John,
I like your financial presentation. It is a good way to look at this in a different perspective and there for everyone to see. So I welcome this. Unfortunately, I don't believe there are many of our homeowners logged onto this forum, so unfortunately it isn't being seen by many. You should consider sending to a larger database. But since it is a deeper financial approach, it may need a cover page to help the homeowner understand it.
We are not trying to mislead anyone here and I'm hoping you weren't suggesting we were. We are being completely honest, transparent and straightforward with all of the financial information we are providing. The materials are clearly labeled as being the payments over 20 years. The capital costs, the financing costs and the operational costs are all clearly labeled and segregated. In all of the previous WPCA presentations, the annual payments that the homeowner was expected to make have always included the interest and operating costs. Please see pages 14 and 22 of the October 2024 presentation provided to homeowners. Are you upset that we did the math of what does this mean over 20 years? The homeowners were already doing the math anyway, as all they want to know is what will my total out of pocket expenses be for this project.
I believe the financial spreadsheets that we have provided to our homeowners are the most comprehensive analysis of this project that we have had to date (we believe they are a great improvement upon the old F&O analysis that was previously provided. We even provide a comparison of our numbers to F&O numbers). And every line item and assumption is there to be challenged, questioned and reviewed. If people disagree with our estimates, our assumptions, our methodology, no problem (previous challenges are exactly why we increased the costs for contingencies in the current analysis). Homeowners are free to review this information and analyze it in any way they would like. There are MANY estimates, and MANY assumptions in our spreadsheets. The only thing that I am completely confident about this project is that our estimates are not 100% correct. We will be too high on some numbers, and too low on others. Is our total estimate too much or too little, I have no idea? We think it's reasonable, but there is absolutely no way to know. Homeowners can also come up with their own spreadsheets, and their own assumptions, and are free to distribute that analysis to all of the other homeowners. This forum is a perfect opportunity to do that.
With regards to your comments about the State figures compared to the OLS figures, which set of costs are a better representation of the project, we have completed a comparison between the States numbers and our numbers, and I will be posting that today in this forum, Jay is suppose to be posting that on the OLS Web (it appears that only about a dozen or so of our members, besides the Board and WPCA members, are logged onto this forum. The primary differences between DEEP numbers and our numbers is that we are being more cautious with our contingencies. For instance:
- Firstly, with regards to DEEP's presentation of the $44,416 per EDU costs, it is true that their costs did not include operational costs and interest costs. However, the information that we have, identifies that DEEP does consider interest costs and operating costs when assessing affordability. In the August 21, 2023 letter from DEEP to OLS, DEEP references the EPA guidelines that they utilize in determining affordability and provides a link to that document. (I attach the letter below) In those guidelines, it specifically states, that the interest costs and the operational costs should be considered in determining affordability. Further, I have communications from DEEP specifically stating that they do consider operating costs and interest costs in assessing affordability of a project. So in actuality, it would appear that the inclusion of future interest and operational costs should be presented to the homeowners, as it is what the State uses to determine affordability, and it helps the homeowner as it informs them of an estimate of their future obligations. If the State included those costs, their $44,416 per EDU figure would be $62,927.
- In comparing our numbers to DEEP figures some of the differences are - they provide for a 10% contingency on the construction, and we are providing a 23% contingency (although our contingency isn't just for project overruns, it also considers a contingency for potential admin and legal costs and hiring a project manager and other variables). We absolutely hope, that we would not have to utilize that full contingency. But is included here, so that if the overruns are above the 10% threshold that the State suggests, that we wouldn't have to go back to homeowners for further approval. But it is there in clear daylight for all homeowners and everyone to see. No one is being misled. If the OLS community believes this contingency is too great, then we could easily suggest that we vote on a lower level of bond authorization. (one of the complaints of previous years analysis, was that the WPCA was not being realistic in suggesting that the project will only have a 10% overrun, and that the figure should be closer to 20%, which is routinely used in many construction estimates).
- Our Bid estimate provides for a 40% increase from the 2021 bids. This 40% comes exactly from the the bid differences that Old Colony, Sound View and the Shared Project received from their 2021 bids, to the bids they received in February 2025. The State only used a 31% difference. We believe our estimate represents the current market. I'm not sure why the State believes our bid will be 9% lower than the bids received in February?
- We also include a 5% inflation of the bids. This is for two reasons. The first is that we will be going out to bid in June or July, and we believe the market is not improving, but getting more expensive. Hopefully we are wrong, but it would appear there are signs of increasing costs. Also, two of the bidders on the shared project have stated that they will continue to hold their bids open past the 120 day requirement, but that they are not going to commit that there will not be cost increases on their bids. So out of caution, we are utilizing this 5% for their bids also.
- The three contingencies above, are clearly cautious in nature. Again, if the OLS community believes we are being too cautious and want to vote for a lower bond authorization, then that should be brought up in this forum, in discussions and on May 20th. Personally I have no problem with that. So everyone knows - the dollar value of the additional contingencies we have in our estimates, compared to the State are $3.3 million of the overall bond authorization.
- Also, DEEP suggested that the operating costs would be $450 per year, and we have estimated at $1,192 per year. The major difference in our estimates, is that DEEP has not considered any funding for future capital expenditures on the project. This funding and reserving for future capital expenditures is specifically required in the CSA. The difference between our figures and the State's figures is $2.6 million
John, your analysis is another way to look at the project. I'm happy to have that out there. If others have different analysis, they should feel free to share their thoughts also.
As mentioned, I will post the comparison of our analysis and the State Analysis in a separate post.
Marty