Announcement & Call for Participation: International Contest on Aftershock Forecasting

[房立华]

Dear Colleagues,
We are pleased to announce the launch of the International Contest on Aftershock Forecasting. This global competition brings together seismology, data science, and artificial intelligence (AI) communities to foster collaborations and develop innovative methods for aftershock forecasting.
Earthquakes are among the most destructive and costly natural hazards. A large mainshock is typically followed by numerious aftershocks, some of which may approach-or even exceed-the magnitude of the initial event. Improving forecasts of the largest aftershock in a sequence-particularly its expected magnitude and timing-is critical for emergency response and risk reduction.
While traditional statistical approaches remain foundational to aftershock forecasting, recent advances in big data analytics and AI offer new opportunities for more accurate and robust forecasting. Building on the success of the previous “Aftershock Detection Artificial Intelligence Contest” held in 2017, this new initiative expands the focus from aftershock detection to forecasting. Through this contest, we invite participants worldwide to develop and rigorously evaluate aftershock forecasting approaches that combine physical insights, statistical modeling, and AI-driven techniques.
Key Information
-Competition period: March 31– November 30, 2026 (UTC Time)
-Qualifying Stage (March 31–May 31, 2026): Teams will be evaluated on 20 historical earthquake sequences of MW≥6.0.
-Ranking Stage (June 1–November 30, 2026): Teams will forecast the largest aftershock for each newly occurring MW≥6.0 mainshock with focal depth shallower than 70 km during the competition window. Rankings will be updated once a month.
-Total prize pool: USD 30,000 (all amounts are pre-tax)
First Prize (1 award): USD 10,000 and a certificate
Second Prize (2 awards): USD 5,000 each and a certificate
Third Prize (5 awards): USD 2,000 each and a certificate
-Eligibility: Open worldwide to individuals and teams (maximum 5 people). Cross-disciplinary and cross-institutional collaboration is encouraged. Each participant can only join one team.
Registration and Submission
Please register and submit through the official Alibaba Cloud Tianchi Platform: https://tianchi.aliyun.com/competition/entrance/532460?lang=en-us Detailed rules, data information, and leaderboard updates are available on the same page.
Organizing Structure
Guiding Units:
-Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory
-Department of Science, Technology and International Cooperation, China Earthquake Administration (CEA)
-Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Forecasting, CEA
Sponsers:
-Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA
-China Earthquake Networks Center
-Commission on Rapid Interdisciplinary Investigation of Significant Earthquakes (RI²sE), IASPEI
Co-sponsers:
-SmartSolo Inc.
-Key Laboratory of Earthquake Forecasting and Risk Assessment, Ministry of Emergency Management
-Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
-Artificial Intelligence Branch for Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, China Association for Disaster Prevention
-Commission on Seismic Artificial Intelligence, Seismological Society of China
-Commission on Seismic Observation Technology, Seismological Society of China
-Earthquake Science (an international journal)
Platform Support
-Alibaba Cloud Computing Co., Ltd.
Contact
For inquiries about registration, competition rules, dataset access, and submission, please contact the Organizing Committee at: ICAF...@126.com.
We warmly welcome participants from around the world and look forward to your participation in shaping the future of earthquake science.
Yours sincerely,
Organizing Committee
International Contest on Aftershock Forecasting
March 31, 2026
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The prize money for this competition is exclusively sponsored by SmartSolo: https://smartsolo.com
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