Scoop #205 - November 11, 1998

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Scoop®

_Your Inside View to the Strategies and Activities of the Conservative
Movement in Washington

Issue 205 * November 11, 1998

The National Center for Public Policy Research
Amy Ridenour, President
300 Eye Street N.E., Suite 3 * Washington, D.C. 20002
(202) 543-1286 * Fax (202) 543-4779
E-Mail: [2]sc...@nationalcenter.org
Web: [3]http://www.nationalcenter.org_



_Contents
_
* House Leadership Changes Discussed
* Dick Armey for Majority Leader
* Steve Largent for Majority Leader
* Largent for Majority Leader, Pt 2
* Armey for Majority Leader, Pt 2
* Linder v. Davis for NRCC Chief
* Why Neumann Lost in Wisconsin
* GOPAC Analyzes Voter Turnout


_Activities at the November 11 Strategy Lunch chaired by Paul Weyrich
of the Free Congress Foundation and sponsored by Coalitions for
America (202/546-3003).
_
_House Leadership Changes Discussed_

Paul Weyrich of the Free Congress Foundation introduced a discussion
of the House Republican leadership changes. Calling outgoing Speaker
Newt Gingrich's speech at the post-election GOPAC Conference "a class
act," Weyrich said of Livingston: "[He] needs to be given a chance. I
do believe he's an honest individual." Weyrich announced that he
prefers that Rep. Steve Largent (R-OK) win the Majority Leader's race
between current Majority Leader Dick Armey (R-TX), Rep. Jennifer Dunn
(R-WA) and Largent, saying "Largent has the potential to be a better
leader. You cannot discount that we live in a media age... I am not
against Dick Armey. I am passionately for Steve Largent." Contact Paul
Weyrich at 202/546-3000 or [4]dir...@fcref.org
([5]http://www.freecongress.org).

_Dick Armey for Majority Leader_

Steve Moore of the Cato Institute delivered a presentation favoring
the re-election of Rep. Dick Armey as House Majority Leader. Moore
began by reminding participants that he has been an outspoken critic
of the House leadership in recent years, but he pointed out that Dick
Armey has been very effective in keeping economic and social
conservatives working together. After briefing reviewing Armey's
record on economic issues, which, he said, is so well-known it
scarcely needs review, he reminded participants that Dick Armey
personally took on a critical yet uphill battle on behalf of home
schoolers a few years ago and won. Moore said that he believes that,
from a limited government perspective, "Bob Livingston is going to be
a disaster as Speaker... I do not believe he is a fiscal
conservative." Moore stressed that conservatives need someone with the
"gravitas" to stand up to Livingston, and said Armey is the man for
that job. Contact Steve Moore at 202/842-0200 or [6]smo...@cato.org
([7]http://www.cato.org).

_Steve Largent for Majority Leader_

Terry Allen, chief of staff for Rep. Steve Largent, delivered a
presentation favoring the election of Steve Largent for Majority
Leader. Allen focused on the vote tally, saying "Largent is way ahead
of Armey and Largent and Armey are way ahead of Jennifer Dunn -- so
much so, we are hearing that another moderate may get in, because
Jennifer Dunn isn't getting much traction... We are seeing moderates
in the conference come to us, because they like Mr. Largent
personally." Allen added: "[Largent's] a communicator. And he's
effective... So we're building a strong coalition of moderates and
conservatives." Allen concluded his comments by pointing out "Steve
Largent is the only Member of Congress with his picture on a Wheaties
box." Contact Terry Allen at 202/225-2211.

_Largent for Majority Leader, Pt 2_

Rep. Tom Coburn (R-OK) delivered a presentation on behalf of the
election of Steve Largent, saying, in part: "I love Dick Armey. He's a
very dear friend of mine. But when it came to standing up to Newt
Gingrich, he failed us... This is a media world. Of the entire
leadership, the only one who can be positive [in the media] is
Largent. Second, we need someone who will stand up to the
leadership... Third, Steve Largent will stand on courage and
principles. The last two years the leadership has cowered in fear...
Without someone of Largent's character, courage and media positives,
we'll lose... I'm worried about our conference if this election
doesn't go right." Contact Rep. Coburn via Mike Schwartz at
202/225-2701.

_Armey for Majority Leader, Pt 2_

Morton Blackwell of the Leadership Institute (and a Republican
National Committeeman representing Virginia), spoke about his hope
that Dick Armey is re-elected as House Majority Leader. "I really hope
we re-elect Dick Armey. He has bled for many things that are important
to me and my organization... When he got flack [for doing so], he kept
[supporting us]... I think you have to keep in context the
relationship the Majority Leader and the Speaker had running up to the
1994 election to explain the relationship between Newt Gingrich and
Dick Armey... Knowing what we now know about the Armey-Livingston
relationship, no one can reasonably suggest that the relationship
between Armey and Livingston will be what it was between Armey and
Gingrich." Blackwell also praised Largent, but reiterated that he
believes that Dick Armey should be re-elected. Contact Morton
Blackwell at 703/247-2000 ([8]http://www.lead-inst.org).

_Linder v. Davis for NRCC Chief_

Paul Weyrich of the Free Congress Foundation introduced a discussion
about who should head the Republican National Congressional Committee,
the incumbent, Rep. John Linder (R-GA), or Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA).
Although Davis is more moderate philosophically, Weyrich said, he
personally thinks Davis might be better. Morton Blackwell of the
Leadership Institute added that he, too, supports Davis, believing
that there would be a greater emphasis on people-oriented campaign
techniques (like training, voter ID, precinct organization, turnout
activities, etc.) if Davis were to be elected. Davis understands,
Blackwell said, that campaigns are about more than raising money and
spending it on advertising -- activities that, he said, not
coincidentally permit campaign consultants to keep 15% of
expenditures. Weyrich added that the Republicans, generally speaking,
won the "air war" (commercials and similar activities) in 1998 while
the Democrats won the "ground war" (voter identification and turnout).
"You can be 7% ahead and if the other side knows where their voters
are and turns them out, you lose." Amy Myers of the Family Research
Council then reported that she had just attended a presentation by
Rep. John Linder which convinced her that Linder realizes the
importance of doing better to win the "ground war." Andrea Sheldon of
the Traditional Values Coalition added some concerns about Davis,
saying that unions gave Davis $48,000 in campaign contributions. She
also said that he doubts his word, saying that Davis (who chairs the
District of Columbia subcommittee) promised some black pastors in the
District that he would look into the issue of sex clubs in the
District having non-profit (charitable, tax-exempt) tax status under
the law. Davis promised to look into it, she said, but for three years
has not. Contact Paul Weyrich at 202/546-3000, Morton Blackwell at
703/247-2000, Amy Myers at 202/393-2100 ([9]http://www.frc.org) and
Andrea Sheldon at 202/547-8570.

_Why Neumann Lost in Wisconsin_

Major Andy Messing (USA-Ret.) of the National Defense Council
Foundation reminded participants of the importance of motivating
military-oriented voters, which the GOP did not do in 1998. Messing
said this is why, in part, Republican Mark Neumann lost the Wisconsin
Senate race against left-wing Democrat Russ Feingold. Paul Weyrich of
the Free Congress Foundation gave an additional reason: 50,000 new
voters showed up in the Second Congressional District to vote for the
lesbian candidate, he said, who was a Democrat. Neumann had expected
to lose the Second Congressional District by 22,000 votes. Instead, he
lost it by 78,000. Contact Andy Messing at 703/836-3443 or
[10]ND...@erols.com ([11]http://www.ndcf.org); Paul Weyrich at
202/546-3000.

_GOPAC Analyzes Voter Turnout_

Johnny Morgan, Field Director for GOPAC, gave a brief presentation on
voter turnout in 1998. He focussed on two issues: black turnout and
union turnout. On the former, Morgan reported that in some districts,
particularly in Maryland 7, in South Carolina 6 and in three Illinois
districts, the black vote was higher than expected. In Maryland 7
(Baltimore City), in fact, the black turnout was 97% of what it was in
1996, a presidential election year. In other places, particularly
Florida, Michigan, and most of Texas, he said, the black turnout was
not higher than expected. High union turnout, Morgan said, was also a
factor in the GOP not doing as well as expected. Among the GOP's
problems in the past election, Morgan said: the GOP's handling of the
scandal (as a whole); the budget deal; President Clinton's willingness
to say or so anything and the weak GOP message. Contact Johnny Morgan
at 202/484-2282 ([12]http://www.gopac.com).


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Copyright 1998 The National Center for Public Policy Research.
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