| | | | | | | | | | Today marks our final edition of the year, the 162nd First Draft of 2024. Since its inception in April, this daily missive of news analysis from the four of us has become the most widely read newsletter in real estate media. We couldn’t be more humbled and grateful — and it’s because of readers like you. With a readership of 141,759 CRE professionals in at least four countries and an open rate well above 60% (not to brag, but that’s more than double the news media average), The First Draft has become a part of your daily routine. We know that because you’ve told us. From the beginning, much to our surprise and delight, our readers have sent us hundreds of emails telling us that this newsletter is their favorite, and we really, really appreciate it. Of course, some of you have told us all the ways we fall short of your expectations — and we love getting those notes, too. Keep them coming! | | | | | | | | When we first conceived of The First Draft earlier this year, we weren’t sure we could pull it off in the way we wanted to. Unlike other real estate newsletters that we read and deeply admire, everything you see in The First Draft is researched, reported and written fresh each morning. And that comes from what we think is a pretty stellar — often sleepy-eyed — squad, fueled by a playlist of doom metal, showtunes and Goose: Catie Dixon in Houston, Jay Rickey in New Haven, Connecticut, Kayla Carmicheal in Chicago and Mark F. Bonner in New York. We start from scratch daily — literally a blank doc at 9 a.m. ET — and work feverishly to wrangle what evolves into about 1,700 words that hits your inbox by 11:30 a.m. ET. This approach is demanding (we run late and we run long sometimes … our bad!), but it’s also what makes The First Draft unique. This is live and up to the minute, folks. Thank you for being an integral part of the journey. Your time and attention mean the world to us, and we look forward to continuing to serve you with the freshest, most relevant insights in real estate starting once again on Jan. 2. With gratitude, we wish you and yours a wonderful, restful and safe holiday season. So, what do you say, meet you again in 2025? — Kayla Carmicheal, Catie Dixon, Mark F. Bonner and Jay Rickey Not getting The First Draft in your inbox? Click here to sign up. Got any feedback or want to send us a mailbag letter? Email first...@bisnow.com. On Our Radar Fed's inflation gauge eased in November. The PCE price index rose 0.1% last month, with a 2.4% annual rate below the 2.5% forecast but still above the Fed's 2% target. Core PCE increased 0.1% monthly and 2.8% annually, both slightly under expectations. Personal income rose 0.3%, and spending grew 0.4%, both below forecasts, as inflation showed signs of cooling. Markets reacted with stock futures falling and Treasury yields dipping. Immigration fuels U.S. growth amid rising restrictions. The U.S. population grew nearly 1% (3.3 million people) between 2023 and 2024, its fastest rate since 2001, with 84% of the increase driven by immigration, the Census Bureau reports. Like the UK and Australia, where growth is also migration-driven, the U.S. depends on immigration but faces deepening political opposition. Border authorities deported 271,484 people last year — a 10-year high — and President-elect Donald Trump has vowed further restrictions. As Bisnow has reported, construction is bracing for impact. Natural gas prices are surging as cold weather (and data centers) drive demand. Natural gas futures jumped 6.2% Thursday to $3.584 per million BTU — their highest in nearly two years. Booming AI-driven data center projects, like Meta's $10B Louisiana campus, are intensifying natural gas consumption, with the sector expected to add 50 gigawatts of gas generation by 2030. Here’s how to participate in Bisnow’s anonymous 2025 “Crystal Ball” project. For years, the Bisnow newsroom has captured raw, unfiltered real estate perspectives on pivotal issues. We began 2024 by asking our readers, How Will You Survive Till '25? That story, along with its midyear follow-up, drew hundreds of thousands of eyeballs and became one of the most-read stories on Bisnow in 2024. In January, we’re doing it again with a new question: What challenges will be most critical to you in 2025, and how will you address them? Submissions are 100% anonymous and limited to 100 words. You in? Send all submissions to first...@bisnow.com. Please include your job title, city, sector and years of experience. Deadline is today.
So, Tell Us The Future | | | | Bisnow/created with assistance from OpenAI's DALL-E | | | | | | | | While federal climate policies may fluctuate in coming months, state governments and private sector leaders will step in to sustain progress — not just because it’s the “right thing” to do but because it delivers value and better business outcomes. As such, the demand for proven, scalable solutions will only continue to grow, and 2025 will see even more innovation and collaboration to meet these needs. Amit Gupta
Founder and CEO
Aeroseal
Dayton, Ohio What's your bold 2025 prediction for real estate? The First Draft team wants to hear from the biggest players in CRE. Give us any and all takes in 150 or fewer words, and they may be published in future editions: first...@bisnow.com. | | | | | | | | Today's Deep Dive: Ugly Duckling Turns Golden Goose As Strip Malls Enjoy Major Image Makeover | | | | Courtesy of TownCentre Capital | | | | | | | | Strip malls were once the plain-Jane stepsisters of the retail world, scorned as charmless eyesores that drew traffic away from traditional business districts, had volatile tenant rosters and offered some nasty environmental impacts to boot, like promoting the use of cars. Now the sector is in the middle of a glow-up, far outdoing its more well-regarded shopping mall siblings for foot traffic, attracting new investor interest and, according to one of strip malls’ most CRE-famous advocates, enjoying the “hottest leasing market that we’ve ever seen.” Read the full story here. This Morning’s News ANALYSIS — Bisnow’s best end-of-year round-ups (and soothsaying?) from around the world of commercial real estate are all in one place. Check it out.
RETAIL — Big Lots To Liquidate After Deal Fails (Big Lots): Big Lots’ planned asset purchase agreement with Nexus Capital has fallen through, the company said, though it still hopes to complete a going concern transaction with Nexus or someone else by early January. All stores will be running going-out-of-business sales. Read more here.
LEGAL — Elie Schwartz Agrees Not To Fight Fraud Charge (Bisnow): Embattled Nightingale Properties CEO Elie Schwartz is seeking to change his not-guilty plea for wire fraud related to an alleged $54M embezzlement scheme. The hearing is set for Feb. 12 in Atlanta. Read more here.
| | | | | | | | Unsplash/Israel Andrade | | | | | | | | OFFICE — More Companies Join Frontlines In RTO Battle (Bisnow): AT&T and Sweetgreen rolled out new policies calling corporate workers back to the office five and four days a week, respectively, starting in January. Read more here.
HOUSING — Apartment Sales Surge 40% (Multifamily Dive): Apartment sales rose by 40% and are now 2% above 2023 levels, according to MSCI. Pricing is down 5.7% YOY, though. Read more here.
PEOPLE — Parkway And Midway Call It Quits (Bisnow): Parkway and Midway are throwing in the towel as a duo a year after starting as a combined company. Parkway laid off a number of its Houston staff, which sources say was related to the split. Read more here.
SFR — Second Avenue Acquires Pacific Oak Residential (Second Avenue): Second Avenue has expanded its single-family rental platform by acquiring Pacific Oak Residential, which manages a $400M portfolio of 2,110 single-family homes. Second Avenue now has 5,300 homes totaling $1.5B under management. Read more here.
RETAIL — Party City Facing Second Bankruptcy (Bisnow): Party City Holdco is considering bankruptcy within the next couple of weeks as it slogs through sluggish sales. It has reportedly stopped paying rent at some locations, and another bankruptcy could result in it shutting down all 700 corporate-owned stores nationwide. Read more here.
REITs — Silver Star To Sell 5 Office Properties (Silver Star): Silver Star Properties REIT anticipates closing on the sale of five office assets in the coming days, and says a ruling in ongoing litigation could come in the next few weeks. Read more here.
INDUSTRIAL — PharmaCann Defaults On Leases (Innovative): Cannabis firm PharmaCann has defaulted on six of its 11 leases with Innovative Industrial Properties. Rent totaled $4.2M for these properties and represented 17% of IIP’s total rental revenues in Q3. Read more here.
ENTERTAINMENT — Sixers' $1.3B Arena Gets Thumbs-Up (Bisnow): After years of back and forth and fierce community pushback, Philadelphia City Council has finally officially blessed the Philadelphia 76ers’ proposal to build a new arena. Read more here.
LEGAL — Yellow Secures Court Approval For Terminal Sales (CoStar): Yellow Corp. received court approval for its $193M sale of 11 terminals. Yellow had previously sold about 160 terminals for nearly $2B. CBRE is marketing the remaining assets. Read more here.
| | | | | | | | Flickr/nycmayorsoffice | | | | | | | | LEGAL — Former Adams Adviser Charged With Taking Bribes From Real Estate Investor (Bisnow): Ingrid Lewis-Martin, former chief adviser and aide to NYC Mayor Eric Adams, was indicted with her son, Glenn Martin II, and two real estate investors Thursday. Lewis-Martin allegedly expedited Department of Building permits for cash bribes in excess of $100K. Read more here.
RETAIL — Starbucks Workers Go On Strike (NYT): Employees at three locations in Los Angeles, Chicago and Seattle are striking starting Friday, and the union said the strikes could spread to hundreds of stores in upcoming days. Read more here.
RETAIL — Amazon Overhauls Drone Delivery Program (NYT): Amazon has revamped its Prime Air drone initiative with the MK-30, a new drone that flies twice as far, is significantly quieter and can identify where to drop packages with the help of cameras and sensors. Read more here.
ENTERTAINMENT — $800M Overhaul Of Capital One Arena Gets Underway (Bisnow): Monumental Sports & Entertainment broke ground on D.C.’s Capital One Arena Thursday with a goal of opening in time for the 2027-2028 hockey and basketball seasons. The teams will continue to play in the stadium through the $800M renovations. Read more here.
FINANCE — Kushner’s Fund Secures $1.5B From Qatar, Abu Dhabi (Bloomberg): Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners has received an additional $1.5B investment from Qatar and Abu Dhabi's Lunate. Kushner said he spoke with investors about additional capital in Q1 and closed the investment before the election. Read more here. *** The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from AI. We’d love your feedback! Email us at first...@bisnow.com. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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