TLDR: No. Old versions of Chrome will be able to run MV2 extensions.
When implementing new user-facing features, we typically put the feature behind a flag so that we can run experiments and control how/when the feature rolls out to users. We're also planning to use this approach when removing support for Manifest V2 extensions. I don't know which versions of Chrome will be affected because (to the best of my knowledge) we haven't yet implemented the flag(s) or other changes. That said, we can make an educated guess.
Before I proceed, I have to say that what I'm about to say is me thinking out loud, not an official announcement from the Chromium team.
Chrome's stable channel is currently on milestone 104. If we look at the
Chromium release schedule, we can see that the feature freeze for milestone 105 occurred a couple days ago but the branch won't be cut for a few more weeks. I think it's unlikely that the relevant changes will land in 105, so I'd guess milestone 106 is the earliest release that might be affected.
The
Manifest V2 support timeline indicates that "Chrome stops running Manifest V2 extensions" in January 2023. According to the Chromium release schedule, milestone 108 will be in stable on Jan 1, 2023 and 109 will reach stable on Jan 10, 2023. As such, I anticipate that the relevant flag(s) for turning down Manifest V2 will ship in 109 at the latest.
Putting these together, it looks like the first stable release that will be affected when Manifest V2 is sunset may be as early as 106 and or as late as 109. Again, though, I have to stress that
this is just me thinking out loud. Keep an eye on the
What's new in Chrome extensions page for updates.
Simeon - @dotproto