Earthquake advisory for central Asia areas 11/16/98
E.D.G.
THAILAND, CENTRAL - WESTERN CHINA, WESTERN SUMATRA, AND WESTERN
MALAYSIA AREAS
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date Posted: November 16, 1998 (98/11/17 03:05:00 UTC)
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes and fj.disaster.earthquake
Also circulated by e-mail
DATA FOR THIS EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE
Time Window: November 16 to November 20 (both dates 1998)
Magnitude: 5.5 to 6.0 for URBAN, densely populated
areas such as cities
6.0 to 6.5 for RURAL areas where there are
scattered villages, out in the
ocean but not too far from land
6.5 and up for REMOTE areas, mountains,
deserts, out at sea far from land
Location: Eastern India, Pakistan, western Thailand,
central - western China, western Sumatra,
western Malaysia areas
RECOMMENDATIONS: For earthquake forecasters who are working for
governments in those areas
(1) If you have not yet seen my more detailed e-mail earthquake
advisory then you should contact me at edgr...@ix.netcom.com to
obtain a copy.
(2) You might check your records to see if unusually large
numbers of earthquake precursor observations were being reported
at some location between November 10, 1998 and November 16, 1998.
COMMENTS:
(A) This is not expected to be a highly destructive earthquake.
(B) It is possible that it has already occurred:
b 1998/11/16 11:04:55.8 4.00N 95.24E 14 88.5 mb 4.1
Northern Sumatera, Indonesia (data from an IDC table - 4.1
magnitude might convert to about 5.0 on the scale that I use)
However, that magnitude is low. And that earthquake occurred
earlier than I would have expected.
(C) My advisories are for earthquakes which may occur close
enough to populated areas to be destructive. They are intended
in part to provide governments and disaster response groups with
at least some advance warning. Advisory time windows,
magnitudes, and locations are estimates which are based on recent
earthquake warning type signals and data from past earthquakes.
All of the information in this notice represents expressions of
personal opinion.
John Holmes
E.D.G. wrote in message <72qp23$q...@dfw-ixnews5.ix.netcom.com>...
>EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY FOR EASTERN INDIA, PAKISTAN, WESTERN
>THAILAND, CENTRAL - WESTERN CHINA, WESTERN SUMATRA, AND WESTERN
>MALAYSIA AREAS
Eastern India and Pakistan, but not western India???? What sort of an
area is that?
It's also very large, about 45 deg longitude by 35 deg latitude.
Regards,
John.
hol...@smart.net.au
email copies of any replies would be appreciated.
E.D.G.
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: November 17, 1998
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
TO: John Homes
All of the information in this notice represents
expressions of personal opinion.
There are at least two important steps involved with
forecasting earthquakes, 1. generating accurate data, and 2.
transmitting the data to people who can make effective use of it.
An earthquake forecasting procedure which I have been
developing for a number of years is now providing me with what I
believe are fairly accurate data for at least some approaching
destructive earthquakes. That second step then becomes
important. If you have that information and wish to send it to
seismologists in some country, how do you go about doing that in
a timely manner? You need only attempt that once to find out how
difficult it can be.
I have tried a number of different approaches for
circulating earthquake forecasting data during the past few years
and am presently testing the following two:
1. I am gradually putting together a list of e-mail addresses
for earthquake related government agencies around the world. The
idea is to send advisory data directly to the government
earthquake forecasters. Unfortunately, those agencies in
different countries have to be tracked down one at a time. And
that requires a TREMENDOUS amount of time.
2. Short earthquake advisories are being posted to
sci.geo.earthquakes which I believe may be the most widely read
earthquake related Newsgroup. They alert government officials to
the fact that they should begin watching for a possible
destructive earthquake in some area. And they tell them that
they should contact me for additional details. I can sometimes
provide them with a list of specific locations to check for
earthquake precursor activity.
My November 16, 1998 earthquake advisory was intended for
the People's Republic of China, India, Malaysia, Pakistan,
Sumatra (Indonesia), and Thailand. That is a lot of area to
cover if you are trying to figure out where an earthquake might
be about to occur. However, it also means that just ONE
government earthquake forecaster or seismologist in each of a
half dozen countries out of hundreds around the world need
contact me by e-mail to get a copy of my more detailed earthquake
advisory. How difficult could that be?
E.D.G.
E.D.G.
<hol...@smart.net.au> writes:
>
>
>Eastern India and Pakistan, but not western India???? What sort of an
>area is that?
>
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: November 18, 1998
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.disaster.earthquake
TO: John Holmes
All of the information in this notice represents
expressions of personal opinion.
Your question was accurate. The list of countries in my
original advisory should have said BANGLADESH instead of
Pakistan.
As I said in my previous notice, this is a project which
is being gradually developed. And each step means another group
of errors such as that one which need to be identified and
corrected. This is not carelessness. It has to do with the
complexity of the project. There are so many details involved
with each of these earthquake forecasts that I have had to write
and rely extensively on a number of different types of computer
programs in order to manage the data.
Tommy Dye
data?