FIBS Dice
Bob Ebbeler
that I felt to be ridiculous, and not representative of what one would
expect to see in the real world based on my own experience over a 20 year
period. It wasnt to bitch about too many doubles per se. Certain people have
gone to great lengths to analyze bits and pieces of this string of games to
convince me that each individual element can be explained, is random, or
represents fair distribution. I guess Ill take another crack at it by asking
the question this way, again using that string of games I cited:
IN YOUR ACTUAL OVER THE BOARD EXPERIENCE, DO YOU RECALL LOSING 4 CONSECUTIVE
RACES DESPITE 50+ PIP LEADS TO OPPONENTS WHO ALL WON THE SAME WAY, 5 DOUBLES
IN THE LAST 6 ROLLS ? IN 20 YEARS OF PLAY I DONT RECALL A STRING LIKE THAT.
I'm willing to concede that the 5 doubles were well within statistical
expectations, but is it a LOGICAL thing to expect to lose 4 games in a row
in such a ludicrous and identical manner ? The only place Ive seen it happen
is FIBS.
HOW MANY GAMES IN YOUR OVER THE BOARD PLAY BEGAN WITH YOU OR AN OPPONENT
ROLLING 3 DOUBLES THE FIRST 4 ROLLS, FINISHING WITH 5 OF THE LAST 6,
FINISHING AN 18 ROLL GAME WITH A TOTAL OF 9 DOUBLES ? AGAIN, IN 20 YEARS OF
PLAY, THE ONLY PLACE IVE SEEN A GAME LIKE THAT IS FIBS. Incidentally, if one
were to lump this game with the previous 4, it would be 5 games in a row
where a player finished with 5 doubles in 6 rolls.
IN YOUR OVER THE BOARD EXPERIENCE DO YOU RECALL ANY 2 HOUR STRETCH WHERE
OPPONENTS ROLLED 5 CONSECUTIVE DOUBLES 3 TIMES ? EVER RECALL STARTING A GAME
WITH 5 CONSECUTIVE DOUBLES ? The only place Ive seen it happen is FIBS.
Actually, I wonder how long one would have to sit and roll dice just to roll
5 consecutive doubles 3 different times. Theres one for Paul to work on.
My point wasnt and isnt to piss and moan about TOO MANY DOUBLES. My
observation, not a complaint because FIBS is free so none of this nonsense
has cost me a penny, is that too many situations seem too out of sync with
what I expect to see based on 20 years of play.
IN 20 YEARS IVE WON THE 15TH CHECKER GAME TWICE. I WON 4 ON FIBS IN A 3
MONTH PERIOD. IN 20 YEARS IVE SEEN A ROLL RESULT IN A 35 NUMBER SHOT ONCE.
IVE SEEN IT ON FIBS TWICE IN A 2 WEEK PERIOD..........BOTH MISSED, WHICH IN
ITSELF IS PRETTY LUDICROUS.
Anyway, take your best shots, Im sure I havent changed your minds, but that
was never my goal. I wrote my initial post asking Muratk to share any
statiscal data he gathered as a result of his FIBS experiment. Most of the
above examples have provided me with great amusement, and, once again, the
price is certainly right.
NIHILIST
Gregg Cattanach
Zox
Bob Ebbeler <rebb...@bellsouth.net> wrote in message
news:a4zk3.22678$iA1.1...@news4.mia...
| Recently, in response to another post, I related a string of games on FIBS
| that I felt to be ridiculous, and not representative , etc, etc, etc, etc/
Daniel Murphy
<rebb...@bellsouth.net> wrote:
>Recently, in response to another post, I related a string of games on FIBS
>that I felt to be ridiculous, and not representative of what one would
>expect to see in the real world based on my own experience over a 20 year
>period.
Like ...
>... LOSING 4 CONSECUTIVE RACES DESPITE 50+ PIP LEADS TO OPPONENTS WHO ALL
>WON THE SAME WAY, 5 DOUBLES IN THE LAST 6 ROLLS ?
>... YOU OR AN OPPONENT ROLLING 3 DOUBLES THE FIRST 4 ROLLS, FINISHING WITH 5
>OF THE LAST 6, FINISHING AN 18 ROLL GAME WITH A TOTAL OF 9 DOUBLES ?
>... IN YOUR OVER THE BOARD EXPERIENCE DO YOU RECALL ANY 2 HOUR STRETCH WHERE
>OPPONENTS ROLLED 5 CONSECUTIVE DOUBLES 3 TIMES ?
>... EVER RECALL STARTING A GAME WITH 5 CONSECUTIVE DOUBLES ? The only place Ive seen it happen is FIBS.
>... My observation, not a complaint because FIBS is free so none of this nonsense
>has cost me a penny, is that too many situations seem too out of sync with
>what I expect to see based on 20 years of play.
>
>IN 20 YEARS IVE WON THE 15TH CHECKER GAME TWICE. I WON 4 ON FIBS IN A 3
>MONTH PERIOD. IN 20 YEARS IVE SEEN A ROLL RESULT IN A 35 NUMBER SHOT ONCE.
>IVE SEEN IT ON FIBS TWICE IN A 2 WEEK PERIOD..........BOTH MISSED, WHICH IN
>ITSELF IS PRETTY LUDICROUS.
Bob, I've never gone home after a "real life" session and wrote down
all the amazing sequences of dice I experienced. But a few things
stick in memory, some sharp, some not.
I know I've won exactly four real life games by rolling exactly 66,
66, 66, 44.
I know I once rolled 8 real life doubles in a row.
I recall that I and my opponents have rolled the same number 4, 5, 6
times in a row at the start of the game so often that it's not at all
remarkable.
I know I have won real life games by hitting the 15th checker far more
often than twice (although only one occasion do I remember clearly,
and that because my absent-minded opponent was holding the cube the
whole time).
I know I've seen a real life player miss a 35 to 1 shot by rolling 11
-- the only number that missed -- for the third time in a row. I know
I myself have missed a real life 35 to 1 shot at least twice (silly
me, thinking I was "too good" to redouble!). ;)
I know I've experienced more than one 2- or more-hour real life
session in which I simply could NOT win a race.
I know that it seems remarkable when something unusual happens -- like
missing a 35-1 shot -- when both times occur within a two-week period.
But if those are the only two times it happens, then you could also
have said that this unusual thing happened twice in, say, four years
of online time -- which doesn't sound very remarkable.
Finally, like you, Bob, I have experienced many more things which seem
unusual in 5 years of online play than in 14 years of real life
backgammon. But I also know that all the games I've played in 14 years
of real life backgammon total nothing close to the number I've played
online. Couldn't almost all of us who play on and off line say the
same? I would not be surprised, for example, if I have played more
matches online in the last 6 weeks than I have in the last two years
in real life. So it doesn't seem so remarkable to me that more unusual
things seem to happen more often online than off.
________________________________________________
Daniel Murphy www.cityraccoon.com/
Humlebæk Backgammon Klub www.hbgk.dk/
Raccoon on FIBS www.fibs.com/
Raccoon on GamesGrid too
Daniel Murphy
<rebb...@bellsouth.net> wrote:
[a bunch of unusual dice sequences that he had experienced on FIBS
that he felt was "unreal" including]
>IN 20 YEARS IVE WON THE 15TH CHECKER GAME TWICE. I WON 4 ON FIBS IN A 3
>MONTH PERIOD.
How unusual is this? Dunno. I've mentioned already that I've done it
and had it done to me more than twice in rea life, but here's 2-3 more
datapoints:
(1) According to rollouts by Backgammon Magazine editor Harald
Johanni, IF you have a closed board with well distributed spares when
you hit that last checker, you should win about 3% of the time.
(2) And Bob got an LOL out of this when I mentioned to him on FIBS:
This past weekend at the Danish Doubles Championship tournament
(that's "real life"), I won a game in my first match after hitting the
last checker. And I'll remember this one for a while, because the cube
was in the middle for the entire game (forgetful opponent!).
(3) And there's someone else who might find Bob's experience unusual:
"One thing I always remember from those games [about 14-15
years ago ... in Redondo Beach/Long Beach ... at Annabelle's,
where they used to have Sunday bg tournaments]. I had lost against an
older Armenian guy. He had hit my very last piece to go on to win the
game and the match with it, something that hadn't/hasn't happened
before or after that. At the time I was in my mid-twenties at the most
and he had perhaps taught some "kid" a memorable lesson that
in bg, if it can happen then it can happen..." - Murat Kalinyaprak
^^ ^^ ^^ ^^ ^^^ ^^^^^^ ^^^^ ^^ ^^^ ^^^^^^
Words to remember!
Bob Ebbeler
the wake of my most ludicrous FIBS loss ever; I had 1 checker off, remaining
14 on my 1 and 3 points, opponent had 2 checkers on my 2 point, I lead 31-86
in the race; I LOSE RACE to 6s followed by 6s followed by 2 more doubles.
NIHILIST
Daniel Murphy <rac...@cityraccoon.com> wrote in message
news:379dcfcc...@news.inet.tele.dk...
Rodrigo Andrade
points? If 13 were on the 3 point and 1 on the one-point, you would need
some pretty good rolls to bear off safely.
2. Where were your opponent's remaining checkers, besides the 2 men
anchoring on your 2-point? Where they all in his home board? Had he started
bearing off?
I suspect your loss might not have been ludicrous at all...
--
RODRIGO
===========================================================
"All religions of a spiritual nature are inventions of man. He has
created an entire system of gods with nothing more than his carnal brain.
Just because he has an ego and cannot accept it, he has had to externalize
it into some great spiritual device he calls 'God.'"
- The Satanic Bible
Anton Szandor LaVey
Bob Ebbeler
point board. I looked up LUDICROUS in the dictionary, the definition was
LOSING A RACE WHILE HOLDING A 55 PIP LEAD IN THAT POSITION.
NIHILIST
Rodrigo Andrade <gammonut@_R_E_M_O_V_E_worldnet.att.net> wrote in message
news:7nncjb$sbf$1...@bgtnsc02.worldnet.att.net...