Possible earthquake advisory 3/1/98
The Hammer
In article <6ddapo$h...@sjx-ixn8.ix.netcom.com>,
edgr...@ix.netcom.com(E.D.G.) wrote:
>POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY
>
>From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
>Date and time this advisory was circulated:
>March 1, 1998 (98/03/02 04:00:00 UTC)
>Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.misc.earthquake
>
> An advisory is being circulated for a potentially
>destructive 5.3 to 6.3 magnitude earthquake for the time period
>March 1, 1998 to March 5, 1998.
>
> Location determination procedures which I am presently
>evaluating may become operational some time this week or next.
>
> All of the information in this notice represents
>expressions of personal opinion.
>
>Additional recommendations, explanations, and advisory updates
>etc. can be found in my Earthquake Alert Page at address (URL):
>http://www.webcom.com/quakenet/members/solutions/quakealert.html
>(or) http://www.quakenet.org/members/solutions/quakealert.html
Ed, far be from me to be critical, but are you not stacking the deck with
this prediction/advisory/spam. I just went back a few weeks and there has
not been a 4 day period without at least a 5.3 quake in quite awhile. I
also find fault with posting a prediction by your own words on March 2nd
and having that prediction cover March 1st. How about a location for this
"event", what are you going to do, fill in that blank after the event
occurs? (Try the Soloman Is.)
Tell me, do you find it easier to hit predictions when you post 21+ hours
after a event that fits your prediction has occurred?
98/03/01 06:15:52 7.54S 157.89E 42.7 5.5Mb B SOLOMON ISLANDS
Sorry, but I put you in the same category as turdi.
E.D.G.
E.D.G.
In <NoSpam4Me-010...@ana0006.deltanet.com>
NoSp...@deltanet.com (The Hammer) writes:
>
>Tell me, do you find it easier to hit predictions when you post
>21+ hours after a event that fits your prediction has occurred?
RE: POSSIBLE EARTHQUAKE ADVISORY
From: E.D.G. Scientific Consultant edgr...@ix.netcom.com
Date: March 2, 1998
Posted to: sci.geo.earthquakes, fj.misc.earthquake
All of the information in this notice represents
expressions of personal opinion.
RESPONSES
1. My earthquake advisories state the following to other
scientists, earthquake forecasters, government officials, and any
other parties around the world who are interested in preventing
or responding to disasters:
1a. "Some type of disaster may be about to occur, most likely a
destructive earthquake. I recommend that you watch for it for
the next 4 days. You should also review your earthquake
precursor records etc. to see if they might indicate when and
where the earthquake will occur. THIS is the date when I
detected the original earthquake warning type signal. Go back 1
week in time from that date with your record search."
1b. "If you are working with some disaster response group, then
my proposed earthquake magnitude numbers might provide you with
some idea regarding how destructive the earthquake will be."
So, why not send that data to government officials etc.
around the world through official channels instead of Internet
Newsgroups?
One reason is that those channels do not presently exist.
Or, to the extent that they do, they are not easily accessible by
people who do not work for some government agency. I have
discovered this from my personal experiences and from talking at
length with people who are active in these areas at the
international level. THEY are telling me that those channels do
not exist.
One group of information exchange channels which ARE
available to people outside of our government agencies are our
Internet Newsgroups. And if someone is trying to send data in a
timely manner to earthquake forecasting personnel in a remote
area of the world then the Newsgroups provide us with at least
SOME mechanism for doing that. And I expect that the Newsgroups
will have to do for that until the day arrives when something
better is available, actually a day which might not be that far
away. United Nations personnel, for example, appear to be
gradually expanding their earthquake forecasting data collection
and evaluation type efforts.
See: http://www1.shore.net/~globalw/ungp/
2. This is part of a research effort which is intended to find
out how accurate and reliable human earthquake sensitivity based
earthquake forecasts might be. With such an effort it is
important to provide researchers with all of the available data.
And even if I am unable to post a "prediction" to my Web site or
to the Newsgroups immediately after I detect an earthquake
warning type signal, to other researchers, eventually having that
information regarding WHEN the original warning signal was
detected etc. is still important.
3. In the near future I am going to try to circulate a report
which will discuss two earthquake location determination
procedures which will explain how I believe people can make FAR
more effective use of my earthquake warning data. And I consider
it to be something of a waste of time to argue with anyone about
this subject matter until after that report has been circulated.
Earthquake Alert Page: