Blacks: Jeb will pay for 2000
Getting a Bush out of the Governor's Mansion will make up for a Bush
in the White House, they say.
By ADAM C. SMITH, Times Political Editor
JACKSONVILLE --
Behind the grated windows and concrete walls of north Jacksonville's
Denmark restaurant, signs warn that no one with their pants hanging
below their buttocks will be served.
The line of customers stretches to the door, past images of the Rev.
Martin Luther King Jr. and Frederick Douglass on the wall.
Some 16 months after roughly 16,000 African-American votes for
president in Duval County were tossed out as invalid, nobody talks
politics here.
The lunchtime chitchat among patrons munching collard greens and fried
fish bounces from the Jacksonville Jaguars to office gossip to
Denmark's legendary beef stew.
The contested 2000 election doesn't come up.
But nobody says it's forgotten.
"Saying African-Americans are still angry about that election is a big
understatement," Susan Phillips, a 30-something school system employee
said while waiting for her fried chicken.
"People may not talk about it like they used to, and a lot people
liked what the president was doing after Sept. 11.
But nobody has forgotten, and most people around here think Jeb Bush
had a lot to do with giving that election to his brother.
"I think people are more motivated to vote than ever before."
As much as the Sept. 11 attacks muted public grousing over the Florida
recount, the controversy is anything but over.
Democratic leaders are working to channel resentment over the
presidential election into a big Democratic turnout this fall as they
try to unseat Gov. Bush.
Among the state's roughly 1-million black voters, that resentment
simmers just below the surface.
Dozens of African-American voters from Jacksonville to the Tampa Bay
area to Miami indicated in interviews that President Bush's disputed
victory in 2000 remains a powerful incentive to go to the polls this
November to try push the president's younger brother out of the
Governor's Mansion.
Few are paying much attention to the Democratic primary, but most are
united in their opposition to Jeb Bush.
"When your country is attacked, you rally behind the president," said
Tim Walker, a music student at Edward Waters College in Jacksonville.
"But that doesn't change what happened in 2000. There's no doubt I'm
going to vote, and I'm going to vote against Jeb Bush. It may never be
proven, but I'll always have in my heart that he had something to do
with stealing that election."
_____________________________________________________
Looks like ole Jebby's dead meat.
Harry
And how many blacks in Florida ever <I>didn't</i> vote Democratic, anyhow -
even before 2000, even before Jeb Bush ended quotas in Florida state
universities?
The problem blacks have is that - by voting so near-100% Democratic no
matter what - the Democrats take them for granted and the Republicans write
them off, both with impunity.
<a href="http://www.alamanceind.com/nation/nation_35.html">Jackboot Janet's
girlfriend</a>
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
<B>Dissident news - plus immigration, gun rights, nationwide weather
<I><A HREF="http://www.alamanceind.com">ALAMANCE INDEPENDENT:
official newspaper of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy</A></b></i>
>From The St. Petersburg Times, 5/5/02:
>http://www.stpetersburgtimes.com/2002/05/05/State/Blacks__Jeb_will_pay_.shtm
>l
>
>
>Blacks: Jeb will pay for 2000
xxxxxxxxx
>The lunchtime chitchat among patrons munching collard greens and fried
>fish
xxxxx
>said while waiting for her fried chicken.
xxxxx
Jim,
This is a dire situation that you describe. Does this mean that all
three Afros that voted for Jeb last state election are going to bolt
the Republican party and change their vote?
Zorro
> This is a dire situation that you describe. Does this mean that all
> three Afros that voted for Jeb last state election are going to bolt
> the Republican party and change their vote?
> Zorro
No, the other way around. Blacks were prevented from voting in
various manners, so theu're making sure next time around that
racists don`t keep them from voting. This will make the difference.
Remember, this is a part of the country where Whites use
to lynch uppity Blacks just to amuse themselves. Now the
uppity Blacks have the vote, and although they have been
tricked out of their right to vote, they will have their day.
Earl
> That is, of course, nonsense. how about some specifics, Earl. I will
> be glad to refute every one.
Michael Moore`s book "Stupid White Men" deals with this in Chapter
one, entitled "A Very American Coup".
Part of that chapter deals with Katherine Harris paying 4 million dollars to
Data Technologies to go through the voter`s list and removing anyone
"suspected" of being a convicted felon. No proof necessary, just kick
the people off the list and if the innocent fail to realize it on voting
day, tough luck. One hit list was provided from Texas records of people
moving to Florida. Anyway, Moore claims "thousands" of Black citizens
were illegally kept from voting but this operation. Database had strong
Republican ties, and you can guess the orientation of their cleaning
up the voters list. Apparently false lists were also provided, this
is Moore`s charge.
I am sure you can "refute" these charges, Jeffy no-name, but
this thing is still cooking along. But Moore gives sufficient details
and his book, being a best seller, will convince a lot of people
that something did not work well in Florida. Anyway, are newly
elected President in France, known as the "escro" should bet along
well with Bush his American election stealing counterpart.
It could even make Blacks angry, although one wonders if they have
any emotional energy left to become more angry.
Anyway, this member of the truth squad is still at work.
Earl
Gee, sounds just like what happens to countless middle-class
European-American American fathers daily. If you name your kid "Jr.," the odds
are overwhelming that credit bureaus will intermix your credit files. God help
you if one of you pays on time and the other is a deadbeat. (My neighbor even
got dunned by the city water department because of such an error.) You may
have loan denials for undeserved bad credit.
Same if you have a very-common name. The credit bureaus snarl it up because
few merchants submitting reports put down the person's Social Security number.
John
Apply for a car loan today - and you may be denied because your son (if you
named him "Jr.") is a deadbeat and a credit bureau mixed up your file with his.
It happens all the time. I saw it daily when actively practicing law
collecting for car dealers.
> John wrote:
>>The databse company hired by K Harris >even protested that results were
>>tentative, but Harris ignored >them--overruled her Republican contractor >that
> she was acting illegally, in other >words.
>
> Apply for a car loan today - and you may be denied because your son (if you
> named him "Jr.") is a deadbeat and a credit bureau mixed up your file with
his.
> It happens all the time. I saw it daily when actively practicing law
> collecting for car dealers.
>
Notice that GLC did not deal with the facts of the case but dodged. Bogey
even more and El Castrated has not spoken, or his voice it too squeeky
to come through across the waters.
So true or not true? Was there wholesale disenfranchising of black votes,
persons who should have voted but were denied? That is the issue, not
GLC's run around diversions to get the subject line off on non-dangerous
territory.
Earl
Just like the claim of some 400 people massacred in Janin, no proof. Only vague
words.
Only the claim of wholesale disenfranchising of black votes, no proof. Only vague
words.
> That tune has played itself out long ago. It wasn't true then and it
> isn't true now. Find new material to bloviate about Longwind.
You never deal with the subject of a posting anyway, but then you
don`t have the mental candle power to do it.
What wasn`t true? Where is your evidence for that, details?
Earl
and replied:
>Notice that GLC did not deal with the >facts of the case but dodged.
It's no "dodge." Americans - in America - regularly even get
<I>arrested</i> in mistaken-identity snafus; they regularly make the
"mainstream" dailies in the town they happen in.
Were it not for the alleged racial angle and the close results in the
Florida election, nobody would even care about what was a routine procedure.
>>Notice that GLC did not deal with the >facts of the case but dodged.
>
> It's no "dodge." Americans - in America - regularly even get
> <I>arrested</i> in mistaken-identity snafus; they regularly make the
> "mainstream" dailies in the town they happen in.
> Were it not for the alleged racial angle and the close results in the
> Florida election, nobody would even care about what was a routine procedure.
>
Still a dodge, the specific charge had to do with disenfrancishing black
voters automatically, for political profit. The company which
did it was named, how much they were paid for their hit job and
who ordered it.
So not dealing with that issue is a dodge. If the charges are not true,
get the references and post them. You and Bogey are masters of the
dodge. I personally think you can`t help it, a critical personal weakness,
and expect it to continue.
Earl
----------
Dans l'article <5tcjdu0sm0quch35l...@4ax.com>, bogey
<boge...@rr.com> a écrit :
>
> I'm still waiting for your list of criminologists who have ripped
> apart Mr. Lott's book. You keep ignoring your accusation.
> Are you a liar ?
I have never seen your request for this information.
I have posted this information several times. First, the issue is
dealt with in debt by Philip CooK and Jens Ludwig in their
recent book, "Gun Violence, the real cost". They are both
known criminologists. Note again that Lott is not, he is an
economist.
Reanalysis of Lott's work was done by Dan Black of Syracuse
University and Daniel Nagin of Carnegie and published in 1998
Journal of Legal Studies, 27, (1) 209-219. That work
showed that Lott did an incomplete statistical study, and
and fact renalysis showed that more guns do not make
less crime. Lott and several other economists who venture
into criminology use econometric methods, usually other
peoples, most of them do not program themselves. Whatever,
the technique is difficult and can often lead to false correlations
for marginal variables. It can pick up the major ones and give
them a "number", their relative importance. If important
factors are left out, the whole study is an example of
junk science. I have not seen any update by Lott which
challenges either Cook and Ludwig's book analysis or
Black and Nagin`s peer reviewed journal article.
You will notice that Lott is not longer associated with Yale and
was never a member of the Law School Faculty, he now has
a "job" with a right wing think tank. Lott has not published
a great deal in the criminology area, either. You gun nuts
loved his book but you guys never look deeply into things.
Finally, to answer the last question
> Are you a liar ?
That is your problem, son, you are the master of disinformation on
this NG. I am a member of the truth squad, and my posting
here demonstrates my dedication to the truth, not self-deluding
lies that you deal with daily.
Basically, Bogey, I gottcha.
Earl
What is more important you did not criticism of of Lott`s work, just
tried to attack the authors. So you dodged once again.
What support is there for Lott`s work by people working in this
area?
Anyway, Bogey, I rarely read your stuff because it is junk. I did not
run into your comments until just before this posting, so for
a guy who lies constantly, has no name, has modified other people`s
postings, you are not in a position to call others liars.
Earl
Earl
Both Cook and Ludwig are economists. Both have Ph.D.'s in economics,
just like Lott.
>
> Reanalysis of Lott's work was done by Dan Black of Syracuse
> University and Daniel Nagin of Carnegie and published in 1998
> Journal of Legal Studies, 27, (1) 209-219. That work
> showed that Lott did an incomplete statistical study, and
> and fact renalysis showed that more guns do not make
> less crime. Lott and several other economists who venture
> into criminology use econometric methods, usually other
> peoples, most of them do not program themselves. Whatever,
> the technique is difficult and can often lead to false correlations
> for marginal variables. It can pick up the major ones and give
> them a "number", their relative importance. If important
> factors are left out, the whole study is an example of
> junk science. I have not seen any update by Lott which
> challenges either Cook and Ludwig's book analysis or
> Black and Nagin`s peer reviewed journal article.
>
A lot of academics have looked at this question. The range of
estimates are from no effect to large reductions in violent crime.
The Cook and Ludwig estimate of the cost of guns is based upon one
survey question in one survey. People were asked how much they would
pay to reduce gun violence by 30 percent. That number was then
multiplied by 3.33 and then multiplied by the number of people in the
country to get their estimated cost of guns. Is that serious
research?
> You will notice that Lott is not longer associated with Yale and
> was never a member of the Law School Faculty, he now has
> a "job" with a right wing think tank. Lott has not published
> a great deal in the criminology area, either. You gun nuts
> loved his book but you guys never look deeply into things.
I had Lott for classes when he was on the faculty at the Wharton
Business School at the University of Pennsylvania. I know that he
left there to go teach at the University of Chicago. He has probably
published more research in refereed journals than almost anyone his
age.
As for your claim of wholesale disenfranchising of black votes, you have no proof.
So, it didn't happen.
Just like the claim of some 400 people massacred in Janin, no proof. It didn't
happen.
On Thu, 09 May 2002 09:04:41 +0000, "Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr>
wrote:
>Dans l'article <5tcjdu0sm0quch35l...@4ax.com>, bogey
><boge...@rr.com> a écrit :
>
>
>>
>> I'm still waiting for your list of criminologists who have ripped
>> apart Mr. Lott's book. You keep ignoring your accusation.
>> Are you a liar ?
>
>
>I have never seen your request for this information.
>
Liar, you have been ducking the issue for days.
>
>I have posted this information several times. First, the issue is
>dealt with in debt by Philip CooK and Jens Ludwig in their
>recent book, "Gun Violence, the real cost". They are both
>known criminologists. Note again that Lott is not, he is an
>economist.
Biography for: Philip J. Cook
Philip Cook joined the Economics faculty in 1973 after completing
his economics Ph.D. at the University of California, Berkeley. He
holds a joint appointment in Public Policy Studies (now the Terry
Sanford Institute), of which he served as Director from 1985 to 1989
and from 1996 to 1999, and in the Department of Economics. His
on-going research projects include such topics as the costs and
benefits of alcohol control measures, the effects of abortion
legalization and subsidy, and how markets for handguns influence
crime. His most recent book (co-authored with Jens Ludwig) is Gun
Violence: The Real Costs, (Oxford University Press, 2000).Sure looks like an economist to me, where is his criminologist
credentials ? Blowing smoke again ?Biography for :Jens Ludwig:
Andrew W. Mellon Fellow, Economic Studies
Education:
Ph.D. Economics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 1994
M.A. Economics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, 1992.
B.A. Economics, (Minor in Religion), Rutgers College, New Brunswick,
NJ, 1990More lies from the Blowhard, these men are economists, NOT
criminologists.Blowhard wrote:
>More of Lott`s nonsense, like his book. This book has been thoroughly
>ripped apart by professaionl criminolgist, which Lott is not. He is an
>economist by training.Please provide information on professional criminologist who ripped
apart Mr. Lott's book, as originally requested. No charlatans
please.
>Reanalysis of Lott's work was done by Dan Black of Syracuse
>University and Daniel Nagin of Carnegie and published in 1998
>Journal of Legal Studies, 27, (1) 209-219.
Dan A. Black Biography:
Dan Black
Chair and Professor of Economics
Professor Black received his Ph.D. in Economics from Purdue
University in 1983. He is currently Professor of Economics and
Senior Research Associate of the Center for Policy Research at
Syracuse University and a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Mellon
University Regional Census Data Center.
http://www-cpr.maxwell.syr.edu/faculty/black/research.htmDaniel S. Nagin:
EDUCATION
CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, Graduate School of Industrial
Administration, B.S. (Administrative and Managerial Sciences) and
M.S. (Industrial Administration),1971CARNEGIE MELLON UNIVERSITY, School of Urban and Public Affairs,
Ph.D. (Urban and Public Affairs), 1976.PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE
RESEARCH COORDINATOR, National Consortium for Violence Research,
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. 1996 to presentPROFESSOR OF MANAGEMENT, H. J. Heinz III School of Public Policy and
Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA. 1990 to
present.ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF MANAGEMENT, School of Urban and Public
Affairs, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA., September 1986
to 1990.DEPUTY SECRETARY FOR FISCAL POLICY AND ANALYSIS, Pennsylvania
Department of Revenue, 1981 to August 1986. Directed the activities
of the Office of Policy Evaluation and Analysis, Office of Systems
and Operational Analysis, Bureau of Computer Services and Bureau of
Data Reduction.ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC POLICY AND OPERATIONS
RESEARCH, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Carnegie Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, Pa., 1979 to 1981.SENIOR ASSOCIATE, Cambridge Systematics, Cambridge, Massachusetts,
1978-1979.ASSISTANT PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC POLICY, Institute of Policy Sciences
and Public Affairs, Duke University, 1976-1978.SYSTEMS ANALYST, New York Academy of Medicine, New York, New York,
1972-1973More smoke from the Blowhard, where are the Criminologist
credentials ? There are none.
>That work showed that Lott did an incomplete statistical study,
>and and fact renalysis showed that more guns do not make
>less crime. Lott and several other economists who venture
>into criminology use econometric methods, usually other
>peoples, most of them do not program themselves. Whatever,
>the technique is difficult and can often lead to false correlations
>for marginal variables. It can pick up the major ones and give
>them a "number", their relative importance. If important
>factors are left out, the whole study is an example of
>junk science. I have not seen any update by Lott which
>challenges either Cook and Ludwig's book analysis or
>Black and Nagin`s peer reviewed journal article.
INNUENDO.
>You will notice that Lott is not longer associated with Yale and
>was never a member of the Law School Faculty, he now has
>a "job" with a right wing think tank. Lott has not published
>a great deal in the criminology area, either. You gun nuts
>loved his book but you guys never look deeply into things.
>
>Finally, to answer the last question
>
>> Are you a liar ?
Answer to above, yes.
>
>That is your problem, son, you are the master of disinformation on
>this NG. I am a member of the truth squad, and my posting
>here demonstrates my dedication to the truth, not self-deluding
>lies that you deal with daily.
>
>Basically, Bogey, I gottcha.
>
>Earl
You are a blowhard, Earl, plain and simple.
Nailed him to the wall!
On Thu, 09 May 2002 09:04:41 +0000, "Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr>
wrote:
>Dans l'article <5tcjdu0sm0quch35l...@4ax.com>, bogey
><boge...@rr.com> a écrit :
>
Biography for: Philip J. Cook
Philip Cook joined the Economics faculty in 1973 after completing
his economics Ph.D. at the University of California, Berkeley. He
holds a joint appointment in Public Policy Studies (now the Terry
Sanford Institute), of which he served as Director from 1985 to 1989
and from 1996 to 1999, and in the Department of Economics. His
on-going research projects include such topics as the costs and
benefits of alcohol control measures, the effects of abortion
legalization and subsidy, and how markets for handguns influence
crime. His most recent book (co-authored with Jens Ludwig) is Gun
Violence: The Real Costs, (Oxford University Press, 2000).
Sure looks like an economist to me, where is his criminologist
credentials ? Blowing smoke again ?
****
The problem with you Bogey is you don`t understand what the academic world
is about. One is defined by what one works on, by what Journals one publishes in and the titles of
one`s papers.
Note first, the Lott has, to my knowledge, only published one article in the criminology
area in a peer review journal. Cook has been doing research on firearms and violence
for 25 years! What is that, "economics"? I got my doctorate in synthetic organic
chemistry but I am known as a quantum chemist. Why? I changed course in my career.
Cook can be classed as an economist, sociologist, and criminologist depending on what
he publishes on. He obviously is a first rate scholar. Lott is not. Lott never got a
permanent academic job, and is off into a think tank now. Academically, Lotts publication record
is poor, he writes for the WSJ and that kind of thing, HE is a political writer. That is
why idiots like you think he is great.
Now lets look at a FEW of THE MANY peer reviewed article in the criminology
area by Cook and Ludwig. Many of these are not economic studies.
"State Programs for Screening Handgun buyers" published in 1981
in the Annals of the American Academy of of Political and Social Science
"The Effect of Gun Availability on Robbery and Robbery Murder: A
Cross section of 50 cities", 1979 Policy Studies Review Annual
"The case of the missing victims, Gunshot Woundings in National
Crime Survey", 1985, Journal of Quantiative Criminology"
"Robbery Violence", 1987, Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology
"The Medical Costs of Gunshot Injuries in the United States", 1999,
Journal of the American Medical Association.
The list goes on and on, and Lott`s list stops at one article? There is no comparison.
Lott has not published enough to be classed in the economic criminology area.
One does get classed as a baseball player by playing in one game, one has to play
at least a season or two.
Worse, Lott`s famous thesis, "more guns less crime" (which,by the way, only
was research on concealed weapons) has not received any support
from other researchers; I have read a comment that even Kleck thought Lott`s
statistical study was faulted. "Exceptional Claims require Exceptional proof"
is an old scientific adage, and nobody has backed Lott up, in fact his work
has been faulted in the peer reviewed literature, that was done by Black and
Nagin in their 1998 article in the Journal of Legal Studies, "Do 'Right to Carry"
Laws Reduce Journal of Legal Studies". This article was criticsl of Lott
and Mustard`s 1997 article in the same review entitled "Crime, Deterrence
and Right to Carry Concealed Handguns". You will notice that the book's
title, "more guns, less crime" was such that it would attract buyers from
the American gun nut crowd, who hardly read in any case and would not
be attracted by the scholarly title. My own experience as a scholarly
author says that Lott and Mustard would have been asked by the journal`s
editor to comment on an article which challenges their own work.
It does not appear that they answered the criticism of their work by Black and
Nagin, which means they were caught short. When your pants are down you
head for cover, silence. I can say it never happened to me, none of my papers
were never challenged. In fact, Lott`s poor performance
with regard to academic standards would disqualify him from a post
at a major American University. Charles Murray is in the same position
after "The Bell Curve". These kinds of people gravitate to right wing
think tanks. I am curious about just how Lott was financed as a senior
research scholar at Yale? It smacks of outside money from some
conservative organization.
Well dodo there you have it. Whatever, the bottom line is Lott`s thesis,
it has not been backed up. He has been twisting in the wind for several
years now.
Earl
Earl
"
> On Fri, 10 May 2002 14:05:16 +0000, "Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr>
> The problem with you Earl is that you have been caught lying again..
> BWaaaaHaaaaaHaaaaaHaaaaaaaa!
Nailed him to the wall! Again!
http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Lott_v_Teret/Lott_Vita.html
"Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr> wrote in message news:<3cdbb6fd$0$11627$79c1...@nan-newsreader-03.noos.net>...
> --
> "Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr> wrote in message
> news:<3cda1f0c$0$19510$79c1...@nan-newsreader-03.noos.net>...
>> --
>>
>>
>
>
> Both Cook and Ludwig are economists. Both have Ph.D.'s in economics,
> just like Lott.
Look at the publications and in which journal they are published.
I have a Ph.D, in synthetic organic chemistry, but most of my life
I have been working in quantum mechanics. Most of my publications
are in that area, I was hired into academic posts as a theoretical chemist.
In academia, one is classed by one`s area of research.
> The Cook and Ludwig estimate of the cost of guns is based upon one
> survey question in one survey.
??? They publish in a lot of areas, Cook in particulary has a publication
record with regard to firearms dating from the late 70s.
> People were asked how much they would
> pay to reduce gun violence by 30 percent. That number was then
> multiplied by 3.33 and then multiplied by the number of people in the
> country to get their estimated cost of guns. Is that serious
> research?
How did Kleck get is famous 2.5 million gun use in self-defense? Exactly
the same thing but he did it on a 1-2% poll result. I know
that work well, I don`t know what you are referring to in the above
statement. But yes, Cook`s work is generally of high quality.
> I had Lott for classes when he was on the faculty at the Wharton
> Business School at the University of Pennsylvania.
One of his older web sites gives
Professional Experience Senior research scholar, School of Law, Yale
University,1999-2001
Law and economics fellow, School of Law, University of Chicago, 1995-1999
Visiting assistant professor, Graduate School of Business,
University of Chicago 1994-1995
Visiting fellow, Cornell University Law School, 1994
Assistant professor, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania,
1991-1995
Visiting assistant professor, Graduate School of Management, UCLA, 1989-1991
Chief economist, U.S. Sentencing Commission, 1988-1989
Visiting assistant professor, Department of Economics, Rice University,
1987-1988
Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University, 1986-1987
Visiting assistant professor, Department of Economics, Texas A&M University,
1984-1986
OR, he has been around. The real question is why did he not get a top
job in a top institution. I think it is because he is much more political
than academic. Writing a book with a title like "More Guns, Less Crime"
stamped him in the academic world. He shot himself in the foot.
>He has probably published more research in refereed journals than
> almost anyone his age.
I have not found a list of his professional publications but did post
a list of what he has written otherwise. I have found only one peer
reviewed article on the gun issue. If you can correct this please
do so.
By the way, thanks for reminding me of the Jeff Miron's ``Violence, Guns,
and Drugs: A Cross-Country Analysis" at http://econ.bu.edu/miron/
I had downloaded this a long time ago and even forgot what I did with it.
The drug part of the article is fairly good, why he tried to slip the gun
thing in is beyond me, but I think he was influence by Lott, whom he thanks.
That part of his study is really weak and he probably screwed up the
publication of his paper, referees are going to make the same analysis
that I will in a future posting.
The conclusion he made generally was one the Global Crime report
had said, that there gun control legislation does not have an effect
on homicide rates. But his method of attempting to quantify gun
control legislation is poor. There is not enough information on
gun ownership rates, legal and illegal in enough countries to
quantify that part of the problem. And quantifying gun control
legislation is difficult because of the issue, "is it enforced".
The Russian Federation has a total abolution of handguns, yet
they have a lot of murders, organized crime is a serious problem.
We have a lawyer from California visiting us now and she just
attended a talk by some American Law professor, expert in
Russian law who said that Russian laws are generally written
better than American. The only problem is that they have no
tradition of obeying them. So that part of Miron`s study
has problems. He also, at the end, only said that there was a
"hint" that more gun legislation yielded more homicides.
On the other hand the evidence is clear internationally that
actual gun ownership is criminogenic, gun control legislation
does little globally to reduce the effect of guns in society
except in ordered societies.
Miron gave a number of caveats about his own paper.
This is a standard professional gambit when one knows
one`s paper will be subject to referee criticism. I have
written and published over 100 articles in my field
I used self-defensive self-criticism to cutoff referee's
comments.
The drug part of his paper shows that anti-drug laws
are part or maybe all of the problem. We pretty much
suspect that prohibition in the 1920s was criminogenic.
The war on drugs is a failure but along it goes. On the other
hand his paper, while seeming to show this has its modeling
weaknesses and I will post separately on that later.
Earl
Kleck's survey work is much more than Cook and Ludwig's. Kleck's
entire survey asks multiple questions to double check the basic point.
More important he has surveyed a lot of other polling to see whether
his results are consistent with them. Cook and Ludwig's use of one
question in one survey is not serious. There are problems with the
type of survey that Kleck uses, but surely people are much more likely
to correctly answer whether they have used a gun defensively
(especially after they have already told the pollster that they were
threatened with a crime), then someone giving a meaningful answer to
how much they would pay to reduce gun violence by 30 percent. Does it
then make sense to multiply that number by 3.333? Would the amount
that you would pay to reduce gun violence by 100 percent by 3.333
times greater than the amount that you would pay to reduce it by 30
percent? Usually economists talk about dimishing returns.
Çook and Ludwig's work here simply isn't serious.
"Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr> wrote in message news:<3cdd08ff$0$4443$79c1...@nan-newsreader-01.noos.net>...
> You could add Cook's and Ludwig's articles together and Lott as more
> articles published and they are in higher quality journals.
As I said, I could not find a list of Lott`s professional articles and I
challenged you to produce a list. Hell, you took a course from
him, come up with a lists.
His web site does not have them. The site I am referring to
is
http://www.aei.org/scholars/lott.htm
The part of this site which deals with his articles only says:
Selected Articles Chicago Tribune
Los Angeles Times
New York Times
USA Today
Wall Street Journal
American Economic Review
Journal of Political Economy
**
Nothing was clickable,
He also is proud of his public appearence since he gives a list of
Selected TV and Radio ABC News, World News Tonight
CBS News, The Early Show
CNN, Talkback Live
Fox News Channel, Special report with Brit Hume, The O'Reilly Factor, Your
World with Neil Cavuto
MSNBC, Hardball with Chris Matthews, The News with Brian Williams
NBC News, Nightly News, The Today Show
PBS, The Newshour with Jim Lehrer
***
I doubt that Cook has made as many political appearences.
On other sites which one can get by doing a "goodle" on "John Lott, Jr" one
gets a list of his newspaper or popular media writings.
***
IN CONTRAST , Cook gives a list of his CURRENT online papers which can be
downloaded. (http://www.pubpol.duke.edu/people/faculty/cook/)
1. "After the Epidemic: Recent Trends in Youth Violence in the United
States"
2. "Comprehensive Firearms Tracing: Strategic and Investigative Uses of New
Data on Firearms Markets"
3. "Gun Control"
4. Litigation as Regulation: The Case of Firearms
5. "Smart" Guns: A Technological Fix for Regulating the Secondary Market
6. "State and Local Prevalence of Firearms Ownership: Measurement,
Structure, and Trends"
I downloaded item one, very interesting.
Other publications are also available.
Cook`s web site is more professional and better organized than Lott`s.
Moreover Cook co-publishes with a number of other known researchers,
Lott appears to be a loner, and certainly is an outsider. He has the image
of a brilliant person who spun out of self-control and headed to the media
scene because he could not hold his own in academia. Note, this is my
world, I know the signs.
So, again, if you have a list of Lott`s academic publiations please produce
it. I
Earl
http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Lott_v_Teret/Lott_Vita.html
This is four years old, but his publication list is clearly superior
to Cook's both in terms of the quality of the journals and in terms of
the number of publications. The contest isn't even close. How many
publications does Cook have in the American Economic Review of the
Journal of Political Economy or the Journal of Law and Economics?
You can also down load some of Lott's papers at:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?cfid=782549&cftoken=58627783&per_id=16317
If you want to look at Ludwig's, you can go to:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=48881
Cook's research is at:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=46831
I have seen Cook and Ludwig on the television news shows. Here is
something that I found:
CBS News Transcripts
SHOW: CBS EVENING NEWS (6:30 PM ET)
July 5, 2000, Wednesday
TYPE: Newscast
LENGTH: 489 words
HEADLINE: MOST AMERICAN GUNS ARE OWNED BY MIDDLE-CLASS WHITE MEN WHO
ARE POLITICALLY SUPPORTIVE OF THEIR GUN RIGHTS
ANCHORS: DAN RATHER
REPORTERS: JIM STEWART
BODY:
DAN RATHER, anchor:
While Hispanic leaders hope to gain increased political influence as
their numbers grow, other voting blocs and special interests build
political muscle through their dedication to a single cause. One such
group, gun owners, supported by gun and ammunition manufacturers.
Tonight, CBS' Jim Stewart begins a two-part Eye on America series on
guns and the minority of Americans who own them. Mr. JAMES McCOSKEY
(Gun Owner): Now this is a double rifle.
JIM STEWART reporting:
In theory, there are enough guns in America for every adult to own at
least one; but they don't, because most guns, it turns out, are
actually owned by just a small group of Americans, men like James
McCoskey.
Mr. McCOSKEY: As a matter of fact, I killed a 175-pound boar with that
in Germany.
STEWART: McCoskey owns close to 100 firearms.
Mr. McCOSKEY: I'm not really a collector. I guess you'd have to say
I'm an accumulator and a user of guns.
STEWART: And like many people who own many guns, he carries his
passion to the voting booth.
Mr. McCOSKEY: You can criticize people for maybe having a tendency to
be single-issue oriented, but this is one of those single issues.
STEWART: Poll after poll show that more and more Americans are in
favor of stiffer guns laws, yet little has happened. One reason for
that, researchers believe, is that because for the shrinking number of
Americans who do own a firearm, this is not just a big issue, this is
the only issue. In fact, a recent study found that the number of
gun-owners in America has never been more concentrated than it is
right now in a small number of white, middle-class, rural men.
Mr. JENS LUDWIG (Georgetown University): We find that about 10 percent
of all of the adults in the United States own about 80 percent of all
the guns.
STEWART: Ten percent own 80 percent?
Mr. LUDWIG: Ten percent of all adults own about 150 million guns.
That's about 80 percent of the total guns in circulation in America
right now.
STEWART: And gun dealers like Don Davis confirm it. New buyers, he
says, are the exception.
Mr. DON DAVIS (Gun Store Owner): I would say that 60, 70, 80 percent
of the guns we'll sell today are to people that have other guns. We
know customers that's got a thousand guns.
STEWART: And what they spend on their guns, they also gladly spend on
the politicians who support them.
Ms. McCOSKEY: I think people who probably have never donated a nickel
to a political campaign in their life would dig in there and lay it
out. I really do.
STEWART: And they really have. Gun lobbyists and gun makers have
already poured more than $ 15 million into this fall's elections. In
Washington, this is Jim Stewart for Eye on America.
RATHER: Tomorrow, in part two of this hard news investigative series,
a look at some popular proposals for changing gun laws and how they
could backfire.
(Announcements)
"Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr> wrote in message news:<3cde18b3$0$9365$79c1...@nan-newsreader-03.noos.net>...
> "Donna Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr> allegedly wrote:
>
> >
> >
> >Dans l'article <20020507190410...@mb-ck.aol.com>,
> >glc...@aol.com (GLC1173) a écrit :
> >
> >
> >> John wrote:
> >>>The databse company hired by K Harris >even protested that results were
> >>>tentative, but Harris ignored >them--overruled her Republican contractor >that
> >> she was acting illegally, in other >words.
> >>
> >> Apply for a car loan today - and you may be denied because your son (if you
> >> named him "Jr.") is a deadbeat and a credit bureau mixed up your file with
> >his.
> >> It happens all the time. I saw it daily when actively practicing law
> >> collecting for car dealers.
> >>
> >
> >Notice that GLC did not deal with the facts of the case but dodged. Bogey
> >even more and El Castrated has not spoken, or his voice it too squeeky
> >to come through across the waters.
>
> Sorry, Your Pompousness, I was out of town for a few days.
>
> I certainly expected more from you, Earl. Maybe roadblocks designed to
> frighten off Black voters, or ballots too complex for the Black mind
> to comprehend, but not this felon thing again.
>
> Here is a complete and thorough refutation.
>
> Another Lie Liberals Told About Florida's Secretary of State
> Katherine Harris Not Responsible for Felon Purges
> By Timothy P. Carney
>
> Despite the race-baiting claims of leading liberals, including the
> Rev. Jesse Jackson, Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris was
> not responsible for her state’s botched attempt to purge felons from
> its voting rolls.
>
> The purge was conducted pursuant to a 1998 Florida law that required
> the state to hire a private firm to compile a database of felons and
> dead people on the states’ voting lists. The contract for this
> database was not signed by Harris but by a the elections director, now
> a Democrat, who served under a previous secretary of state. The purge
> law required only that local county governments–not the secretary of
> state–remove appropriate names from the voting rolls. And the counties
> themselves, not the secretary of state’s office, were responsible for
> ensuring that the lists provided to them were accurate.
>
> But on December 11, outside the U.S. Supreme Court, the Rev. Jackson
> told Human Events in a tape-recorded interview, "Eight thousand
> people, mostly African-Americans were sent notices that they were
> felons by Mrs. Harris–a private firm from Texas. None of them were."
> (Click here for the related story.)
>
> A month later, after the Congressional Black Caucus tried to block
> certification of Florida’s Electoral College vote on the House floor,
> Rep. Maxine Waters (D.-Calif.) claimed that errors in the purge were
> not accidental. "Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris paid a
> private firm, ChoicePoint, $4 million to cleanse the voting rolls,"
> said Waters, "and the firm used the state’s felon-ban to exclude 8,000
> voters who had never committed a felony. ChoicePoint is a Republican
> outfit." (Click here for the full text of her comments.)
>
> Contract Predated Harris
>
> Some in the media have made similar claims, including the Tampa
> Tribune, which reported on March 2: "Under Secretary of State
> Katherine Harris, a private company was hired to purge convicted
> felons from voter registration lists prior to the recent elections
> but, to the shock of civil rights observers and election officials,
> the firm also purged legal voters from the lists."
>
> To test this claim, Human Events reviewed relevant documents and spoke
> with state and county officials involved in the purges as well with
> executives at ChoicePoint. While mistakes were made at all levels of
> the process, their nature and magnitude have been grossly distorted,
> and Harris was not in any way responsible for them.
>
> In its January 1 issue, the New Republic reported that the
> list-producing firm had been hired "months before the election." In
> fact, the law mandating the purge (Florida Statute 98.0975) was passed
> in the wake of a Miami mayoral race in which a judge found felons and
> dead people to have voted. The law stated: "By Aug. 15, 1998, the
> division [of elections] shall provide to each county supervisor of
> elections a list containing the name, address, date of birth" of every
> registered voter in that county who, "(a) Is deceased; (b) Has been
> convicted of a felony and has not had his or her civil rights
> restored."
>
> The law also reads: "[I]n order to meet its obligations under this
> section, the division shall annually contract with a private entity."
> Accordingly, in 1998, Florida Division of Elections Director Ethel
> Baxter, now a registered Democrat, hired Database Technologies (DBT),
> which compiled a list that was distributed to the 67 county election
> chiefs. (DBT merged with ChoicePoint after compiling the 2000 list,
> and adopted ChoicePoint’s name.)
>
> County officials were bound by law to verify this list and then to
> remove the names of verified felons and deceased voters.
>
> Many critics of the purge have repeated the claim made by Salon.com in
> December 4 in a story headlined: "Secretary of State Katherine Harris
> hired a firm to vet the rolls for felons, but that may have wrongly
> kept thousands, particularly blacks, from casting ballots." The
> website posted a correction 15 days later, noting that Katherine
> Harris was not the secretary of state when the contract was signed
> with DBT.
>
> Current Florida Elections Division Director Clay Roberts told Human
> Events that Harris "had no role" in the process.
>
> Similarly, Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections David Leahy said that he
> had no contact with Harris in carrying out his purge.
>
> ChoicePoint Vice President James Lee said that Harris was briefed only
> on the contract that her office inherited. Harris’s office did not
> return a phone call on the matter.
>
> So the basic facts are these: Harris did not sign the contract with
> the company that created the purge list. She did not carry out the
> purges. And the county officials who did carry out the purges–many of
> them Democrats–were supposed to verify the lists before using them.
>
> Also dubious is Rep. Waters’ claim that the list company was a
> "Republican outfit." This also seems to stem from the Salon.com story.
> Two ChoicePoint officials Salon.com used to make this point were Rick
> Rozar and Ken Langone. Rozar has indeed given hundreds of thousands of
> dollars to Republicans and is affiliated with ChoicePoint–but he had
> no affiliation with DBT. In fact, he founded a competitor to DBT–CDB
> Infotek–which was absorbed by ChoicePoint in 1999, a year before
> ChoicePoint merged with DBT, and a year after Baxter signed the
> state’s contract with DBT.
>
> Langone, who is on the ChoicePoint board of directors, did serve on
> DBT’s board before the merger. Salon.com reported that he worked on
> New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani’s campaign, but did not report that
> Langone’s political contributions included $1,000 to Bill Clinton’s
> 1996 reelection campaign, and $2,000 each to Democratic Senators Chuck
> Schumer (N.Y.), Bill Nelson (Fla.), Bob Graham (Fla.).
>
> Jackson and others said the list firm was from Texas, but DBT is a
> Florida company and ChoicePoint is a Georgia company.
>
> It has also been claimed that blacks were particularly "targeted" by
> the purge. Roberts, Leahy other county election supervisors, and a
> ChoicePoint executive all say they saw no evidence of racism in the
> lists.
>
> Some critics made much of a statement by Hillsborough County Election
> Supervisor Pam Iorio that 54% of those on her list were black,
> although only 11.6% of her county is black. But the ratio of blacks to
> other ethnic groups on the list closely matched the ratio of blacks to
> other ethnic groups among the state’s felons. Forty-nine per cent of
> felons in Hillsborough prisons are black, and 54.8% of felons in state
> custody are black.
>
> In Miami-Dade, about 65% of those on the felon list were black,
> according to Leahy, but in that county, too, the list roughly matched
> the local demographic breakdown of verified felons.
>
> Another unproven charge is that voters were erroneously
> disenfranchised by the list. The list contained many names of
> individuals who were not felons, and some counties acted to remove
> these voters from the list. Some individuals have come forward
> describing "horror stories" of having to swear under oath that they
> were not felons in order to vote.
>
> But no one has yet identified a single eligible voter who was actually
> and finally kept from voting by the purge.
>
> On January 15, Rep. Corrine Brown (D.-Fla.) said on CNN, "I found
> other people, two or three young men that was there–they–when they
> went to their precinct, they were told they couldn’t vote because they
> was felons and they had never been arrested." But she did not name
> them on the air, and she did not return a phone call requesting
> further information.
>
> Nonetheless, according to nearly all involved, Florida’s felon purge
> was deeply flawed. An initial list of alleged felons, which was
> produced in mid-1998 by a firm different from DBT, was so error-ridden
> many counties refused to use it.
>
> The list that was later produced by DBT included nonfelons because
> Florida’s central voter file does not include Social Security numbers
> that could be used to differentiate between two people who have the
> same name. Thus, some voters who coincidentally had the same name as a
> felon were wrongly included on the purge list.
>
> Because of these problems, many county election supervisors never
> carried out the purges, letting felons continue to vote rather than
> risk wrongly purging legal voters. The Florida legislature is now
> reviewing the purge statute, and the elections division has not
> renewed DBT’s contract.
> http://www.humanevents.org/articles/03-12-01/carney.html
>
> >So true or not true? Was there wholesale disenfranchising of black votes,
> >persons who should have voted but were denied? That is the issue, not
> >GLC's run around diversions to get the subject line off on non-dangerous
> >territory.
> >
> >Earl
This is a keeper.
I am not sure what your other point was. He has obviously published a
lot of papers on crime. Rather than speculating about whether he has
published the same piece multiple times, why don't you see whether
that was the case. My impression is that he is just very prolific and
your attempt to explain it away is not very useful.
"Earl Evleth" <dev...@noos.fr> wrote in message news:<3cdfac19$0$6103$79c1...@nan-newsreader-01.noos.net>...
> Dans l'article <23fa92fe.02051...@posting.google.com>,
> mary...@aol.com (Mary Rosh) a écrit :
>
>
> > Here again for the third time is a list of his publications:
> >
> > http://www.daviddfriedman.com/Lott v Teret/Lott Vita.html
> http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?cfidx2549&cftokenX62778
> 3&per id
> --