| | | | | | | | | | It’s tariffs day again as the whole world casts its eyes toward the Rose Garden to see exactly what Donald Trump is going to do. Here in the U.S., hotel owners have a little extra anxiety. Between tariffs and a planned travel ban — and new tensions arising with other countries — tourism in the U.S. may take a steep hit this year. And that’s on top of a slew of difficulties hotels were already facing, including a wave of loan maturities this year. About 35% of hotel and motel loans are maturing this year, and 20% of those are delinquent. About $48B in CMBS loans are due over the next two years. | | | | | | | | “As is with a lot of things going on in the economy, it's very hard to forecast what the president is going to do, and it is conceivable that this isolationism could have a longer-term impact, which is something we're monitoring carefully,” said Mitchell Hochberg, president of The Lightstone Group, a private real estate firm that developed the Moxy hotel group. His firm had been expanding quickly, but Hochberg told Bisnow he’s now rethinking its strategy. Here are the myriad issues hitting the hospitality industry all at once: Hotel Owners Sweat Trump Travel Risk As Debt Tsunami Looms — Catie Dixon, Mark F. Bonner, Kayla Carmicheal and Jay Rickey Not getting The First Draft in your inbox? Click here to sign up. Got any feedback or want to send us a mailbag letter? Email first...@bisnow.com. CRE News Quiz Saturday Night Live (more specifically, a Steve Martin monologue) inspired the name of this newly bankrupt restaurant chain. (Answer at the bottom.) On Our Radar It’s “Liberation Day.” What could go wrong? At 4 p.m. ET, Trump will unveil sweeping tariffs, reportedly hitting all countries with immediate duties. New 25% levies on foreign cars and penalties for buying Venezuelan crude are also expected. Economists are warning of a major fallout — Moody’s sees unemployment hitting 7% by 2027, and Yale estimates households could lose $4,200 in purchasing power. Uncertainty looms across myriad industries. As for CRE, one economist had this to say to Bisnow recently: “Tariffs are going to have an effect on the economy, but I think real estate is relatively well insulated compared to other sectors.” “[Trump] has pledged to build more housing, and we believe the tariffs work against that goal.” That’s Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. Materials from Canada, Mexico and China — critical to homebuilding — face steep duties, with lumber, drywall and fixtures all affected. The NAHB estimates tariffs could add $9,200 to the cost of a new home, while others predict price hikes up to $25K. Builders are already facing weak demand, “far too hot” material costs and labor shortages worsened by stricter immigration policies. CrowdStreet is launching a member council as a $1B lawsuit looms. The 15-person council is set to shape platform strategy and expansion into private credit, equity and venture capital. The group’s first meeting is set for April 3 at the company’s new NYC HQ. CrowdStreet faces a $1B class-action suit over claims it acted as an unregistered broker-dealer before 2023. The case stems from the $63M Nightingale fraud, with investors alleging the platform promoted deals without proper safeguards. CrowdStreet denies wrongdoing. The real estate cocktail story we didn’t know we needed. In 1981, college student David Ervin turned a wild idea into a cultural staple: frozen cocktails served through a drive-thru. His invention of the “sealed lid” (usually part of a straw wrapper or some tape) helped dodge open-container laws, and despite early skepticism, the model thrived — proving that sometimes a chalk sketch and a blender can make real estate history.
On The Charts: Construction Jobs | | | | Courtesy of the Associated Builders and Contractors | | | | | | | | Construction hiring is picking up but is still well below the highs of the last few years, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. There were 264,000 open roles at the end of February, up 22,000 from the month prior but down nearly 39% YOY. Hiring accelerated at its fastest rate in a year. “Still, there are signs that construction workers retain outsized leverage compared to their employers,” Associated Builders and Contractors Chief Economist Anirban Basu said. That’s mostly reflected in the spike of quits — there were 33,000 more this February than last, a 22.3% increase, while layoffs are minimal. This Morning’s News M&A — Brookfield Buys Alternative Mortgage Lender (Bisnow): Brookfield Asset Management is buying Angel Oak Cos., pushing the firm deeper into private credit. Angel Oak focuses on nonqualified residential mortgages and has an $18B portfolio, which will join Brookfield’s $317B credit business. Read more here.
OFFICE — JLL Says Office Is Back — But It’ll Cost You (JLL): According to JLL‘s Global Office Fit-Out Costs Guide for 2025, the office sector is reclaiming its role at the center of commercial real estate strategy, with occupiers investing more in workplace quality. But the average costs for office fit-outs have increased across all regions in the last 12 months. Read more here.
HOUSING — GAO To Investigate Proposed Cuts To Fair Housing (NYT): HUD and DOGE will face a federal inquiry into attempts to slash funds earmarked for the enforcement of fair housing laws. Read more here.
| | | | | | | | SmartStop Self Storage | | | | | | | | REITs — SmartStop Self Storage Pulls In $810M In IPO Debut (Bloomberg): SmartStop Self Storage REIT’s U.S. IPO is one of the largest public debuts in the sector in recent years. Read more here.
LEGAL — RealPage Sues Berkeley Over Ordinance (RealPage): Real estate software firm RealPage is suing the city of Berkeley, claiming a new ordinance unlawfully restricts its First Amendment rights to communicate rental pricing data. Read more here.
IMMIGRATION — Trump Cracks Down On Immigrant Labor, Employers Push Back (NYT): The American Business Immigration Coalition, an organization chaired by a modular construction leader in Arizona, says Congress can stop illegal migration while bringing more people in legally. Read more here.
ECONOMY — GDPNow Plunges To -3.7% (Atlanta Fed): The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model has slashed its Q1 growth forecast to -3.7%, down from -2.8% at the end of February. Read more here.
PEOPLE — Witkoff Wields Power From Real Estate To White House (TRD): As developer Steve Witkoff, described as soft-spoken and easygoing, emerges as a key adviser in Trump’s inner circle, it’s hard to find anybody who will say anything personally disparaging about him. Read more here.
REITs — Multifamily REITs In Crosshairs As Private Equity Circles (GlobeSt): Major private equity firms are eyeing publicly traded multifamily REITs for acquisition, lured by discounted valuations and long-term rental demand.Read more here.
TARIFFS — Manufacturing Contracts As Tariffs Sink In (Yahoo Finance): The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing PMI registered a 49.0 reading for last month, down from 50.3 in February. Readings above 50 indicate expansion, readings below 50 indicate a contraction. Read more here.
OFFICE — Manhattan Clocks Most Active Leasing Quarter Since 2019 (Bisnow): There were 12.2M SF of office leases signed in Manhattan in Q1, the strongest period since Q4 2019. That pushed availability down to 17.7%. Read more here.
| | | | | | | | Courtesy of SG Holdings | | | | | | | | HOUSING — One Of Miami’s Biggest Projects Ever Got Approved (Bisnow): Miami-Dade County approved the $3B Little River District, which plans to create 5,730 multifamily units and 370K SF of retail by 2034. It’s being developed by Swerdlow Group and includes the redevelopment of public housing. Read more here.
AI — AI Shakes Up Data Center Playbook (ZincFive): A new report reveals data centers are rapidly rethinking energy solutions. AI, sustainability and power demands are driving a shift toward smarter, scalable energy strategies.Read more here.
MULTIFAMILY — Multifamily Woes Push CMBS Delinquency Rate Higher (Yield Pro): The CMBS delinquency rate in March was 6.65%, a 35 bps rise that exceeded combined declines from the previous two months. The overall delinquency rate is up from 4.67% this time last year. Read more here.
PEOPLE — JLL Launches Mixed-Use Team (JLL): JLL has named Sean McNamara to helm its new team, The Mixx, which is focused on mixed-use real estate. McNamara recently served as client relationship manager for JLL’s property management team. Read more here.
REITs — Chilton REIT Team Pressures BREIT Over Valuations, Liquidity (Seeking Alpha): Chilton is reiterating its call for public REITs to outperform nontraded REITs for the next two years. Read more here.
| | | | | | | | Wikimedia Commons/Benoît Prieur | | | | | | | | OFFICE — Oceanwide Plaza Lawsuit Settled (Bisnow): The partially built condo tower in Downtown LA is still seeking a buyer, but it has resolved a lien priority lawsuit. Read more here.
FINANCE — Enterprise Secures $407M To Expand Affordable Housing (Enterprise): The two new LIHTC multi-investor funds secured a combined $407M in capital commitments to create or preserve 2,497 homes in 11 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Read more here.
RTO — Amazon’s Office Comeback Recharges Downtown Seattle (CoStar): Downtown Seattle foot traffic has reached daily averages not seen since before the pandemic after three months of Amazon's five-day RTO requirement.Read more here.
REITs — Industrial REITs Align On Standard Metrics For Clarity (EastGroup): EastGroup, Prologis, First Industrial and STAG have agreed on a new standardized method for calculating key property-level metrics. Read more here. *** So You’ve Come For An Answer Hooters. The chain filed for bankruptcy Monday but said it’s undergoing a “re-Hooterization” to a more wholesome vibe as its founders buy 151 locations back and the chain moves to a pure franchise model. Got questions about the 1980 SNL monologue? You’re gonna have to Google it — this is a family(ish) publication. *** The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from AI. We’d love your feedback! Email us at first...@bisnow.com. | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
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