US will remain superpower, claims CIA

[Night23]

seems every country is predicted to crash & burn... except US.

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US will remain superpower, claims CIA

Times of India

WASHINGTON: The US will remain a superpower with its higher fertility
rate and continued immigration which it can absorb, while its current
"key rivals" Russia and China, with their unhealthy and less educated
population, will fare badly in the next 25 years, the Central
Intelligence Agency said in a report.

Europe and Japan also "stand to lose global power and influence" because
of an ageing population and lower birth rate and no tradition of
large-scale immigration like the US and Canada, the CIA said, weighing
the "strategic implications of demographic trends for US allies" in a
100-page report.

Drawing an unflattering portrait of Russia, it said the country has an
"unhealthy population; it is born unhealthy, it grows unhealthy, and it
dies prematurely. Declining fertility and rising mortality, especially
among working age males, have reduced the population from 148.7 million
people in 1992 to 144.9 million in November 2000."

By contrast, the US working age population is expected to rise by 33 per
cent over the next 50 years.

As for China, the CIA said, it will not only have an increasing elderly
population but it is likely to be much less educated and hence less
productive.

In case of Japan, it said, "Without radical changes, the very existence
of Japan as a major economic power may indeed be at stake. By 2010, the
world could see a Japan that will have completed its second decade of
chronic underperformance compared to other advanced industrial
democracies."

All this, the CIA suggests, will increase the global responsibilities of
the US.

According to US census projections, Russia's population is expected to
further contract in the next five decades to 118 million people, the
level it achieved in 1960.

The Russian far east, said the CIA, will require imported labour from
neighbouring Asian countries, notably China. Such migration is already
creating social tensions that are easily exploited by politicians and a
greatly expanded foreign presence in the far east could create social,
political and foreign policy tensions, it said.

In countries with an ageing population, the problem of a smaller working
population will be worsened by medical advances which promise life spans
of 150 years or more by 2050, the CIA said.

China's ageing population will complicate its ability to sustain robust
economic growth because unfunded pension obligations and massive health
care costs will add to a debt stock that is steadily rising, it said.

For Canada, it said the country is expected to gain in working age
population by about 17 per cent, aided by net migration rates that are
double those of the US and a projected rise in its total fertility rate
from 1.6 to 1.9 per cent. (PTI)
( PTI )

[Evan Roberts]

Much of this contains some truth; the U.S. government has its own
weaknesses, however.

--
--Evan Roberts
--homepage: http://members.home.net/tibetmyth/

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