Ancient off-by-order-of-magnitude error

[Bruce Tindall]

We've all heard various ULs, many of them true, about off-by-one
or off-by-order-of-magnitude errors blamed on Modern Technology (tm),
such as the 1960(L) U.S. Census keypunch error that resulted in
reports of 12,000 Native Americans under the age of 3 engaged in
the practice of agriculture in Boston, or whatever.

It turns out that Modern Technology isn't necessary for such errors,
nor does the possession of Mod.Tech. necessarily an immunization
against them.

According to a paper presented by Dr. Martin Heijdra of Princeton
at the 1997 Assoc. for Asian Studies conference, a Chinese document
from the early Ming dynasty (14th century C.E.) stated that
such-and-such amount of land in a particular area was taxable.
But the figure was off by an order of magnitude. No one noticed,
apparently, for centuries, that the amount listed was greater than
the entire area of the place in question.

This number has been ramified by scholars into all sorts of
erroneous theories about tax rates, economic failures, etc.,
for centuries. In the 1940s, finally, some Japanese researchers
published their discovery of the error, but, according to Heijdra,
even today the incorrect number is still quoted.

Sorry I don't have particulars on the document, the specific
location, or the number in question -- this is from notes I
scribbled during the oral presentation of the paper -- but the
paper will doubtless be published and/or available from the
author, who is a noted scholar of Chinese economic history.

--
Bruce Tindall tin...@panix.com
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