The Boyd Nation challenge
William Kernen
First, some notes, disclaimers and caveats. As you know, I think
coaches and players win--not the university name on the front of the
uniform. And of the two, the coach is more important in college
baseball because he is responsible for who's there through recruiting
and for motivating 20 yr. olds to become a team and stay focused on a
commitment. To prove this I would point to such under-achieving
programs as UCLA, Florida State, North Carolina (before the current
staff), Fresno State (a FAR better situation, better facility, better
support, better $$$ than any other Cal State University has by a million
miles). San Diego State would jump into it quickly with the right guy
as well. Therefore, in the next 5 years there can be changes that would
make the list below obsolete and I reserve the right to mention a few.
Example: if Lopez leaves Florida, they're off the list unless somebody
great goes there to replace him. Ditto Long Beach and Fullerton.
Reverse example: if Adams retires next month and somebody great gets
that job, UCLA immediately jumps into the top 3. (Incidentally, if that
job does open up, you'll see Andy Lopez with a moving van in front of
his house the next week.) So, having said that, given the current state
of affairs, here is my list of 20 from which you will see the National
Champion in each of the next 5 years: the first 10 are more likely than
the second 10, but this is not ranked 1-20.
Southern California
Stanford
Arizona State
Texas
Florida
LSU
CS Fullerton
North Carolina
Miami
Florida State
Long Beach State
Georgia Tech
Wichita State
Arizona (although not under the current staff)
Baylor
Alabama
Clemson
Auburn (getting new coach next year, so who knows?)
South Carolina (I really don't buy this one, but I'm covering my ass in
case this year is the year)
UCLA (just in case there's a change or they are so talented one year
that they win anyway)
That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
Bill Kernen
jim andrews
says...
> Here's my response, Boyd:
<snip>
> That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
> change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
> If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
> could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
I won't argue with your list, but I'm a bit curious as to why
you think a) Oklahoma and then b) Oklahoma State or Texas A&M
might not make it? I have my questions about OSU's coach over
the long haul, but I think OU and A&M look to be pretty solid
in the near future. (Obviously, A&M hasn't exactly set the
world on fire in the post-season, but I still have this nagging
feeling that they'll get there before Texas does. Dammit.)
jim andrews
Chris Bellomy
: In article <38FDFC19...@bellatlantic.net>, ker...@bellatlantic.net
:> Here's my response, Boyd:
:
: <snip>
:
:> That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
:> change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
:> If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
:> could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
:
: I won't argue with your list, but I'm a bit curious as to why
: you think a) Oklahoma and then b) Oklahoma State or Texas A&M
: might not make it?
I would assume the answer to be coaching.
Of course, this becomes more interesting when he includes Texas and
excludes Florida State, when Augie and Mike Martin have the exact
same coaching philosophy.
cb
Chris Bellomy
: In article <38FDFC19...@bellatlantic.net>, ker...@bellatlantic.net
: says...
:> Here's my response, Boyd:
:
: <snip>
:
:> That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
:> change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
:> If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
:> could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
:
: I won't argue with your list, but I'm a bit curious as to why
: you think a) Oklahoma and then b) Oklahoma State or Texas A&M
: might not make it?
I would assume the answer to be coaching. Dammit. *sigh*
cb
Rick Rollins
(1) Why do you rate UNC over Baylor ? Seems to me the Bears have the better
coaching, and better facilities (at this point) to draw recruits.
(2) San Diego State seems to be making changes up above Jim Dietz' level
that
will bring pressure on him to win. There were a couple of pre-season
articles in
the Union-Tribune to that effect, and quotes by him on the increasing
requirement
to win causing him to rethink his recruiting and development strategies. Do
you
think it will have no effect ? And do you think (as was the suggestion)
that if he
doesn't start winning big in the next couple of years, he'll be gone ?
(3) I haven't been too impressed with the job Danny Hall has done at Georgia
Tech.
Would you put the Jackets at the lower end of the top 20, or the upper end ?
(4) Ray Tanner seems (to me) to be a pretty good coach. Isn't South
Carolina
probably going to be a better team in the next 10 years than you seem to be
implying
by just covering yourself for this season ?
(5) Frankly, I think I'd have Alabama and Jim Wells over Florida and Andy
Lopez.
Andy Lopez is a good coach, but I frankly think they've underachieved since
he's been
at Florida. He did a great job with Pepperdine, but (IMO) not as good at a
bigger
school.
William Kernen wrote in message <38FDFC19...@bellatlantic.net>...
>Here's my response, Boyd:
>
>That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
>change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
>If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
>could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
>
>Bill Kernen
>
>
>
>
>
>
Rick Rollins
Florida
and North Carolina. Florida would drop down to the 11-20 range, and UNC
would
drop out of my list completely, replacing them with Houston.
As for Georgia Tech and Auburn, I have question marks in my head. I think
that
probably Pat M. at Mississippi State has a better shot than Auburn. And, as
I stated,
I'm just not that impressed with Georgia Tech. I think if he stays there,
they'll head for
the same level as South Alabama, Tulane, Nebraska, and lower than Texas A&M
and
Tennessee, for example.
Ceesco
> you think a) Oklahoma and then b) Oklahoma State or Texas A&M
> the long haul, but I think OU and A&M look to be pretty solid
> in the near future.
My take:
A&M - what can you say ...
OU - good recruiting and good coaching need a path laid for them to go far
OSU - with their recruiting and history, I'd like to see someone make an
argument for something other than coaching
PAUL MACCA
>(2) San Diego State seems to be making changes up above Jim Dietz' >level
>that
>will bring pressure on him to win. There were a couple of pre-season
>articles in
>the Union-Tribune to that effect, and quotes by him on the increasing
>requirement
>to win causing him to rethink his recruiting and development >strategies. Do
>you
>think it will have no effect ? And do you think (as was the suggestion)
>that if he
>doesn't start winning big in the next couple of years, he'll be gone ?
Not just to win, but also, to draw more folks to Gwynn Stadium. A budget
crunch earlier this year forced SDSU to drop men's volleyball, a decision that
could not have been an easy one for the administration since that was the
*only* sport in which the Aztecs won a national title in. Even the basketball
coach is facing a "draw fans or else" ultimatum if he wants to keep his job.
Jeffrey Hodgkinson
Georgia
> Tech.
> Would you put the Jackets at the lower end of the top 20, or the upper end
?
Rick dangles bait in front of Jeff's eyes..... ...Jeff lunges.
Danny Hall's predecessor left a long shadow. I wish he would have stayed,
but
he wanted to go to THAT OTHER SCHOOL, so he could win a national
championship. Hall seems to be able to get in a great crowd of players every
year, but they so far have consistently failed to live up to their
potential. This
was especially true last year. The way this year started for Tech, it was
looking
like the same old thing. But the Jackets are now playing a lot better,
mostly due
to better pitching. The jury is still out on the current crop, but they do
have the
potential to win it all. Not every team can say that.
I think the key will be getting into a regional where they don't have to
play
THAT OTHER SCHOOL.
William Kernen
jim andrews wrote:
> In article <38FDFC19...@bellatlantic.net>, ker...@bellatlantic.net
> says...
> > Here's my response, Boyd:
>
> <snip>
>
> > That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
> > change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
> > If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
> > could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
>
> I won't argue with your list, but I'm a bit curious as to why
> you think a) Oklahoma and then b) Oklahoma State or Texas A&M
> might not make it? I have my questions about OSU's coach over
> the long haul, but I think OU and A&M look to be pretty solid
> in the near future. (Obviously, A&M hasn't exactly set the
> world on fire in the post-season, but I still have this nagging
> feeling that they'll get there before Texas does. Dammit.)
>
> jim andrews
My feeling is that if Okey St can't win it with Ward, Holliday won't get it
done either. I always felt they didn't win the big one because they didn't
get quality pitching coaching. The guys not gonna get better by being bumped
up to the head skipper. Okla won it because of the recruiting, coaching and
influence of the assistant (sorry I'm forgetting the name, it was the
ex-Astro pitcher). Cochell couldn't coach his wife in a lamaze class. A&M
would have done it by now if they were going to. There's no cumulative
affect that takes place that the longer you coach the better you get. All
coaches know the Xs and Os as well as the next guy. It's about recruiting,
motivation and the selling of you system to the players. If you don't see a
new guy make a big jump in 2-3 years and really jump in the middle of it
within 5, forget it. Yes, there may be a career year fluke once in a while,
but I'm talking here about perennial contenders.
William Kernen
Rick Rollins wrote:
> A couple of questions for you, Bill:
>
> (1) Why do you rate UNC over Baylor ? Seems to me the Bears have the better
> coaching, and better facilities (at this point) to draw recruits.
>
> (2) San Diego State seems to be making changes up above Jim Dietz' level
> that
> will bring pressure on him to win. There were a couple of pre-season
> articles in
> the Union-Tribune to that effect, and quotes by him on the increasing
> requirement
> to win causing him to rethink his recruiting and development strategies. Do
> you
> think it will have no effect ? And do you think (as was the suggestion)
> that if he
> doesn't start winning big in the next couple of years, he'll be gone ?
>
> (3) I haven't been too impressed with the job Danny Hall has done at Georgia
> Tech.
> Would you put the Jackets at the lower end of the top 20, or the upper end ?
>
> (4) Ray Tanner seems (to me) to be a pretty good coach. Isn't South
> Carolina
> probably going to be a better team in the next 10 years than you seem to be
> implying
> by just covering yourself for this season ?
>
> (5) Frankly, I think I'd have Alabama and Jim Wells over Florida and Andy
> Lopez.
> Andy Lopez is a good coach, but I frankly think they've underachieved since
> he's been
> at Florida. He did a great job with Pepperdine, but (IMO) not as good at a
> bigger
> school.
UNC is just a call that I made because of being impressed with the coach and his
approach. Baylor is pretty impressive too in recent years, so it's not a big
difference or anything.
Deitz is Deitz and he ain't gonna change at this point in his career, believe
me. He's just an eccentric harmless guy who has pretty good teams, occasional
great players and he'll never sniff it.
I think Hall's got a better chance than Tanner, but that's just my opinion.
Guess we'll see in time.
Don't underestimate Lopez. He's one of the best 5 coaches in the country. I've
heard some rumblings from there since he was hired about some differences of
philosophy etc and frankly it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go if the right
job came up.
>
>
> William Kernen wrote in message <38FDFC19...@bellatlantic.net>...
> >Here's my response, Boyd:
> >
> >That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
> >change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
> >If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
> >could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
> >
> >Bill Kernen
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
William Kernen
Thigpen, then I figure God would have to be coaching that deal to get it done.
That probably means they'll win it this year now that I've said that.
David E. Eldredge
You haven't opined on Rice and Wayne Graham. I would be curious as to what
you think of their situation.
BTW, if you ever get to Houston, please check out beautiful Reckling Park.
David
Troy Merklin
William Kernen wrote:
> jim andrews wrote:
>
> > In article <38FDFC19...@bellatlantic.net>, ker...@bellatlantic.net
> > says...
> > > Here's my response, Boyd:
> >
> > <snip>
> >
> > > That's my best shot. Incidentally, one other eventuality that could
> > > change things is if they vote in a change of season to warmer months.
> > > If they did that, somebody who can coach, like Bob Todd at Ohio State,
> > > could really benefit and jump into the club. Thanks for reading.
> >
> > I won't argue with your list, but I'm a bit curious as to why
> > you think a) Oklahoma and then b) Oklahoma State or Texas A&M
> > might not make it? I have my questions about OSU's coach over
> > the long haul, but I think OU and A&M look to be pretty solid
> > in the near future. (Obviously, A&M hasn't exactly set the
> > world on fire in the post-season, but I still have this nagging
> > feeling that they'll get there before Texas does. Dammit.)
> >
> > jim andrews
>
> My feeling is that if Okey St can't win it with Ward, Holliday won't get it
> done either. I always felt they didn't win the big one because they didn't
> get quality pitching coaching. The guys not gonna get better by being bumped
> up to the head skipper.
Most Cowboy fans I know would agree. I was surprised so many former players
pushed for Holliday.
> Okla won it because of the recruiting, coaching and
> influence of the assistant (sorry I'm forgetting the name, it was the
> ex-Astro pitcher).
Verne Ruhle?
> Cochell couldn't coach his wife in a lamaze class. A&M
> would have done it by now if they were going to. There's no cumulative
> affect that takes place that the longer you coach the better you get. All
> coaches know the Xs and Os as well as the next guy. It's about recruiting,
> motivation and the selling of you system to the players. If you don't see a
> new guy make a big jump in 2-3 years and really jump in the middle of it
> within 5, forget it. Yes, there may be a career year fluke once in a while,
> but I'm talking here about perennial contenders.
Troy Merklin
joseph
: Danny Hall's predecessor left a long shadow. I wish he would have stayed,
: but
: he wanted to go to THAT OTHER SCHOOL, so he could win a national
: championship. Hall seems to be able to get in a great crowd of players every
: year, but they so far have consistently failed to live up to their
: potential. This
: was especially true last year. The way this year started for Tech, it was
: looking
: like the same old thing. But the Jackets are now playing a lot better,
: mostly due
: to better pitching. The jury is still out on the current crop, but they do
: have the
: potential to win it all. Not every team can say that.
: I think the key will be getting into a regional where they don't have to
: play
: THAT OTHER SCHOOL.
not to mention THAT OTHER SCHOOL kicked our asses in the Gator bowl. and
THAT OTHER SCHOOL's basketball coach didn't want to come to georgia
tech, and THAT OTHER SCHOOL.... i hate THAT OTHER SCHOOL!
-joseph
CL68
Does winning two ACC tourneys, winning a regional last year, and showing this
year that they can survive losing two All-Americans and still be a top 10
caliber ball club not even merit a top 20 listing?
Chris
William Kernen
CL68 wrote:
While you're right that some good things seem to be happening there, I refer you
back to my comments regarding the cumulative affect of coaching for a while. If
Greer was going to be able to pull off a National Championship, it would have
either happened already or have gotten real real close. I think they are a
quality team and program, but we are after all talking about being the last guy
standing in Omaha. I'd be shocked if they can do that.
William Kernen
at CS Fullerton) together.
Jeffrey Hodgkinson
No alcohol abuse here. Of course, sometimes the dosages on my medication
don't come out right. But that rarely happens. WHHHEEEEE!!!!!!!!!
> not to mention THAT OTHER SCHOOL kicked our asses in the Gator bowl. and
> THAT OTHER SCHOOL's basketball coach didn't want to come to georgia
> tech, and THAT OTHER SCHOOL.... i hate THAT OTHER SCHOOL!
Tech will get a chance to exorcise that demon soon. Wouldn't it be great if
we
stuffed them, and kept them from hosting a regional as a result? We can only
dream. Too bad the game is being played at THAT OTHER SCHOOL.