Who's Number One? Java, VB, or C++?
Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)
Three market research firms give widely divergent and contradictory answers
http://www.fawcette.com/online_eprods/jfawcette2002_01_09/
pnichols
"Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)"
<doug.olson@99~pocket-technologies.com> wrote in message
news:3c3d1ca1_1@dnews...
>
> Three market research firms give widely divergent and contradictory
answers
>
> http://www.fawcette.com/online_eprods/jfawcette2002_01_09/
>
qualifies one as a programmer. If you take in all non pro programmers to
mean "programmers", I would have no doubt VB is the top dog. If you look at
professional (that is employed as developers) Java and C++ are tops.
In MS only shops, VB would be tops, while in primarily Unix shops, C/C++
would be tops. In a Mainframe environment, Cobol would be tops. In a
heterogeneous environment, Java would be the top dog.
Enployment wise, search any site and most of the time, you will find C/C++
is the highest in demand, followed by Java, with VB occupying third place.
Many might point out that the availability of jobs has nothing to do with
the use of a language, and there is some measure of veracity in that
statement. However, when you view the overall job market availability, and
you see the same conclusion being reached numerically when searching all of
these major sites (Dice, Monster, Headhunters, etc) and the numbers reflect
the same, it is a good bet that professionally, C/C++ is still the number
one in terms of demand, followed by Java, followed by VB.
I do expect VB's dominance to continue to diminish as it has been for some
time now. The fact that MS is not pushing VB as the ultimate NET tool, will
invariably mean that MS only shops will inevitably be making the C#
conversion. Not overnight, but for the long haul it is the only sensible
thing to do.
Those shops not exclusively MS, will continue down the Java path, and all
will be using C/C++ for the low level stuff in both the Windows and Unix
based shops (includes Linux and all variants). Mainframes will continue to
use Cobol for some time to come, albeit many are also adopting Java, and
creating new applications with Java and integrating it with their legacy
Cobol systems. I have worked for and with some firms doing the latter, and
they are quite pleased with this combination.
Alessandro Federici
<doug.olson@99~pocket-technologies.com> wrote in message
news:3c3d1ca1_1@dnews...
>
answers
As Paul said, depends who you ask to.
Ask Sun and they will tell you compilers should be written in Java, ask MS
and they will tell you the shuttle is driven by a VB application <G>
From my experience and by talking to different people from all around the
planet, this is what's mostly used (world wide):
1) VB
2) C++
3) Java
4) others and in there Delphi probabily between the most utilized
This obviosuly doesn't take in account Cobol and other languages like that
but let's say the usual suspects.
My (wild) take for the future (thinking about new projects, not maintenance)
is:
1) C#
2) Java
3) VB
4) C++
How much C# will be on top in my prediction depends also on the Mono project
as well. If that thing takes off, I think the distance with the others will
be very large.
The main reason for which I see C# on top is because of (#1) the tremendous
hype and marketing around it. That is even more than what Java has today
after all these years and that influences most than anything else IMHO the
people that at the end of the day make decisions.
(#2) Having a framework that allows you to finally *easily* do efficient
client side plus server side and web development was never really a reality
before with the exception of Delphi which (very) unfortnately didn't have
the appropriate
hype-backup.
Java will stay strong on the server side in big corporations but its
adoption in middle/small markets will never become predominant as it is not
today.
I don't see VB moving forward that much. Even if .Net is language agnostic,
C# is and will be the flag language for it. I belive many current VB
programmers will move to C#.
C++ will become less of a first class player because it's more complex than
the others.
My 2c.
--
Alessandro Federici
System Architect
Borland Certified Consultant
http://www.msdelphi.com (home of the *new* DSOAP Toolkit 2.1)
al...@msdelphi.com (primary)
king...@hotmail.com (secondary)
Microsoft Messenger: king...@hotmail.com
ICQ: 27692720
Randy Minder
I think you can get a good feel for what's number 1 by looking at the job
boards. I just did a search on Monster and found the following:
Delphi: 150
.NET 199
VB 981 - 1790 (Depending on whether you searched for "VB" or "Visual
Basic". Some of these may have been VB.NET)
C++ 1307
Java 3017 (JBuilder had 24)
I personally think over time you will see plain VB decrease and .NET (C# and
VB.NET) increase substantially. There is no question the future is with
.NET and/or Java.
Randy
"Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)"
<doug.olson@99~pocket-technologies.com> wrote in message
news:3c3d1ca1_1@dnews...
>
Rosimildo daSilva
> > Of course it would depend upon who you ask and what they are doing, and
taking
> the Microsoft Certification tests. They actually had a person in charge
of
> training people and one guy that passed (I forget the courses as they have
> changed) the VB tests and he had never written a single application in VB.
> This obviously got the consulting company more money for the consultant
> because he was MS Certified. (I stopped taking those tests after I saw
> this) The guy was no dummy, but he wasn't a real developer either.
I bet you that these people make more money than "real" developers. <g>
Rosimildo.
Rosimildo daSilva
>
> Three market research firms give widely divergent and contradictory
answers
>
> http://www.fawcette.com/online_eprods/jfawcette2002_01_09/
"According to Mark Driver, research director at Gartner, "Today, Visual
Basic is the world's most popular programming language. At Gartner we
estimate that nearly half the world's professional programmers leverage VB
(approximately 3 million VB programmers). Out of a total worldwide market of
7.5 million developers, Gartner sees the market as divided this way:
a.. 45% of developers worldwide use VB (~3 million)
b.. 18% use Java (1.2 million)
c.. 25% use C++ (~1.75 million)
d.. 1% use C#
But by 2006, the picture changes significantly, in Gartner's view:
a.. 40% of developers worldwide will use VB
b.. 40% will use Java
c.. 15% will use C++
d.. 25% will use C# "
LOL !!! -- these numbers give 120%. This "typo" is intended. It should
read:
a.. 40% of developers worldwide will use VB
b.. 40% will use Java
c.. 15% will use C++
d.. 5% will use C# "
Rosimildo.
Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)
what
> qualifies one as a programmer. If you take in all non pro programmers to
> mean "programmers", I would have no doubt VB is the top dog. If you look
at
> professional (that is employed as developers) Java and C++ are tops.
This statement is so true! I worked for a consulting company in
Minneapolis, they marketed "non pro-programmers" as top quality developers.
The % of VB guys that I would consider real developers was less than 1/2.
They used to prep these guys by handing out the training software for taking
the Microsoft Certification tests. They actually had a person in charge of
training people and one guy that passed (I forget the courses as they have
changed) the VB tests and he had never written a single application in VB.
This obviously got the consulting company more money for the consultant
because he was MS Certified. (I stopped taking those tests after I saw
this) The guy was no dummy, but he wasn't a real developer either.
Doug
Mike Swaim
--
Mike Swaim
Michae...@Enron.com
Disclaimer: Yeah, like I speak for Enron
Kevin Frevert
about the performance degradation on our web server..
"Maybe you should use a more stable platform like ISAPI, ASP, or XML...."
"Is Delphi still the right tool for web developement? I've read that this
new WebSnap is quite good...."
krf
Rosimildo daSilva <rdas...@connecttel.com> wrote in message
news:3c3d9e56$1_2@dnews...
JQP
> The guy was no dummy, but he wasn't a real developer either.
Experience has it's virtues but so does raw talent, ability and potential.
For whatever reason, some of the best programmers I've known were trained
musicians; not "real" developers.
If the guy could pass the test without ever writing an app, I'd say his
potential is exceptional. He'll undoubtedly struggle at first but give him
a few months on the job with a patient and supportive boss and he'll
probably be as good as or better than those with more experience. On the
other hand, if his boss is only interested in labels, he may never get the
chance to develop.
Guido Geurts
Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)
> For whatever reason, some of the best programmers I've known were trained
> musicians; not "real" developers.
> If the guy could pass the test without ever writing an app, I'd say his
> potential is exceptional. He'll undoubtedly struggle at first but give
him
> a few months on the job with a patient and supportive boss and he'll
> probably be as good as or better than those with more experience. On the
> other hand, if his boss is only interested in labels, he may never get the
> chance to develop.
True, after about six months of mentoring he became quite sharp and
eventually moved into C/C++ and dumped VB altogether. (he was a good guy as
well)
Doug
JQP
news:3c3dadc5_2@dnews...
> "Maybe you should use a more stable platform like ISAPI, ASP, or XML...."
> "Is Delphi still the right tool for web developement? I've read that this
> new WebSnap is quite good...."
He obviously doesn't know much about web development but on the other hand,
you obviously don't know much about MCSE. Web *development* is not one of
the requirements.
JQP
> True, after about six months of mentoring he became quite sharp and
> eventually moved into C/C++ and dumped VB altogether. (he was a good
> guy as well)
So in the final analysis, was the test a good indicator or not?
I suppose it's all in the eye of the beholder.
Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)
> So in the final analysis, was the test a good indicator or not?
>
> I suppose it's all in the eye of the beholder.
>
The firm was using the certification to charge more for each consultant.
Some of the consultants that went through the class IMO wouldn't be
considered professional or experienced developers as they were being
marketed.
In the beginning, I liked the certification tests because developers from
the trenches were taking them from experience and it really meant you had to
know your stuff. Then a company put out sample tests with questions that
matched the real exam (i forget the company that creates these) so it was a
matter of memorizing questions and answers, not applying your experience and
knowledge.
Everything is how you are marketed I guess <g>
Doug
Alessandro Federici
news:3c3dc773_2@dnews...
> If you you don't take maintenance into account, you loose a rather large
> part
> of the market.
> BTW, do you consider re-writing as new project or maintenance ?
Absolutely not.
Re-write is for me like a new project. As a matter of fact that could mean
change the tools and sticking to the language (i.e. from MIDAS to Windows
DNA while still using Delphi) or mean a change of both (i.e. from Java to
C#)
> Seems to me you didn't take into account Kylix C++. Java may have some
real
> challenger server side.
True, I didn't think of that.
Very good point.
... largange @logicantilles...com Didier Largange
maintenance)
> is:
If you you don't take maintenance into account, you loose a rather large
part
of the market.
BTW, do you consider re-writing as new project or maintenance ?
> 1) C#
> 2) Java
> 3) VB
> 4) C++
> ...
> C++ will become less of a first class player because it's more complex
than
> the others.
Seems to me you didn't take into account Kylix C++. Java may have some real
challenger server side.
DL
Rosimildo daSilva
>> My (wild) take for the future (thinking about new projects, not
>Seems to me you didn't take into account Kylix C++. Java may have some real
>challenger server side.
You must be kidding. <g>
Rosimildo.
Rosimildo daSilva
>>
>> >Seems to me you didn't take into account Kylix C++. Java may have some
>real
>> >challenger server side.
>>
>> You must be kidding. <g>
>
Simple. Linux as well as Windows, only covers the "low-end" side of the
server side.
Also, Kylix will run on X86 linux.
Java Runs on: Linxux, Linux-Alpha, Linux-PPC, Linux-MIPS, Linux-ARM, ( add
your processor here ),
Solaris, SunOS, FreeBSD, NetBSD, OpenBSD, AIX, VMS, AS500, VMS, Windows,
VxWorks,
pSoS, QNX, OS X, MAC OS ( I could keep typing a lot more, bu I am lazy ).
So, Kylix C++ will be a good thing to add for Linux, but it would be any
competition for java.
Sorry.
Rosimildo
>That would be just perfect for it.
>What they seem to be after is performance and C/C++ is definitely aligned
>with that (for all kinds of development).
>
Alessandro Federici
Why? The Linux world appears very hard-core and C oriented to me.
That would be just perfect for it.
What they seem to be after is performance and C/C++ is definitely aligned
with that (for all kinds of development).
--
Deepak Shenoy
>
> a.. 40% of developers worldwide will use VB
> b.. 40% will use Java
> c.. 15% will use C++
> d.. 25% will use C# "
>
> LOL !!! -- these numbers give 120%.
You forget, a developer could use more than one language. IMHO, There aren't
THAT many language specific people that it will add up to only 120%, but hey
Gartner did the research.
--
Deepak Shenoy
Agni Software
http://www.agnisoft.com
John Wester
> <snip>
> You forget, a developer could use more than one language. IMHO, There aren't
> THAT many language specific people that it will add up to only 120%, but hey
> Gartner did the research.
>
So it must be true, right?
<\cynic>
--
John
Life is complex. It has real and imaginary components
Eric Brown
"Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)"
<doug.olson@99~pocket-technologies.com> wrote in message
news:3c3d1ca1_1@dnews...
mehere
> This statement is so true! I worked for a consulting company in
> Minneapolis, they marketed "non pro-programmers" as top quality
> developers. The % of VB guys that I would consider real developers was
> less than 1/2.
Buying the tools doesn't make you a programmer. I always get a kick out of
those surveys that include every copy of VB and VB script that was ever
sold or given away on a magazine cover! :-)
If I go out and buy a $10,000 set of drums, that doesn't make me a
drummer...
pnichols
> Alessandro Federici wrote in message <3c3dc90f$1_2@dnews>...
> >"Rosimildo daSilva" <rdas...@connecttel.com> wrote in message
> >news:3c3dc833_1@dnews...
> >>
> >> >Seems to me you didn't take into account Kylix C++. Java may have some
> >real
> >> >challenger server side.
> >>
> >> You must be kidding. <g>
> >
> >Why? The Linux world appears very hard-core and C oriented to me.
>
> Simple. Linux as well as Windows, only covers the "low-end" side of the
> server side.
> Also, Kylix will run on X86 linux.
>
> Java Runs on: Linxux, Linux-Alpha, Linux-PPC, Linux-MIPS, Linux-ARM, (
add
> your processor here ),
> Solaris, SunOS, FreeBSD, NetBSD, OpenBSD, AIX, VMS, AS500, VMS, Windows,
> VxWorks,
> pSoS, QNX, OS X, MAC OS ( I could keep typing a lot more, bu I am
lazy ).
>
> So, Kylix C++ will be a good thing to add for Linux, but it would be any
> competition for java.
> Sorry.
>
True, but if Borland were to make BCB not only Linux and Windows capable,
but also Unix (they ave already announced a Symbian version for the Symbian
embedded OS), then Java would have a challenger, at least in Boland land.
However, that being said, Java is better at many things than C/C++.. Some of
these areas are Web Development, Distributed network computing and general
server side development where scalability is important as well as support
for divergent OS/Hardware. Anyone knowing both C++ and Java, can easily
create these type of applications more rapidly with Java than C++.
Web Development and distributed networking wise, I do not see anything
challenging Java's dominence any time soon. But I will also be the first to
admit, when it comes to low level OS operations and where speed is paramont,
nothing challanges the C/C++ space.
If Borland will make BCB that supports Windows, Linux, and the rest of
Unixland and support compilations other than x86 architecture (they should
be able to do this by offering a Norland or gcc compile), BCB could very
well own C++ land. As Kaster and I also discussed however, this BCB must
adhere to strict ANSI compliance. But if it does, Borland will own two
markets, no doubt!
John Elrick
news:3c3d9818_1@dnews...
> Doug,
>
> I think you can get a good feel for what's number 1 by looking at the job
> boards. I just did a search on Monster and found the following:
>
> Delphi: 150
> .NET 199
> VB 981 - 1790 (Depending on whether you searched for "VB" or
"Visual
> Basic". Some of these may have been VB.NET)
> C++ 1307
> Java 3017 (JBuilder had 24)
>
> I personally think over time you will see plain VB decrease and .NET (C#
and
> VB.NET) increase substantially. There is no question the future is with
> .NET and/or Java.
While I can believe the rankings to a point, I debunked the use of job
searches as a measurement a month ago - I found that in one sample page that
many of these languages had been added as hit words often with multiple hits
off the same position.
IIRC, C# had been added as a hit word for a PeopleSoft consultant no less<g>
John
JQP
news:3c3e4558$1_2@dnews...
> While I can believe the rankings to a point, I debunked the use of job
> searches as a measurement a month ago - I found that in one sample page
> that many of these languages had been added as hit words often with
multiple
> hits off the same position.
Errors are to be expected in most statistical surveys. The mere presence of
errors doesn't necessarily invalidate the results.
Assuming errors occur more or less equally across the board in all
categories, relative rankings and comparisons are still valid.
John Elrick
It is that assumption that I don't necessarily buy.
I would say it is safe to assume from the boards that Java and C++ are in
high demand, as is VB.
But I would not assume that they are (say) 20 times as in demand as Delphi
programmers due to cross contamination in the postings (VB and C++ often get
mentioned at the same time as do Java and C++. So, are they looking for a
VB programmer? A C++ programmer? A PeopleSoft technician? A network
specialist?) OTOH, IIRC, roughly 75% of the Delphi listings actually dealt
with a Delphi position in the sample I took.
If you were to take a random sample of, say, 200 listings for each and prune
them into categories of what the job position actually required vs the
"language skill set" being requested, I think you would get a far different
picture of the job marketplace.
Unfortunately, I don't have the time to do that right now<g>
John Elrick
Deepak Shenoy
aren't
> > THAT many language specific people that it will add up to only 120%, but
hey
> > Gartner did the research.
> >
> <cynic>
> So it must be true, right?
> <\cynic>
:)
Somehow sarcasm doesn't show up so well on newsgroups - I probably need the
<sarcasm> tag there in "Gartner did the research" ...
spam]@xnet.com John Jacobson
This just goes to show how misleading it actually is for a manager to
base a tool/language decision on popularity.
Douglas Olson (Pocket Technologies)
> base a tool/language decision on popularity.
That was my point of posting the URL in the Delphi.non-technical area. I
personally think these statistics are very misleading... * I have seen more
projects using Delphi than I did 3 years ago, but it never seems to make the
polls *
Doug