Investment Sales Improvement, Wyndham Cuts Ties With LuxUrban, Presented By Yardi Kube

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May 13, 2024, 11:47:02 AM5/13/24
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May 13, 2024

Happy Monday!

Moody’s has a new report out with an intriguing headline: “CRE Sales Transaction Showing Signs Of Recovery.” That struck us as surprising, considering brokerage Q1 earnings reports largely showed improvement in leasing but little sales activity. But it turns out Moody’s just means things are less bad than they have been: Sales dropped “only 8%” in Q1 vs. 18.4% in Q4. 

Still, the brokerages and Moody’s all share optimism that improvements are coming.

“Despite the current interest rate environment, investors are still willing to invest in CRE, especially in larger projects,” Moody’s said. Transactions in the $50M to $100M bucket rose 43.1% year-over-year in Q1.

And here’s what Cushman & Wakefield CEO Michelle MacKay had to say on the firm's Q1 earnings call: “Although the recent uptick in rate volatility will most likely cause a pause in transaction volumes in Q2, the improvement that we experienced in Q1 gives us more confidence that global investment sales pipelines are solid and investors are ready to engage when the time is right.”

The consensus appears to be that Q2 will be another dreary one, but there might be glimmers of light at the end of the tunnel.

We’ve heard that before. 

— Mark F. Bonner, Catie Dixon, Jay Rickey and Kayla Carmicheal

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On Our Radar

  • Inflation, Inflation, Inflation: Ahead of the consumer price index’s release on Wednesday — which is expected to come in at 3.4% growth overall — all eyes are on housing costs. Rent accounts for one-third of the CPI and one-sixth of the personal consumption expenditure index. Multifamily pricing appears to be moderating, which Morgan Stanley said could turn on the spigot for up to three interest rate cuts. Two-thirds of economists think that will start in September.

  • The April retail sales report is also on Wednesday and is also expected to show a slowdown.

  • Biden’s New EV Tariffs On China: The U.S. is expected to quadruple tariffs on Chinese EVs tomorrow to curb China’s ability to sell its much less expensive electric cars on American soil. The U.S. is way behind its main economic competitor in both the average price for EVs and in erecting a convenient nationwide charging station network. Why? Americans have little reason to buy an EV right now

  • The Reviews Are Out: Netflix’s Man In Full, the Jeff Daniels miniseries about a real estate mogul’s fall from power amid a bankruptcy crisis, is generating some, well, gratuitous observations about the “family jewels.”

  • It’s American Craft Beer Week: In dog beers, we’re only going to have one this week.

 

This Morning’s News

Industrial Loans Surge Amid General Borrowing Slowdown (CoStar): While overall borrowing has seen a decline, loans in the industrial sector have surged by 63%. Hotels were the only other property type to see an increase in lending. Learn about the rise in industrial loans.


Fed Concerned Over Rising CRE Loan Delinquencies (Bloomberg): The Fed has flagged increasing delinquencies in commercial real estate loans as a potential risk to the financial system. Late payments on CRE loans are above pre-pandemic levels. Read about the Fed’s concerns.


Communities Develop Their Own Housing Solutions (NYT): As housing costs skyrocket, some communities are taking matters into their own hands by forming cooperatives to develop and manage affordable housing. These are often crowdfunded projects that traditional lenders wouldn’t finance. Read more about these community-led initiatives.


IRS Audit Could Cost Trump Over $100M (ProPublica): An ongoing IRS audit concerning former President Donald Trump's financial dealings, particularly related to his Chicago hotel, may result in a tax bill exceeding $100M. Explore the details of the audit.


Wyndham Removes Beleaguered LuxUrban Hotels From Its Platform (Bisnow): Less than a year after putting all of its portfolio under the Wyndham Hotels & Resorts Trademark Collection, the two appear to have cut ties. See the latest blow to LuxUrban.


Small Spaces Lead Retail Leases (Chain Store Age): In Q1, spaces under 2.5K SF accounted for two-thirds of all retail sector leases. This trend reflects a shift toward smaller, more versatile retail spaces. Fast-casual restaurants led the charge in Q1, and big-box deals were scarce. Read about trends in retail leases.


Today’s Deep Dive: U.S. Reshoring Rush Running Up Against Labor Market Malaise 

Unsplash/ThisisEngineering

Bringing manufacturing back to U.S. soil is in full swing, but a labor shortage could bring it all to a halt. Companies are struggling to find labor to both build the space and run the completed plants.

Bisnow National Reporter Dees Stribling dove into the latest in the nearshoring push. 

Read the full story here.


Nonresidential Building Momentum Increases (Dodge Construction Network): The Dodge Momentum Index, which measures the initial planning stages of nonresidential building projects, has risen by 6%. This increase suggests a growing optimism in the construction of commercial buildings as 25 projects valued at or above $100M started the planning stage in April. Check the latest on the Dodge Momentum Index.


REITs Rebound (Hoya Capital): REITs have shown a strong rebound as the latest earnings season wraps up. Forty-one percent of REITs raised their outlook, 48% maintained and 10% lowered. Read more about REITs’ performance.


Slowdown In U.S. Solar Factory Boom (Bloomberg): The growth in U.S. solar manufacturing is slowing due to the influx of cheap imports, challenging the domestic industry despite supportive federal policies. This surge in less expensive foreign panels is complicating efforts to bolster local production under the Biden administration. Many of the $16B worth of solar manufacturing plant projects announced in the last two years have been put on ice. Explore why these projects aren’t coming to fruition.


Data Center REIT Equinix Refutes Short Seller Claims, Reports 7% Revenue Growth (Bisnow): Equinix is pushing back on accusations it has artificially inflated its value. An internal investigation found no wrongdoing, but a federal inquiry into its accounting practices is still underway. Get up to speed on the investigation.


Tech Talent Exodus Amid Return-to-Office Mandates (WaPo): A recent study has found that forcing a return to the office has led to significant attrition among top tech talent at major firms like Microsoft, Apple and SpaceX. Many employees chose to leave rather than comply with mandated office returns. Learn about the impact of return-to-office policies.


IQHQ’s Bold Bet May Not Pay Off (Bisnow): IQHQ is building huge life sciences campuses around the U.S. — it is responsible for three of the five largest projects underway. But now those developments are delivering in a market of significantly reduced demand. Learn more about IQHQ’s developments.


U.S. Government Boosts Domestic Chip Production (NYT): Polar Semiconductor has been awarded $120M by the U.S. government to expand its facilities as part of a broader push to strengthen the nation's semiconductor manufacturing capabilities amid global supply chain challenges. Read about the federal investment in chip manufacturing.


DLA Piper Survey Reflects Cautious Optimism in Real Estate (DLA Piper): The latest DLA Piper State of the Market survey reveals a "measured optimism" among respondents. Check out the survey results.


Legendary Capital REIT Plans to Sell Hotel Portfolio (CoStar): Legendary Capital REIT has approved a strategic plan to sell its 2,260-room hotel portfolio. Its properties span 10 states and are mostly limited service. Read about Legendary Capital’s strategic decision.


JCPenney Sees Profits, Considers Expansion (Retail Dive): JCPenney has reported profitability in its latest financial results and is considering the possibility of opening new stores. This development marks a significant turnaround for the retailer, which has struggled in past years. Read more about JCPenney's plans.


Starwood Eyes $5.4B Logistics Sector Acquisition (Bloomberg): A group led by Starwood is considering a buyout of warehouse developer ESR, valued at $5.4B. Read about the potential buyout.


New Florida Law Disrupts Condo Market (WSJ): Three years after the tragic Surfside collapse, a new Florida law intended to prevent similar disasters is causing upheaval in the condo market. The law, which imposes stringent requirements for building assessments and repairs, has led to a slowdown in sales and increased financial burdens for condo owners. Explore the impacts of the law.


Sharp Decline In Vacation-Home Mortgages (Redfin): The demand for vacation-home mortgages has plummeted 40% from a year prior and 64% from 2021. This downturn is indicative of broader trends affecting the housing market, especially in leisure-focused areas. Learn about the decline in mortgage demand.


Georgia's Growing Pains With Data Centers (WSJ and Bisnow): As Georgia becomes a popular location for new data centers, the state faces challenges reconciling the high electricity demands of these facilities with its energy sustainability goals. The development of data centers is crucial for supporting technology and business growth, but raises concerns about energy use and environmental impact. Learn more about the challenges in Georgia and the latest legal maneuverings around data center development.


Tishman Speyer Dives Into Data Centers (Data Center Dynamics): Real estate giant Tishman Speyer is entering the data center market with plans to build a campus in Frankfurt, Germany, in partnership with utility company Mainova. Details on Tishman Speyer’s new venture

*** 

The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from ChatGPT. We’d love your feedback! Email us at first...@bisnow.com

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