Invitation to submit your abstract to the 2023 SSA Annual Meeting session “Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications”

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Magistrale, Harold

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Jan 4, 2023, 3:04:36 PM1/4/23
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Dear Colleagues:

 

We invite to submit your 2023 Seismological Society of America Annual Meeting abstracts to the session “Advances in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis and Applications.” Abstract submission (https://meetings.seismosoc.org/) is open until 05:00 PM (Pacific), January 11, 2023.

 

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was established a half-century ago and has since been used for seismic hazard, as the basis for building codes and seismic risk analysis. 6 Significant improvements have been made in both seismic source and ground motion modeling. The modeling of epistemic uncertainty through logic-trees and other tools has allowed modelers to combine diverse ideas to produce more informative hazard estimates. However, several challenges remain. Despite considerable progress made in the latest decade (e.g., UCERF3), combining different information in the seismic source characterization (e.g., historical seismicity, geodesy, tectonics and paleoseismology) remains problematic. Assumptions about, for example, magnitude scaling, earthquake rates on faults and Mmax are necessary due to incomplete data and lack of understanding and oversimplification of complex earthquake phenomena. On the ground-motion modeling side, an increasing number of hazard analyses incorporate regional and local properties through partially- and non-ergodic models and account for epistemic uncertainties with advanced approaches, such as the ones based on backbone models.

 

We invite presentations on the developing or updating of national or regional hazard models including site specific hazard studies, as well as the application of them, including but not limited to their application in the building code community and insurance sectors. We also welcome studies on model evaluation such as impact on hazard result by different modeling assumptions. Please note that papers specifically on seismic source modeling should be submitted to “Opportunities and Challenges in Source Modeling for Seismic Hazard Analysis” session.

 

Regards,

 

Elliot Klein, Harold Magistrale, Marco Pagani, Matt Gerstenberger, Richard Styron, Sanjay Bora, Yufang Rong

 

 

 

 

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Harold Magistrale  |  Principal Research Scientist
FM Global |  1151 Boston-Providence Turnpike |  Norwood, MA 02062  |  781 255 4970

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