA and 5.2kW LiFePO4, as an example of efficiency 1374.94kWh went in and 1236.57kWh came out. So efficency is 89.936% but I expect that to improve as the FLA I have had for 18 months and the LiFePO4 for only 6 months.
Regards Howard.
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FIT rates:I think that I'm due for
0.5602432 generated
0.039468 deemed exportedper kWhr wef 1 April 2021, 4kWp system commissioned 2011.Is this right?
Re,
FIT rates:I think that I'm due for
0.5602432 generated
0.039468 deemed exportedper kWhr wef 1 April 2021, 4kWp system commissioned 2011.Is this right?
Yes, if installed as retrofit (up to 4kW) between April 2010 and March 2011, the rates will be
£0.5603/kWh generated and £0.00395 deemed export, according to the official document at