This email is part of Electorate Empowered, a special project of The Well News, and is part of a series of emails over the next three weeks covering the latest polls each Monday through Election Day, races to watch, newly elected leaders and post-election analysis. If you'd like to unsubscribe from this email series but remain on our notification list for future special projects, click here.
You can also click "Manage preferences" at the bottom of any email we send you to update what types of emails you'd like to receive from us. If this email was forwarded to you, subscribe here. |
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 |
There are 6 days until Election Day.
Early voting ends on:
- Oct. 31 in Maine, Maryland and Tennessee.
- Nov. 1 in Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, Nevada, Texas and Utah.
- Nov. 2 in Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia.
- Nov. 3 in Connecticut, Delaware, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Wisconsin and Washington, D.C.
- Nov. 4 in Arkansas, California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and Wyoming.
Early voting has already ended in Kansas and Louisiana. Find your polling place and more here.
|
SPECIAL EDITION: 2024 Elections — Senate Races to Watch |
The fates of 34 Senate seats will be decided next week, but with Democrats holding just a razor thin margin in the chamber, the outcome of a few truly competitive races will decide which party is in charge when the new Congress convenes in January.
At present, Democrats hold 48 seats in the 100-member Senate, and have the support of three independent senators who sit with the party’s caucus and mostly side with it on important issues.
The Republicans, meanwhile, hold 49 seats, meaning that they only need to gain two next week to regain control of the chamber — and one of those appears to be in the bag.
With the retirement of Sen. Joe Manchin, the centrist independent incumbent from West Virginia, Jim Justice, the state’s popular governor, appears all but certain to win the race to replace him.
If former President Donald Trump were to win the race for the White House, Justice’s victory alone would be enough to hand control of the Senate to the GOP, with Vice President JD Vance being the tie-breaking vote on any measure on which the chamber is split 50/50.
Even without a Justice victory in West Virginia, Republicans have been optimistic all year about their chances of flipping two states — Montana and Ohio — that Democrats now hold despite their otherwise being Republican strongholds.
The wild card in any discussion of these races, of course, is the popularity of Vice President Kamala Harris, whose entry into the presidential contest in July gave new life to a party that seemed increasingly back on its heels.
If she wins the White House she could create just enough momentum to pull vulnerable Democrats to victory.
What follows is a list of Senate races to watch next Tuesday: |
Ruben Gallego (D)
U.S. Representative (AZ-03)
|
Kari Lake (R)
Former News Anchor |
About this race: Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, a former Democrat who quit the party to become an independent, is retiring, setting up a nasty contest between Rep. Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake, a Trump acolyte and former television news anchor.
Lake remains an outspoken proponent of the debunked claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Trump, and she famously refused to accept the results when she herself lost the 2022 Arizona governor’s race to Democrat Katie Hobbs.
Gallego, a former Marine, was first elected to the U.S. House in 2014 and represents a district that includes parts of Phoenix.
Considered a progressive on the Hill, both he and Lake have been aggressively courting the moderate voters they both acknowledge they need to put them over the top.
According to the Arizona Republican, five polls released in the past week show Gallego holds a consistent lead over Lake, garnering the support of at least 50% of the participants in each one.
The polls, conducted by four different organizations, showed leads for the five-term member of Congress ranging from as little as 4 percentage points to as much as 10 points.
On average, those polls showed Gallego leading Lake 52% to 45%.
Latest poll released 10/28: (550 LV) Gallego (D) 45, Lake (R) 45, Quintana (G) 2 | Data Orbital
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 49.4%, Trump (R) 49.0% |
Angela Alsobrooks (D)
Prince George’s County Executive |
Larry Hogan (R)
Former Governor (MD)
|
About this race: With Harris leading the presidential race in this solidly Democratic state by 20 percentage points, one would expect Democrat and Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks to be a shoo-in for this race.
Turning that notion on its head is the state’s former Republican governor, Larry Hogan, who served from 2015 to 2023, and remains incredibly popular in the state.
A moderate who chaired the bipartisan National Governors Association, Hogan has positioned himself as a mainstream, anti-MAGA Republican, eager to work across the aisle to get things done for his constituents.
Though he now says he supports a women’s right to choose, Democrats have been hammering him for past statements in which he said exactly the opposite and for vetoing abortion-rights legislation.
If Hogan wins, he would be the first Republican to win a U.S. Senate seat in Maryland since the Reagan administration.
If Alsobrooks wins, she would be the first Black woman to represent Maryland in the Senate, and the fourth Black woman to serve in the Senate in its history.
Latest poll released 10/21: (865 LV) Alsobrooks (D) 54, Hogan (R) 40 | Emerson
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 65.4%, Trump (R) 32.1% |
Elissa Slotkin (D)
U.S. Representative (MI-7) |
Mike Rogers (R)
Former U.S. Representative |
About this race: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring after 24 years in the U.S. Senate.
Hoping to succeed her are Mike Rogers, a former congressman long considered a mainstream Republican, and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin.
Slotkin, a former CIA officer who worked in both the Bush and Obama administrations, has strong national security credentials that have served her well in courting centrist voters in the state.
So too has her history of working across the aisle as a moderate Democrat in the House.
Rogers, meanwhile, has moved a little more toward the MAGA right in this race.
Long a critic of the former president, Rogers, who represented Michigan’s 8th Congressional District in the House from 2001 to 2015, embraced Trump this year, and even gladly accepted his endorsement.
A former chair of the House Intelligence Committee, he has largely campaigned on returning to Washington to fix what he has described as a wide range of shortcomings of the Biden-Harris administration.
The outcome of the race in this most “swingy” of states may well depend on the outcome of the presidential race here.
Michigan was one of three battleground states, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, that were narrowly won by Trump in 2016 and then narrowly won by President Joe Biden in 2020.
Both Trump and Harris have campaigned heavily in the state, and the outcome of their contest may well tilt the advantage in this race.
Latest poll released on 10/27: (1,000 LV) Slotkin (D) 48, Rogers (R) 46 | Emerson
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 50.6%, Trump (R) 47.8% |
John Tester (D)
Incumbent U.S. Senator
|
Tim Sheehy (R)
Former U.S. Navy SEAL
|
About this race: Incumbent Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, who has held the seat since 2006, is running for a fourth term in a state that Trump won by 16 points four years ago.
This year his Republican opponent is Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and founder of an aerial firefighting company, who has been endorsed by the former president.
Though he’s considered a hero by many in the Ag and rural community, Tester, a moderate Democrat, is seen as particularly vulnerable this cycle due to an influx of new residents in the state, most of them Republicans.
He has defied the odds in the past, scoring victories in 2012 and 2018, despite the fact Republicans were sweeping other contests in his state.
As the race has gone on, Tester has had reason for renewed hope. Increased scrutiny of Sheehy’s background has raised questions about his financing his business with government bonds as well as racist comments he’s made in the past about Native Americans, an important voting bloc in the state.
Those questions pale, however, compared to those being raised in recent weeks about the circumstances surrounding a gunshot wound he suffered to his right forearm.
Sheehy, a combat veteran with a Purple Heart and Bronze Star, has repeatedly said during his campaign that he was hit by a bullet during a firefight in Afghanistan.
But in 2015, three years after his deployment, Sheehy reportedly told a park ranger at Glacier National Park that he had accidentally shot himself in the arm.
The candidate’s lawyer has said that Sheehy lied to the park ranger to protect his fellow soldiers because he suspects he might have been injured by friendly fire.
Latest poll released on 10/25: (1,000 LV) Tester (D) 46, Sheehy (R) 50 | Emerson
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 40.5%, Trump (R) 56.9% |
Deb Fischer (R)
Incumbent U.S. Senator |
Dan Osborn (I)
U.S. Navy Veteran
|
About this race: Surprise, surprise, surprise. An independent candidate could upend Republicans’ hopes to take control of the Senate next year.
According to a rash of recent polls, independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn could very well unseat two-term Republican Sen. Deb Fischer in a state long considered a GOP stronghold.
Though Fischer started the race way ahead in the polls, Osborn, a Navy veteran and union leader, who led a successful strike at the Kellogg’s plant in Omaha in 2021, closed the gap by painting the incumbent as an establishment politician who pays more heed to corporate interests than to those who have voted for her. A poll from Change Research, actually has Osborn ahead by 2 percentage points.
“She’s taken so much corporate cash, she should wear patches, like NASCAR,” Osborn says in a campaign ad.
Fischer, meanwhile, has hammered away at Osborn as a Democrat in disguise, a “dangerous Trojan Horse,” despite the fact he has vowed not to caucus with either major party in the Senate.
One of the interesting dynamics in this year’s race is that there actually is no Democratic candidate vying for the office, which means Osborn could benefit from a coalition of support from Democrats and the many, many unaffiliated voters in the state who’ve had it with business as usual in Washington.
“I’m frustrated with the two parties,” Osborn said during a recent appearance on ABC’s “This Week” program. “The fighting, the infighting, the outfighting, not getting anything done.”
Latest poll released on 10/26: (1,194 LV) Fischer (R) 48, Osborn (I) 46 | NY Times / Siena
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 39.2%, Trump (R) 58.2% |
Are you the type of reader who knows persons is newsy for people? Then you’re a perfect candidate to take our two-minute survey. |
Jacky Rosen (D)
Incumbent U.S. Senator
|
Sam Brown (R)
Businessman & U.S. Army Veteran
|
About this race: Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen, a first-term senator elected in 2018, is facing a challenge from Sam Brown, a Republican businessman and West Point graduate who barely survived a roadside bomb attack in Kandahar that left him permanently scarred.
The race was initially close, but was one of the first to show an impact from Harris getting into the presidential race.
By late August, when Harris officially became the Democrat’s presidential nominee, energizing and giving new hope to party supporters in battleground states, Rosen was topping Brown in the polls by 10 percentage points.
Though the race has tightened, a recent AARP poll had Rosen defeating Brown 49% to 44%.
History may also weigh on Brown on election day as a Republican hasn’t won a Senate race in Nevada since 2012.
Latest poll released on 10/26: (683 LV) Rosen (D) 50, Brown (R) 41 | CNN
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 50.1%, Trump (R) 47.7% |
Sherrod Brown (D)
Incumbent U.S. Senator |
Bernie Moreno (R)
Businessman |
About this race: Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is also seeking a fourth term in the Senate, and like Tester, he is the only Democrat holding statewide office in an otherwise red state.
Long considered a friend of the working class, Brown entered the race owed lots of favors — he is, after all, chairman of the Senate Banking Committee, and with a considerable war chest.
But he’s also been walking something of a political tightrope seeking to separate himself first from President Joe Biden and later, from Vice President Harris, in a state that Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2020.
His Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, is a businessman who got his start in auto dealerships and then turned to cryptocurrency.
Like Sheehy, he has been endorsed by Trump, but unlike his counterpart in Montana, Moreno has been slow to win over traditional conservative Republicans in the state who wanted another candidate.
He’s also increasingly come under scrutiny for legal problems related to his automotive business and for controversial comments he’s made regarding women and reproductive health.
Brown has been trying to capitalize, but a recent internal poll by the National Republican Senatorial Committee showed Moreno and Brown deadlocked at 46%, making Tuesday’s outcome anybody’s guess.
Latest poll released on 10/28: (400 LV) Brown (D) 49, Moreno (R) 51 | ActiVote
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 45.2%, Trump (R) 53.3% |
Bob Casey (D)
Incumbent U.S. Senator |
David McCormick (R)
Businessman |
About this race: Democratic Sen. Bob Casey, seeking his fourth term, is expected to win this race against former hedge fund Chief Executive David McCormick, though it could be close.
McCormick, the former chief executive of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, ran for the Republican nomination for Senate in 2022, only to lose the GOP primary to Mehmet Oz, who then lost to Democrat John Fetterman.
Despite McCormick’s previous run for office, Casey, a moderate, holds a decided advantage in name recognition.
He is the son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr., and served as both the state auditor general and treasurer before his election to the Senate.
Throughout the race, he’s used his familiarity to his advantage, lambasting McCormick as a Johnny-come-lately who maintains a multimillion-dollar residence in Connecticut.
McCormick has returned fire, depicting Casey as a career politician who is out of touch with the electorate.
Abortion has also been a hot-button issue in this race.
Casey, who previously ran as a “pro-life Democrat,” has changed his position since the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
The senator now says he supports the protections afforded by Roe v. Wade, which guaranteed women a right to abortion and reproductive health care prior to fetal viability.
McCormick opposes abortion except in the case of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother, while also arguing that the issue should be left up to states.
Though Casey is presently expected to win, the hotly contested race is expected to go down to the wire.
Latest poll released on 10/26: (600 LV) Casey (D) 45, McCormick (R) 42 | AmGreatness / NSOR
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 50.0%, Trump (R) 48.8% |
Colin Allred (D)
U.S. Representative (TX-32) |
Ted Cruz (R)
Incumbent U.S. Senator
|
About this race: Rep. Colin Allred, a former linebacker for the Tennessee Titans, has waged a surprisingly formidable challenge against incumbent Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, eight years after Cruz ran a strong but ultimately failed bid for the White House in 2016.
Allred, a Democrat who flipped a formerly deep red House district in the Dallas area in 2018, is also a former civil rights attorney.
Throughout the campaign he’s painted Cruz as a politician who has become enamored with Washington, D.C., and is failing to do enough for the Texans who elected him to office.
If Allred pulls off what is still seen as an upset, he would be the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Texas since the first year of the Clinton administration.
While Cruz is vying for his third term in the Senate, polls suggest that he is not all that personally popular in the state, and the latest Emerson College Poll found the race to be a dead heat with Cruz garnering the support of 48% of likely voters, compared to Allred’s 47%.
It’s little wonder why Harris gave the congressman a prominent role at her Houston rally last week, an event at which he shared the stage with Harris, Beyoncé and country music legend Willie Nelson, among others.
Latest poll release on 10/26: (1,180 LV) Allred (D) 46, Cruz (R) 50 | NY Times / Siena
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 46.5%, Trump (R) 52.1% |
Tammy Baldwin (D)
Incumbent U.S. Senator |
Eric Hovde (R)
Real Estate Executive |
About this race: Two-term Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is facing a stiff challenge from Eric Hovde, a Republican banker and businessman who is financing his own campaign.
Baldwin was first elected to the Senate in 2012 after representing Wisconsin’s 2nd Congressional District for more than a decade.
Within the state, she’s known as a strong friend and advocate to the rural community. She was also the first openly gay senator in history.
This is Hovde’s second race for the Senate. He sought the Republican nomination in 2012, only to lose out to former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson. Thompson then lost to Baldwin in the general election that year, setting the stage for this year’s contest.
While Hovde has hammered away at Baldwin on issues like immigration and inflation, Baldwin has called the Republican’s Wisconsin bonafides into question by focusing on his personal and business ties to southern California.
Still, the race remains tight, much to the chagrin of the Democratic Party, which had hoped to allocate resources to other vulnerable candidates, like Tester and Brown.
Latest poll released on 10/27: (800 LV) Baldwin (D) 48, Hovde (R) 49 | Insider/Advantage
2020 presidential result: Biden (D) 49.4%, Trump (R) 48.8% |
Calling all wonks: report for duty. Degrees in political science preferred but not required. |
LATEST POLLS
Congress: 2024 generic ballot
10/27: (911 LV) Democrats 46, Republicans 46 | Florida Atlantic University
10/27: (937 RV) Democrats 45, Republicans 46 | Florida Atlantic University
Favorability: Donald Trump
10/27: (2,205 LV) Favorable 45, Unfavorable 53 | Morning Consult
Favorability: JD Vance
10/27: (2,205 LV) Favorable 43, Unfavorable 44 | Morning Consult
Favorability: Kamala Harris
10/27: (2,205 LV) Favorable 52, Unfavorable 46 | Morning Consult
Favorability: Tim Walz
10/27: (2,205 LV) Favorable 47, Unfavorable 38 | Morning Consult
Governor: North Carolina, Stein vs. Robinson
10/7: (800 LV) Stein (D) 52, Robinson (R) 31 | Elon University
House: California, District 51, Jacobs vs. Wells
10/27: (521 LV) Jacobs (D) 61, Wells (R) 25 | SurveyUSA
House: Connecticut, District 5, Hayes vs. Logan
10/26: (620 LV) Hayes (D) 49, Logan (R) 45 | The Hill / Emerson
Presidential approval
10/28: (1,500 LV) Approve 45, Disapprove 53 | Rasmussen Reports
10/27: (2,205 LV) Approve 47, Disapprove 53 | Morning Consult
President: Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (1,291 LV) Harris (D) 48, Trump (R) 47 | TIPP
10/27: (1,928 LV) Harris (D) 49, Trump (R) 47 | Angus Reid Global
10/27: (8,807 LV) Harris (D) 50, Trump (R) 47 | Morning Consult
10/27: (975 RV) Harris (D) 44, Trump (R) 43 | Ipsos
10/27: (911 LV) Harris (D) 49, Trump (R) 47 | Florida Atlantic University
10/27: (937 RV) Harris (D) 48, Trump (R) 47 | Florida Atlantic University
President: Arizona, Harris vs. Trump vs. Stein vs. Oliver
10/28: (550 LV) Harris (D) 42, Trump (R) 50, Stein (G) 1, Oliver (L) 1 | Data Orbital
10/27: (901 LV) Harris (D) 47, Trump (R) 49, Stein (G) 1, Oliver (L) 1 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies
President: Florida, Harris vs. Trump
10/27: (897 LV) Harris (D) 44, Trump (R) 53 | Florida Atlantic University
10/27: (913 RV) Harris (D) 44, Trump (R) 56 | Florida Atlantic University
President: Georgia, Harris vs. Trump vs. Stein vs. Oliver
10/27: (1,112 LV) Harris (D) 47, Trump (R) 48, Stein (G) 0, Oliver (L) 1 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies
President: Illinois, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (400 LV) Harris (D) 58, Trump (R) 42 | ActiVote
President: Indiana, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (400 LV) Harris (D) 42, Trump (R) 58 | ActiVote
President: Michigan, Harris vs. Trump
10/27: (1,000 LV) Harris (D) 49, Trump (R) 50 | RealClearWorld / Emerson
10/27: (400 LV) Harris (D) 52, Trump (R) 47 | Susquehanna
President: Michigan, Harris vs. Trump vs. Stein vs. Oliver
10/27: (728 LV) Harris (D) 49, Trump (R) 48, Stein (G) 1, Oliver (L) 0 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies
President: Nevada, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (1,082 LV) Harris (D) 48, Trump (R) 48 | Trafalgar Group
President: Nevada, Harris vs. Trump vs. Stein vs. Oliver
10/27: (531 LV) Harris (D) 47, Trump (R) 47, Stein (G) 0, Oliver (L) 1 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies
President: New Jersey, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (400 LV) Harris (D) 57, Trump (R) 43 | ActiVote
President: New York, Harris vs. Trump
10/27: (600 LV) Harris (D) 57, Trump (R) 39 | Cygnal
President: North Carolina, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (1,091 LV) Harris (D) 46, Trump (R) 49 | Trafalgar Group
President: North Carolina, Harris vs. Trump vs. Stein vs. Oliver
10/27: (770 LV) Harris (D) 46, Trump (R) 48, Stein (G) 1, Oliver (L) 1 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies
President: Ohio, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (400 LV) Harris (D) 46, Trump (R) 54 | ActiVote
President: Pennsylvania, Harris vs. Trump vs. Stein vs. Oliver
10/27: (1,116 LV) Harris (D) 48, Trump (R) 48, Stein (G) 0, Oliver (L) 1 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies
President: Tennessee, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (400 LV) Harris (D) 38, Trump (R) 62 | ActiVote
President: Virginia, Harris vs. Trump
10/28: (400 LV) Harris (D) 54, Trump (R) 46 | ActiVote
President: Wisconsin, Harris vs. Trump vs. Stein vs. Oliver
10/27: (746 LV) Harris (D) 49, Trump (R) 47, Stein (G) 0, Oliver (L) 1 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Senate: Florida, Mucarsel-Powell vs. Scott
10/27: (897 LV) Mucarsel-Powell (D) 46, Scott (R) 50 | Florida Atlantic University
10/27: (913 RV) Mucarsel-Powell (D) 46, Scott (R) 50 | Florida Atlantic University
Senate: Indiana, McCray vs. Banks
10/28: (400 LV) McCray (D) 44, Banks (R) 57 | ActiVote
Senate: New York, Gillibrand vs. Sapraicone
10/28: (400 LV) Gillibrand (D) 60, Sapraicone (R) 40 | ActiVote
10/27: (600 LV) Gillibrand (D) 58, Sapraicone (R) 39 | Cygnal
Senate: Tennessee, Johnson vs. Blackburn
10/28: (400 LV) Johnson (D) 39, Blackburn (R) 61 | ActiVote
Senate: Virginia, Kaine vs. Cao
10/28: (400 LV) Kaine (D) 55, Cao (R) 45 | ActiVote |
Voter ID not required to take this critical TWN survey. |
For support, just reply to this email.
|
