Modeling decarbonization pathways towards climate neutrality | 9am PT Tues, Apr 1, 2025

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Grigory Bronevetsky

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Mar 28, 2025, 5:49:31 PMMar 28
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image.pngModeling Talks

Modeling decarbonization pathways towards climate neutrality

Gunnar Luderer,
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

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Tues, April 1, 2025 | 9am PT

Meet | Youtube Stream


Hi all,


The presentation will be via Meet and all questions will be addressed there. If you cannot attend live, the event will be recorded and can be found afterward at

https://sites.google.com/modelingtalks.org/entry/modeling-decarbonization-pathways-towards-climate-neutrality


More information on previous and future talks: https://sites.google.com/modelingtalks.org/entry/home


Abstract:
Halting global warming requires achieving climate neutrality, i.e., a balance between greenhouse gas sources and sinks. My presentation focuses on integrated assessment models (IAMs), modeling tools to assess pathways to climate-neutral economies and energy systems, and insights derived from them. Key elements for achieving climate neutrality are (i) rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply, (ii) electrification of most end-uses, (iii) transition to biomass and renewable hydrogen-based fuels for residual non-electric energy demands, and (iv) carbon dioxide removal. With comprehensive climate action warming can still be held well below 2°C and returned to below 1.5°C.


Bio: 

Gunnar Luderer leads the Energy Transition Lab at PIK, and is the Lead Scientist for the REMIND Integrated Energy Economy Climate Model, and serves as Deputy Chair of Research Department 3 - Transformation Pathways.  He is also Professor of Global Energy Systems Analysis at the Technical University of Berlin.  He contributed to several several reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as UNEP Emissions Gap Reports. He studied Physics, Economics and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Heidelberg and Oregon State University. He performed his doctoral studies at the MPI for Chemistry in Mainz. Gunnar Luderer has published more than 100 papers in peer-reviewed scientific journals, and is regularly recognized as one of the World's most Highly Cited Researchers by the Web of Science Group.

https://scholar.google.de/citations?user=RFKiRUEAAAAJ&hl=de

Grigory Bronevetsky

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Apr 2, 2025, 1:56:18 PMApr 2
to Talks, Grigory Bronevetsky
Video Recording: https://youtube.com/live/mgURBAim50I

Summary:

  • Focus: Energy transitions towards climate neutrality

  • Climate change:

    • 2024: first year above 1.5C

    • 2015-2024: 10 warmest years on record (probably going back 100,000 years)

    • Warming has been extremely rapid compared to prior changes (e.g. ice age transitions)

    • We’re getting close to key tipping points 

      • Death of coral reefs

      • Melting of ice sheets (Arctic, Greenland, Antarctica)

  • Impact on economic prosperity

    • Warming can impact economic growth relative to no-warming baseline

    • ~20% from 1.5-2C warming

    • ~60% from 3-6C warming

    • Economic damage from 1 Ton CO2 ~ $200 (US EPA, 2023)

    • In contrast, the cost of decarbonizing the economy is a few % of growth

  • Every Ton CO2 adds to global warming: total warming roughly proportional to cumulative emissions

    • Implication: if we want to limit warming to a specific temperature there is a total budget for CO2 emissions

  • Integrated Assessment Modeling of Climate Change: REMIND: https://www.pik-potsdam.de/en/institute/departments/transformation-pathways/models/remind

    • Macroeconomic model: 

      • Maximize welfare

      • Subset to budget constraints

      • And production function

    • Energy system (process-detailed)

      • Energy supply

      • Buildings

      • Industry&materials

      • Transport

      • CO2 removal and use

    • External models:

    • 12 world regions

    • Time horizon: 2005-2100

    • Co2, CH4, N2) and fluorinated gases

    • Key non-linearitiers: tech learning, renewable integration, production function

  • Can simulate various scenarios for decarbonizing the world

    • Broken down by industry-specific reductions

    • Easier to decarbonize: power supply

    • Harder: transportation, steel making

    • Require carbon removal tech to make up for the hard to decarbonize sectors and undo past damage

  • Energy technology trends

    • Solar and wind have gotten significantly cheaper

    • Now generally cheaper than non-renewables

    • Batteries have dropped in costs by 80-90%

    • Threshold $150/KWH of where electric cars become cheaper than gas based on total cost of ownership

    • However, nuclear power is not getting cheaper, so most likely careful combination of solar, wind, batteries and long-term storage via H2 will be the most cost-effective option

  • Can evaluate the impacts of different climate policies and tech trends

    • Emissions reductions

    • Energy prices for different types of fuel and power generation types

    • Electricity share of global demand

      • Buildings and industry can be driven by electricity

      • Transport:

        • Easy to electrify road transport

        • Oceanic shipping and planes require high energy density, so liquid fuels will predominate, hopefully created using clean power

    • Steel manufacture will take time to decarbonize

    • Buildings: expect increase in power demand for heating/cooling, cooking and data centers but this demand can be electrified

  • Competition between direct and indirect electrification (slide 30)

    • Direct electrification significantly cheaper than e-fuels: building heating, light transport

    • Direct electrification and e-fuels similar costs: high temp heat, heavy duty trucks

    • Impossible-toelectrify sectors: aviation, shipping, chemical feedstocks, primary steel

    • Indirect electrification: e.g. power-to-gas e-fuel

      • Lower efficiency: <.5 MWH_thermal / MWH_electric

    • Direct electrification : e.g. heat pump

      • Higher efficiency: 3 MWH_thermal / MWH_electric

  • Near-term climate policy implications

    • Based on current policies we expect a stabilization of emissions but no decline

    • To limit warming we need drastic declines

    • Gap: 

      • 20GTons/year in 2030

      • 25-30Gtons/year in 2035

      • For scale: we can scale up reforestation but its still not enough and climate change is making reforestation less effective

  • Must up-scale current tech quickly

    • Renewable energy (solar, wind)

      • Current pipeline of projects is looking good

    • Electric cars: 

      • Need 60-80% market share by 2030 for 1.5C

      • On-track in some markets (Norway, China) but not yet in most of the world

    • Carbon capture and storage from current emission sources

      • Currently 50 MT CO2/Year in 2022

      • Need 100x by 2050

    • Hydrogen electrolysis: need 400x by 2030

    • Direct air capture: need 100,000x increase by 2050

  • Expected cost of decarbonization transition: several $Trillion/year, mostly from private investment


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