May 17, 2024, Presented By Yardi Kube

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May 17, 2024, 12:03:54 PM5/17/24
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The First Draft
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May 17, 2024

The U.S. and Europe have rightly been focused on domestic economic issues, but lurking in the background all this time, China has been battling a widespread real estate crisis.

In a nutshell, China’s real estate developers have been paralyzed by a major financial squeeze since 2021, when the government instituted measures to rein in the amount of money big real estate companies could borrow. 

In the years since, several large property developers dramatically defaulted on their debt — most notably Evergrande. Scores of construction sites now lay dormant in China, and confidence in real estate as an investment vehicle has shaken its economy and the public to its core.

Once valued at more than twice the size of the U.S. residential real estate market, China’s housing market has been in a death spiral for years.

American and European real estate players should care about this issue because in an increasingly interconnected global economy, what happens in one place can have cascading repercussions elsewhere — especially when we’re talking about the world’s second-largest economy, a major trading partner on both sides of the Atlantic and a superpower rival.

On Friday, the Chinese authorities ramped up their efforts to address the situation with a new batch of “historic” measures to put an end to the crisis. Authorities there are relaxing mortgage rules and will urge local governments — with a $42B fund from the Chinese central bank — to buy unsold homes and transform them into affordable housing (no one in China wants to buy a home right now). 

So, in a week where we sawthe Dow hit the celebratory historic high of 40,000, it’s also heartening to see this morning that the new measures are already sending Chinese property stocks skyward

— Mark F. Bonner, Catie Dixon, Kayla Carmicheal and Jay Rickey

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On Our Radar

  • The Leading Index for the U.S. Economy was updated today and came in below estimates at a 0.6% drop, after a 0.3% decrease in March. This is a signal that the economy — say it with us — will get worse before it gets better. The good news: A recession is unlikely.

  • Severe Storms Damage Houston High-Rises: A powerful storm in Houston has caused significant damage, blowing out windows in several high-rise buildings and escalating concerns about building safety.

  • Conference Season Is Officially BackRECon kicks off Sunday in Las Vegas. Before you head out, familiarize yourself with Power Beacons’ tips for keeping yourself and those around you safe as conference season ramps up. They’ll be at RECon all weekend. 

  • World No. 1 Golfer Arrested? Yes, Scottie Scheffler was arrested this morning in a bizarre scene now trending on social media on his way to Round 2 of the PGA Championship. Separately, the tournament is being delayed after a shuttle bus struck and killed a pedestrian outside Valhalla Golf Club.

  • Today is NASCAR Day: Are you catching the All-Star Open this Sunday? You can watch the races on FS1, MRN and, if you're traveling, SiriusXM has you covered.

  • Kate Hudson's debut solo albumGlorious, and New Kids On The Block's eighthStill Kids, dropped today. What are you spinning today, country-rock from a newcomer or pop from music vets?

Today’s Deep Dive: Bank OZK Has Dominated Construction Lending. Its CEO Has No Plans To Slow Down

Courtesy of Bank OZK

As other banks pull back on construction lending, Bank OZK is looking to surge forward. It did $3B in construction loans last year, far and away the largest provider of that type of financing, often seen as the riskiest debt play in the business.

It takes pride in lending through all phases of the economic and real estate cycle, staying in the game while others back off.

And it makes major profits doing it — a record $171M in Q1.

Bisnow South Florida Reporter Matt Wasielewski spoke to CEO George Gleason about how Bank OZK is growing its real estate business “as big as it can be while maintaining discipline.”

Read the full story here


 

This Morning’s News

Billionaire Presses On With New Projects Despite $1B In Defaults (Bisnow): Charles Cohen’s Cohen Brothers Realty Corp. has applied to demolish an office tower on NYC’s Fifth Avenue and replace it with housing. The company owns 12M SF nationwide, most of which is in distress. Read about Cohen’s attempts to rehabilitate his portfolio.


D.R. Horton Announces Chairman And Founder’s Death (D.R. Horton): D.R. Horton announces the sudden death of its founder and chairman, Don Horton. David Auld steps in as the new executive chairman amid the company's mourning period. Read about the leadership transition.


Serbia Greenlights Kushner-Backed Hotel Venture … Protests Erupt (NYT and AP): Serbia has approved a contract with Jared Kushner for a new hotel complex, signaling a significant investment in the region by the former U.S. president's son-in-law. Local protests are now erupting over the real estate project, with critics wary of the implications for local governance and urban development. Read more about the deal and the ensuing protests.


Scrutiny Over Blackstone REIT’s Asset Valuation (CoStar): As questions arise about how Blackstone REIT values its assets, analysis by CoStar shows “the appraisal data from multiple peer nonlisted REITs indicate Blackstone REIT’s property valuations are in line with falling values across the sector” Explore the valuation concerns.


PIMCO's Real Estate Arm Restructures Major Loan (TRD): Columbia Property Trust, managed by PIMCO, has modified a $1.7B loan following a default, emerging from special servicing “with a lifeline from its lenders and a sobering reappraisal" Details on the loan modification.


‘The Most Interesting Condo Market In The Country’ (Bisnow): Condo and townhome sales in Houston hit their lowest number in a decade last year, but extremely limited supply — there are fewer than 100 new high-rise luxury units available across the city — has developers excited about the possibility of building more. Discover the market drivers


Bank Of America Buy Multifamily Loan Portfolio (BNN Bloomberg): Bank of America is acquiring a $2.9B portfolio of multifamily loans from Washington Federal. Read more.


Rent Declines In Sun Belt (Redfin): Recent reports indicate significant rent reductions in Sun Belt cities, countering previous trends. Rents are climbing fastest in the Midwest. Explore the data.


Bisnow/Jon Banister

Open-Air Retail Flourishes In Suburbs (DLC): DLC’s research highlighting the rapid expansion of open-air retail centers in suburban areas, saying "the four most important metrics for retail real estate – traffic, tenant sales, rent and occupancy – are growing and blowing past their previous all-time highs." Learn about the trend.


REIT Earnings Season Successes (Seeking Alpha): A review of this earnings season shows over 60% of U.S. REITs surpassing FFO-per-share estimates, with a focus on standout performers. Read the full analysis.


California Building Code Tackles Embodied Carbon (Bisnow): Starting July 1, owners of new California buildings larger than 100K SF will need to comply with new rules to reduce embodied carbon. Developers and architects said more policies like it are probably coming. Learn about the new building code.


Cracker Barrel Warns Of Challenges (Morningstar): Cracker Barrel issues a caution about its future performance amid declining diner visits, and slashes dividends to invest in a major overhaul of its outlets. Details on the strategy.


Federal Realty Innovates With Fifth Wall Partnership (Fifth Wall): Federal Realty announces a strategic partnership with Fifth Wall to foster innovation and technology in its portfolio. Read more.


Unsplash/Breno Assis

New Housing Affordability Trends (Moody’s): A Moody's update reveals shifts in housing affordability, highlighting the changing fortunes of regions that were popular during the pandemic. Explore the insights.


Assessing U.S. Apartment Market's Seasonality (RealPage): RealPage examines whether the U.S. apartment market continues to experience a pronounced prime leasing season amid shifting market dynamics. Read the analysis.


Divergent Paths In Department Store Real Estate (Retail Dive): Longtime mall anchors Macy’s and JCPenney are deploying contrasting strategies to manage real estate assets. Discover the strategies.


Nvidia Acquires HQ (CoStar): Chipmaker Nvidia purchased its longtime headquarters for $326M, signaling a commitment to its foundational base. Details here.


Gaming And Leisure Properties Expands (Gaming and Leisure Properties): Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc. has acquired three casino resorts for a total of $105M, expanding its portfolio to 65 properties across 20 states. Read more.


Amazon Launches New Logistics Hub (Geek Wire): In support of its ambitious $10B Project Kuiper, Amazon is opening a new 186K SF logistics facility for its satellite network. Learn about the project.


Home Prices Dip In Florida, Texas (WSJ): The housing markets in Florida and Texas are experiencing price declines amid signs of a broader national shift in home values. Explore the details.

***

The First Draft is produced by Director of Newsletters Jay Rickey, Managing Editor Catie Dixon, Editor-in-Chief Mark F. Bonner and Deputy Newsletter Editor Kayla Carmicheal, with an assist from ChatGPT. We’d love your feedback! Email us at first...@bisnow.com


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