Report about the talk:
Naam spoke principally about the short-term, and the forgone conclusion
that climate change is already fomenting increasing socioeconomic strife
because of its effect on water, food, and energy supplies. He spoke
about genetic engineering's role in ameliorating these problems.
He proposes that the USA and other capable nations do the research to
accelerate solutions and to give them away to the developing world once
perfected. The numerous sociopolitical problems that would arise along
the way were beyond the scope of the talk.
On food production, he said that the USA and Canada alone currently
produce enough grain to meet world demand through 2050. The factors that
allow these yields are affordability of water, fertilizer (nitrogen and
phosphorus) and pesticides, something 7/8 of the world's farmers cannot
afford.
The water and deforestation issues can be addressed by drastically
curtailing/reversing deforestation. One promising technology solution
for this involves engineering carbon-neutral biofuel sources that
utilize non-potable (salt) water and require no feedstock (other than
CO2). George Church (
jouleunlimited.com) and a Craig Venter
(
syntheticgenomics.com) were listed as promising players in a field that
includes several others with some of the latter getting poor results
because of the machine-mediated processing that their photobioreactors
require. Joule, Synthetic Genomics and others don’t have to harvest and
process the cyanobacteria, having created organisms that excrete easily
collected biofuels (ethanol, butanol, and others). Current yields are
around 6,000 gallons per acre with target yields at about 25,000 gallons
per acre and a cost equivalence of 30USD/barrel of crude.
The fertilizer issue is being addressed by current research trying to
engineer soy's root nodule symbioses into grains to allow them to fix
nitrogen. There are also some who have reportedly found nitrogen
fixation in other plants besides legumes but much secrecy surrounds much
of this research because of the resulting IP windfall. No mention of a
complementary technology to provide phosphorous.
The pesticide issue is being addressed by more projects, including the
existing golden rice varieties and the BT varieties of grain and rice
that are a current research focus. Asked about reports that BT crops'
pollen is toxic to species of genus Lepidoptera, he said that there was
no evidence of that even though the main stream press had reported that
in stories of the Monarch butterfly's decline. He also discounted the
monoculture issues as these crops are developed with some variability
because they use wild varieties as a template. They also have to be
re-engineered periodically.
Some participants' comments:
* The sociocultural barrier leading to acceptance of GMO foods will make
the current technical and socioeconomic issues look like bumps on the road.
* Scaling the CO2 => Fuel biotech may be too difficult.
* The knowledge gulf between the idea people, and the political
machinery that has to implement these ideas, is wide and growing. A new
breed of bureaucrat will be required.
PS:
One of this list's members wanted me to ask about "direct video to the
brain" and he mentioned recent experiments that transmit an image to the
optic nerve. The achieved resolution was limited by how many electrodes
could be inserted into the nerve without damaging it while surviving the
hostile environment inside the body.
He opined that mapping the connectome may not be as fruitful as some
think because learning appears to involve changes within neurons
(although not as far down as the quantum level as some recent articles
have posited).