Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? | 9am PT Tues, Apr 14, 2026

[Grigory Bronevetsky]

Modeling Talks

Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Martin K. van Ittersum, Wageningen University Tues, April 14, 2026 | 9am PT Youtube Stream Hi all, The presentation will be via Meet and all questions will be addressed there. If you cannot attend live, the event will be recorded and can be found afterward at https://sites.google.com/modelingtalks.org/entry/can-sub-saharan-africa-feed-itself More information on previous and future talks: https://sites.google.com/modelingtalks.org/entry/home Abstract: Some 54% of the world’s population increase until 2050 will occur in sub-Saharan Africa, while the region has also the highest incidence of malnutrition. Its food demand is projected to double between 2020 and 2050. Previous assessments of SSA’s potential to achieve cereal self-sufficiency were pessimistic. Here we show self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020, despite a 29% increase in population, due to area expansion, changes in grown cereal crops and yield increases. The larger baseline area in 2020, a larger share of maize and lower projected population increase make achieving cereal self-sufficiency by 2050 more feasible. Yet, large yield gains are needed to avoid further import dependency and cropland expansion which is detrimental for biodiversity and greenhouse gas emissions. Further reading: Van Ittersum, M. K., S. Alimagham, J. V. Silva, S. Adjei-Nsiah, F. P. Baijukya, A. Bala, R. Chikowo, P. Grassini, H. L. E. de Groot, A. Nshizirungu, A. Mahamane Soulé, T. B. Sulser, G. Taulya, F. Amor Tenorio, K. Tesfaye, S. Yuan and M. P. van Loon (2025). "Prospects for cereal self-sufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122(24): https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2423669122 Alimagham, S., van Loon, M. P., Ramirez-Villegas, J., Adjei-Nsiah, S., Baijukya, F., Bala, A., Chikowo, R., Silva, J. V., Soulé, A. M., Taulya, G., Tenorio, F. A., Tesfaye, K., & van Ittersum, M. K. (2024). Climate change impact and adaptation of rainfed cereal crops in sub-Saharan Africa. European Journal of Agronomy, 155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127137 Van Ittersum, M.K., van Bussel, L.G., Wolf, J., Grassini, P., van Wart, J., Guilpart, N., Claessens, L., de Groot, H., Wiebe, K., Mason-D'Croz, D., Yang, H., Boogaard, H., van Oort, P.A., van Loon, M.P., Saito, K., Adimo, O., Adjei- Nsiah, S., Agali, A., Bala, A., Chikowo, R., Kaizzi, K., Kouressy, M., Makoi, J.H., Ouattara, K., Tesfaye, K., Cassman, K.G., 2016. Can sub-Saharan Africa feed itself? Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 113 (52), 14964-14969. Bio: Martin van Ittersum holds a PhD in Agricultural and Environmental Science from Wageningen University. He is a professor at the Plant Production Systems group of the same university. His research and teaching focus on research concepts and methods for the analysis, design and integrated assessment of agricultural systems from field to farm, regional and global level. He has led and is leading a large number of (inter)national projects dealing with global food availability, integrated assessment of agricultural systems, yield gap analysis, phosphorus scarcity, climate change and circular food systems. He was the co-chair of the 1st , 4th and 5th editions of the International Conference on Global Food Security. In 2015 and 2016 he was the interim chair of the Farming Systems Ecology group at Wageningen University. Since September 2022 he is visiting professor of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. He has been nominated a highly-cited researcher (Clarivate) from 2015 to 2025 and has (co-)authored over 250 papers in international scientific journals.

[Grigory Bronevetsky]

Video Recording: https://youtube.com/live/h2gaWETWScI

Slides: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E74Y-qrds-JfKYenT1_kvER3jxK9md49/view?usp=sharing

Summary:

• Outlook: 

  • Global demand for food will increase by 35-50% by 2050

  • Growing GDP drives demand for more caloric intake

  • Highly regional: Asian and African population will grow most

  • Crop yields have grown significantly since 1960 but much more in developed world (North America, Europe) than developing (Africa)

  • Area harvested has changed regionally: 

    • Dropped somewhat in Europe and North America (still much higher total yields), 

    • Increased hugely in Africa (240% increase in area but 170% increase in total yields)

    • Moderately in Asia, South America

• Extremes:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa will face the largest increase in food demand but low efficiency production; need to improve supply  to keep up with demand

  • Europe’s population will stabilize/decrease, so need to focus on sustainability

• Can Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) feed itself on the current harvested area?

  • Focus on: 

    • Countries: Burkina Faso, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia

    • Crops: Maize, wheat, rice, sorghum and millet

  • Must increase yields on land currently used for agriculture without destroying more natural ecosystems

  • Yield 

    • Driven by solar radiation, temperature, CO2, water, soil

    • Constrained by” nutrient deficiencies, sub-optimal management, pests, weeds, diseases

• From 2010-2020:

  • Population increased by 29%

  • But self-sufficiency consistently increased

    • Total yield increased more

    • More maize grown instead of millet (more calorie dense)

    • More area harvested

    • Yield increases (large in Ethiopia but small in other countries)

• 2020-2050

  • Expecting 75% increase in population

  • At current yields, self-sufficiency would drop to 50%

  • If current trends continue, full self-sufficiency would be achieved in a few countries but mostly would not (20 kg/ha/year)

  • But if yields improved to 50% of rainfed potential, full self-sufficiency would be achieved on the current area (58 kg/ha/year)

  • Without self-sufficiency SSA would be dependent on external world politics and pay for food imports, OR would need to expand farmed area, destroying ecosystems

• Key question: how much more nutrients are needed to drive yield improvements?

  • Today, application of N is much lower in SSA than in developed countries

  • Crops consume more N than what is applied as fertilizer, so soil is being mined for nutrients

  • We require significant amounts of fertilizer to achieve yield goals

  • But, fertilizer manufacture involves significant GHG emissions. Is this climate smart?

  • Scenarios:

    • If we apply fertilizer optimally then fertilizer emissions don’t increase and emissions from deforestation drop since its not needed (still, 3x increase in fertilizer)

    • If we use current practices emissions would rise due to increasing demand for fertilizer

  • Expecting additional 60% population growth 2050-2100, so need continual improvement