Yardi's WeWork Plans, Amazon's Capex, Retail Closures, Presented By Peloton For Business

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May 1, 2024, 12:08:40 PM5/1/24
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The First Draft
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May 1, 2024

It’s May Day, observed in many places around the world as a time to air economic grievances. That’s appropriate in the U.S. since it’s also Fed Day, and most readers will probably not be very merry after Jerome Powell speaks.

But the watercooler talk today will also have a green tinge as pot and electric vehicles dominate the headlines.

Weed stocks are surging on news the Drug Enforcement Administration is pushing to reclassify marijuana as a lower-risk Schedule 3 drug. It’ll be months before the agency makes an official decision, but expect more investment into cannabis and higher profitability for those businesses right off the bat. 

CRE will be watching if Congress takes the additional step of passing the SAFE Banking Act to allow federally chartered banks to do business with cannabis companies. That bill would protect lenders and landlords from federal prosecution for doing deals that are legal locally.

In other news, Elon Musk laid off Tesla’s entire 500-person electric vehicle charging team yesterday. This team builds the industry-leading Superchargers, and its disbanding will mean a slowdown in charger installation around the U.S. — a blow to CRE landlords that have been looking to add chargers as an amenity.

EV adoption has been sluggish in the U.S., partially because the infrastructure isn’t there, so Tesla’s pivot will make the whole chicken-or-the-egg scenario even more complicated.

— Jay Rickey, Kayla Carmicheal, Mark F. Bonner and Catie Dixon

Today's newsletter is a 5.8-minute read.

 

 

Open Mic: Weed Edition

How would the DEA’s reclassification of marijuana further impact CRE? Let us know at first...@bisnow.com, and we may publish your response tomorrow.

On Our Radar

This Morning’s News

Sharp Increase In Buyouts Of Delinquent CRE CLO Loans (BNN Bloomberg): Multifamily delinquencies are on the rise, but lenders are stepping in to limit the pain by taking over troubled loans. There has been a 210% surge in the buyouts of delinquent commercial real estate collateralized loan obligations. Read more about the CRE CLO loan trends.


Pexels/Joshua Brown

Amazon's Q1 Capital Expenditure A Prelude To Greater Investment (Seeking Alpha and WSJ): Amazon's CFO has declared the $14B spent on capital investments in Q1 the "low point" for 2024. This signals more substantial expenditures in the future, particularly in AI and cloud computing, and will result in more data center development. Learn about Amazon's financial strategies and its AI ambitions.


Yardi To Hold WeWork At Arm's Length (Bisnow): Yardi is expected to be the majority owner of WeWork whenever it emerges from bankruptcy, but it doesn’t plan to get physical in its operations. It told Bisnow WeWork will be "a separate entity managed at arms-length from Yardi’s core business." See what Yardi said about its investment.


Massive Retail Store Closures Predicted By UBS (Retail Dive): UBS forecasts more than 45,000 retail stores could close within the next five years. It said the U.S. is still oversupplied on retail, and the rise of Temu, Shein and more is still pushing market share toward e-commerce. Learn about the potential impact on retail.


Today’s Deep Dive: Off With The ‘Handcuffs’: How No Noncompetes Would Change CRE

Pixabay/WikimediaImages

The FTC’s ban on noncompete clauses has been hailed as a win for workers, and anyone who has had to make unpalatable decisions because of being bound by one is probably feeling pretty good. 

There is evidence that noncompete bans lead to wage growth, more job mobility and an increase in new company formation. All of that happened when Hawaii and Washington banned noncompetes for the tech industry in 2015.

But there could be repercussions to CRE if these go away. The most likely impact could be on training for new brokers, Bisnow National Reporter Patrick Sisson found. 

Read the full story here.


CRE Executive Advocates For Industry Changes In Congress (Morningstar): Real Estate Roundtable CEO Jeff DeBoer testified before Congress, describing the sector as facing a "slow-moving train wreck" and presenting potential legislative fixes. Explore the testimony.


Invitation Homes Expands Portfolio With Lennar Partnership (Lennar): Invitation Homes has entered a joint venture with Lennar’s Quarterra, Centerbridge and other capital partners to manage 4,400 homes. This move builds on Lennar's 2021 launch of the $4B Upward America SFR platform. Read about the joint venture and the 2021 platform launch.


Belgian Co-Living Firm Moves Into London, D.C. And More (Bisnow): Cohabs, a co-living firm backed by Ivanhoé Cambridge, is opening in London, Milan and Washington, D.C., this year with a target to own at least 500 beds in each. Its portfolio consists of 2,700 rooms across seven countries. Dive into its growth plans


ISS Backs Activist Investor In Whitestone REIT Battle (Erez and CO): Institutional Shareholder Services has recommended that Whitestone REIT shareholders support activist investor Erez's proposals, a push for change at the REIT amid ongoing management disputes. Read about ISS’s recommendation and the REIT showdown.


The Cities With The Most Industrial Real Estate Construction (CommercialEdge): The top five metros for industrial deliveries are Dallas, Phoenix, Houston, Chicago and the Inland Empire. Dig into the rest of the list.


Murder Conviction Overturned For Death Of Real Estate Developer (Atlanta News First): The Georgia State Supreme Court has overturned the murder conviction of attorney Bryan Keith Schmitt, citing critical legal errors during the trial. Schmitt was convicted of killing real estate developer Hamid Jahangard in 2019 after an argument. Read about the overturned conviction.


Optimism At NYCB (CNBC): Shares of New York Community Bank surged — even though the bank posted a $335M quarterly loss — following the new CEO's announcement of a two-year plan aimed at steering the bank back to profitability. Learn about NYCB’s plans.


Marriott Adjusts Profit Outlook (Reuters and Seeking Alpha): Marriott has raised its profit forecast, buoyed by a surge in international travel demand as global room revenue rose 4%. The hotel giant is still facing challenges in the domestic market, where travel has remained sluggish. Read about Marriott’s revised profit forecast and domestic travel issues.


Opportunity Window For Real Estate Investors (CoStar): According to industry analysis, there remains a six-to-nine-month window for real estate investors to capitalize on current market conditions. This period is crucial for making strategic investments before anticipated shifts in the market landscape, potentially affecting profitability. Explore why now is the time to invest.


Biden Administration Aims To Boost Clean Energy Projects (NYT and the White House): The Biden administration is taking steps to expedite the permitting process for clean energy projects, aiming to accelerate the transition to renewable sources. It is seeking to modernize environmental reviews and streamline infrastructure development. Read about the policy changes and further analysis.


Amazon Benefits From Major Investments In Fulfillment (CNBC): Amazon's substantial investments in its fulfillment network are paying off, with 60% of Prime orders now arriving on the same or next day. The company optimized its supply chain by expanding its physical footprint from 2020 to 2022 and then rejiggering it to a regional model last year. Learn more about the retooling.


Starbucks’ Same-Store Sales Slow (NYT and Yahoo Finance): A drop in same-store sales led to a 1.8% decline in Starbucks’ revenue. The company's stock plunged 14% after missing Q2 earnings estimates. Read about Starbucks’ downturn and the impact on its stock.


Playa Bowls Contemplates Sale (Reuters): The owners of Playa Bowls are reportedly exploring options to sell. The popular restaurant chain has more than 200 locations in 22 states and wants to get to 300 this year. Discover more about Playa Bowls’ sale exploration


U.S. Lags In RTO (Morningstar): While workers around the world are returning to office spaces, the trend is noticeably less pronounced in the United States. Read about global RTO trends.

*** 

The First Draft is your first glance each morning at everything happening in the world of commercial real estate — market-rattling deals, consequential personnel shake-ups and major business and policy headlines. We’d love your feedback! Email us at first...@bisnow.com

The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from ChatGPT.

 
 
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