Earthquake advisory for the Indonesia area Dec. 7, 1998
E.D.G.
TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: December 7, 1998 (98/12/07 15:25:00 UTC)
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
It would be appreciated if people reading the Newsgroup
version of this advisory sent copies of it to any Indonesia area
government earthquake forecasters that they know.
A more detailed version of this advisory is being
circulated by e-mail. All of the information in this advisory
represents expressions of personal opinion.
EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY DATA
Several earthquake warning type signals which I believe I
detected as an "earthquake sensitive" during the past few days
indicate to me that a fairly strong earthquake could be about to
occur in the Indonesia area at some time during the next few
days. Those signals pointed to a number of possible locations
between 110E and 125E longitude.
The procedures which I use to tell where an earthquake is
likely to occur actually point to multiple possible locations
around the world. And this expected earthquake could occur
somewhere else. But at this time the Indonesia area looks most
likely.
I believe that I sometimes detect warning signals for
earthquakes in that part of the world for weeks before they
finally occur. And if it appears that this may happen with this
expected earthquake then I am planning to try to circulate
another advisory if and when I am able to determine that it is
about to occur.
RECOMMENDATIONS
1. Governments in that area should be prepared to respond to a
potentially destructive earthquake should one occur during the
next few days. I do not know if it would produce a tidal wave.
2. Earthquake forecasters should add to their data bases the
fact that I am advising them that an earthquake which we might
need to be concerned about could occur somewhere in the world
within the next few days and the fact that the Indonesia area
appears to me to be the most likely location.
ADDITIONAL: PROPOSED EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAM
Last week I began contacting different people as part of
an effort to have the U.S. government develop an earthquake
forecasting program which would be based on several earthquake
location determination procedures which I have developed. The
U.S. program would I believe most likely involve monitoring
electromagnetic energy field fluctuations (low frequency radio
wave type signals). I am hoping that some significant progress
will have been made with this effort by the end of January, 1999.
Bill Smith
E.D.G. wrote in message <74gs1q$q...@sjx-ixn9.ix.netcom.com>...
>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR THE INDONESIA AREA
>
>TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
>From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
>Date: December 7, 1998 (98/12/07 15:25:00 UTC)
>Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
>
> It would be appreciated if people reading the Newsgroup
>version of this advisory sent copies of it to any Indonesia area
>government earthquake forecasters that they know.
NUTS
David Hatunen
E.D.G. <edgr...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR THE INDONESIA AREA
>
>TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
>From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
>Date: December 7, 1998 (98/12/07 15:25:00 UTC)
>Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
>
> It would be appreciated if people reading the Newsgroup
>version of this advisory sent copies of it to any Indonesia area
>government earthquake forecasters that they know.
>
>circulated by e-mail. All of the information in this advisory
>represents expressions of personal opinion.
>
>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY DATA
>
> Several earthquake warning type signals which I believe I
>detected as an "earthquake sensitive" during the past few days
>indicate to me that a fairly strong earthquake could be about to
>occur in the Indonesia area at some time during the next few
>days. Those signals pointed to a number of possible locations
>between 110E and 125E longitude.
>
> The procedures which I use to tell where an earthquake is
>likely to occur actually point to multiple possible locations
>around the world. And this expected earthquake could occur
>somewhere else. But at this time the Indonesia area looks most
>likely.
Well, it's 0003 8 December UTC now; any events worth noting yet?
(Frankly, given the wide time window and rather large and vague
geographic window here, I'd be rather surprised if there weren't an
such an earthquake).
--
********** DAVE HATUNEN (hat...@sonic.net) ***********
* Daly City California: *
* where San Francisco meets The Peninsula *
******* and the San Andreas Fault meets the Sea *******
David Hatunen
David Hatunen <hat...@sonic.net> wrote:
>In article <74gs1q$q...@sjx-ixn9.ix.netcom.com>,
>E.D.G. <edgr...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR THE INDONESIA AREA
>> Several earthquake warning type signals which I believe I
>>detected as an "earthquake sensitive" during the past few days
>>indicate to me that a fairly strong earthquake could be about to
>>occur in the Indonesia area at some time during the next few
>>days. Those signals pointed to a number of possible locations
>>between 110E and 125E longitude.
>>
>> The procedures which I use to tell where an earthquake is
>>likely to occur actually point to multiple possible locations
>>around the world. And this expected earthquake could occur
>>somewhere else. But at this time the Indonesia area looks most
>>likely.
>
>Well, it's 0003 8 December UTC now; any events worth noting yet?
>(Frankly, given the wide time window and rather large and vague
>geographic window here, I'd be rather surprised if there weren't an
>such an earthquake).
We're up to about 1600 9 Dec UTC now. How we doing?
tho...@my-dejanews.com
98/12/07 23:37:06 8.35S 121.58E 33.0 5.4Ms
FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
I don't know, is this considered a hit? (Pulled from the NEIC site:
http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html
This is not exactly a seismically quiet area!
James Powell
-----------== Posted via Deja News, The Discussion Network ==----------
http://www.dejanews.com/ Search, Read, Discuss, or Start Your Own
David Hatunen
E.D.G. <edgr...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>In <74gs1q$q...@sjx-ixn9.ix.netcom.com> edgr...@ix.netcom.com(E.D.G.)
>writes:
>>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR THE INDONESIA AREA
>>
>>From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
>>Date: December 7, 1998 (98/12/07 15:25:00 UTC)
>>Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
>>
>>
>>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY DATA
>>
>> Several earthquake warning type signals which I believe I
>>detected as an "earthquake sensitive" during the past few days
>>indicate to me that a fairly strong earthquake could be about to
>>occur in the Indonesia area at some time during the next few
>>days. Those signals pointed to a number of possible locations
>>between 110E and 125E longitude.
>>
>
>From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
>Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
>
> I am planning to try to update this advisory tomorrow,
>December 10, 1998. At the moment it appears that I may be
>extending it for Indonesia areas (but not other areas of the
>world) until December 15, 1998.
You just keep extending it. Sooner or later you'll have extended it
enough.
E.D.G.
writes:
>
>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR THE INDONESIA AREA
>
>TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
>From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
>Date: December 7, 1998 (98/12/07 15:25:00 UTC)
>Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
>
>(parts of original advisory clipped)
>
>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY DATA
>
> Several earthquake warning type signals which I believe I
>detected as an "earthquake sensitive" during the past few days
>indicate to me that a fairly strong earthquake could be about to
>occur in the Indonesia area at some time during the next few
>days. Those signals pointed to a number of possible locations
>between 110E and 125E longitude.
>
TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: December 9, 1998 (98/12/10 01:20:00 UTC)
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
I am planning to try to update this advisory tomorrow,
December 10, 1998. At the moment it appears that I may be
extending it for Indonesia areas (but not other areas of the
world) until December 15, 1998.
All of the information in this advisory represents
expressions of personal opinion.
RMW Musson
<74md2g$e9s$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
> In article <74m5l6$1...@bolt.sonic.net>,
>
> 98/12/07 23:37:06 8.35S 121.58E 33.0 5.4Ms
> FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
>
> I don't know, is this considered a hit? (Pulled from the NEIC site:
> http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html
> This is not exactly a seismically quiet area!
>
This isn't a hit because it preceded the prediction. But you are also
right, a magnitude 5.4 somewhere in Indonesia is not a remarkable
happening.
--
Roger Musson
E.D.G.
<R.Mu...@bgs.ac.uk> writes:
>
>tho...@my-dejanews.com wrote in article
><74md2g$e9s$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
>> In article <74m5l6$1...@bolt.sonic.net>,
>>
>> 98/12/07 23:37:06 8.35S 121.58E 33.0 5.4Ms
>> FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
>>
>> I don't know, is this considered a hit? (Pulled from the NEIC site:
>> http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html
>> This is not exactly a seismically quiet area!
>>
>
>This isn't a hit because it preceded the prediction. But you are also
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: December 10, 1998
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake,
What I recommend that people do is rely on the UTC time
that I include at the top of my earthquake advisories rather than
the time that their Internet servers say it was posted. If I am
reading it correctly, the Netcom server copy of my advisory which
I have on file says that it was posted at:
Date: 7 Dec 1998 15:25:46 GMT
which is essentially the same as my own:
Date: December 7, 1998 (98/12/07 15:25:00 UTC)
which was listed at the top of my advisory.
That UTC time is being placed there for several important
reasons including the following one. And this is a picture of
how the Newsgroup system works which someone explained to me at
one time. If it is no longer correct or never was correct then
perhaps someone else can post a note with a more accurate
explanation.
What I was told is that Internet servers maintain their
own Newsgroup lists. And when you post a Newsgroup notice it
goes first to your own server which posts it to its internal
lists when is has time. It also makes the notice available to
other servers, again, when it has time. Those other servers will
themselves post it to their own internal Newsgroup lists when
they have time.
I checked when one of of my Newsgroup postings appeared on
two different servers once and saw it appear almost immediately
on one and not until a day or two later on the other.
My Newsgroup advisories are intended in large part to
serve as contacts with government earthquake forecasters who are
in parts of the world where I cannot easily reach them directly
by e-mail or FAX. And I include that UTC posting time so that
those people know when the advisory was first circulated. If
they are on an Internet server which is slow to update its
Newsgroups then they might not see my advisory for several days
and need to be aware of that should they decide to include my
advisory information in their earthquake precursor data base.
Eric DeFonso
RMW Musson <R.Mu...@bgs.ac.uk> wrote:
>tho...@my-dejanews.com wrote in article
><74md2g$e9s$1...@nnrp1.dejanews.com>...
>> In article <74m5l6$1...@bolt.sonic.net>,
>>
>> 98/12/07 23:37:06 8.35S 121.58E 33.0 5.4Ms
>> FLORES REGION, INDONESIA
>>
>> I don't know, is this considered a hit? (Pulled from the NEIC site:
>> http://wwwneic.cr.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/bulletin.html
>> This is not exactly a seismically quiet area!
>>
>
>This isn't a hit because it preceded the prediction.
Actually, I think this quake occurred about 8 hours after the post was
received at my site (which was less than a minute after the date stamp
on the post).
Eric D
E.D.G.
edgr...@ix.netcom.com(E.D.G.) writes:
>
>In <74gs1q$q...@sjx-ixn9.ix.netcom.com> edgr...@ix.netcom.com(E.D.G.)
>writes:
>>
>>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR THE INDONESIA AREA
>>
>>TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
>>
>>(text clipped)
>>
TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: December 11, 1998 (98/12/11 09:40:00 UTC)
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
Also circulated by e-mail
Ladies, Gentlemen,
On December 7, 1998 I circulated an earthquake advisory
for a potentially destructive earthquake which I thought could
occur between December 5 and December 9, 1998, possibly in the
Indonesia area between 110E and 125E longitude.
That earthquake advisory is being extended to the end of
December 14, 1998 for that same area. The day on which people
should be watching most carefully is December 13, 1998 UTC.
Most of my recent earthquake forecasting research efforts
have focused on determining WHERE earthquakes might be about to
occur. I have now begun working on developing procedures for
determining WHEN they are most likely to occur. This time window
extension is based on my analysis of several earthquakes which
have occurred in that part of the world during the past few
years.
RMW Musson
Eric DeFonso <szde...@dilbert.ucdavis.edu> wrote in article
> >
> >This isn't a hit because it preceded the prediction.
>
> Actually, I think this quake occurred about 8 hours after the post was
> received at my site (which was less than a minute after the date stamp
> on the post).
>
In that case, I withdraw the above remark.
--
Roger Musson
E.D.G.
writes:
>edgr...@ix.netcom.com(E.D.G.) writes:
>>In <74gs1q$q...@sjx-ixn9.ix.netcom.com> edgr...@ix.netcom.com(E.D.G.)
>>writes:
>>>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR THE INDONESIA AREA
>>>
>>>TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
>>>From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
>>>Date: December 7, 1998 (98/12/07 15:25:00 UTC)
>>>Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
>>>(text clipped)
>>>
TO: Indonesia area government earthquake forecasters
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: December 15, 1998
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
Also circulated by e-mail
Ladies, Gentlemen,
I recently circulated an earthquake advisory for a
potentially destructive earthquake which I thought might occur
between December 5 and December 14, 1998, possibly in the
Indonesia area.
That time window has now closed and I have not been able
to positively identify which of several earthquakes occurring
around the world might have been associated with the earthquake
warning type signal which I detected. None of those earthquakes
was especially destructive.
As I suggested in my original advisory, there may have
been an interference with that particular warning signal which
made it difficult to evaluate. Two other advisories for
potentially destructive earthquakes which I circulated before
that one, for central Asia areas and for Iran were, I feel,
fairly accurate.
All of the information in this letter represents
expressions of personal opinion.
David Hatunen
E.D.G. <edgr...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
>Ladies, Gentlemen,
>
> I recently circulated an earthquake advisory for a
>potentially destructive earthquake which I thought might occur
>between December 5 and December 14, 1998, possibly in the
>Indonesia area.
>
> That time window has now closed and I have not been able
>to positively identify which of several earthquakes occurring
>around the world might have been associated with the earthquake
>warning type signal which I detected. None of those earthquakes
>was especially destructive.
>
> As I suggested in my original advisory, there may have
>been an interference with that particular warning signal which
>made it difficult to evaluate.
There's always excuses afterward.
I'm rather amazed that there wasn't a hit, given the seismic
instability of the area in question. Perhaps your gift is really
the detection of quiescent periods?
[...]