Wow, thanks for the quick responses, and that bisect_variations.py is very cool! I entered the bug here:
https://issues.chromium.org/issues/490137353
FYI the result of the bisect is below, which seems correct because the new render widget that was messing us up seems to be hovering over the Omnibox:
Bisecting succeeded: --force-fieldtrials=*OmniboxNext_Desktop/EnabledInlineWithoutChips_V6/ --force-fieldtrial-params=OmniboxNext_Desktop.EnabledInlineWithoutChips_V6:AddContextButtonVariant/inline/Omnibox_AddContextButtonVariant/inline/Omnibox_ShowLensSearchChip/false/Omnibox_ShowRecentTabChip/false/Omnibox_ShowSmartCompose/false/ShowLensSearchChip/false/ShowRecentTabChip/false/ShowSmartCompose/false --enable-features=WebUIOmniboxAimPopup<OmniboxNext_Desktop,WebUIOmniboxPopup<OmniboxNext_Desktop