Yi-Tan Tech Community Call #363 - Jobs Past and Future - 1:30pm Eastern, Monday 2012-03-19

[Jerry Michalski]

Greetings,

In 1900, many people were employed tending horses and playing in orchestras and bands. The car and the phonograph/radio were visible, but hadn't ripped their way through the global economy yet.

Let's take a look at today's economy and discuss the jobs that look like they won't be around very long, as well as those that look really promising into the future.

Together, let's discuss:

• What industries and skill classes will automation nuke?
• How will humans adapt? Where are the opportunities?
• Will new jobs show up in time for the new unemployed?
• Bonus: what should today's youth study?

For the adventuresome: "Future of Work" in my Brain.

As always, an IRC chat will be available during the call at #yitan.

We tweet as @yitan (and use #yitan as our hashtag). Please follow us on Twitter. This page is on the web here.

Date: Monday, 2012-03-19

Time: 10:30am Pacific, 1:30pm Eastern

Dial: 1-626-677-3000, passcode 778778

See all the Yi-Tan calls in the weekly call archive or listen to the edited podcasts on the Blog. You can also listen to the shorter call summaries there.

Please feel free to forward this note to people you think would be interested in these calls. (To unsubscribe, just reply to me and I'll be happy to do so.)

Talk to you on the call!

Bestest,

Jerry

[Martin Focazio]

Oh, how much I wish I could participate in this, however, I'll be at a client kickoff meeting that directly overlaps this call. I'll take advantage of the fact that I can email in comments ahead of the call to state the following: 

- Automation can, will and does eradicate work in ALL skill classes and industries. There will be robots hanging sheetrock as sure as we don't have "typing pools" anymore. 

- Eradication of work does not mean what is was supposed to mean when I was a kid - an increase in leisure time. Humans will adapt by looking for "work" not "jobs" or "careers".

- Automation coupled with highly skilled knowledge workers = productivity & profit increases for companies, nothing more. 

- I personally think that "jobs" won't be what most people have in the future, companies will act much more like agencies, a small core of owner/employees surrounded by a collection of contract and subcontract labor that grows and shrinks rapidly. "Job Security" will mean a place to lock up your stuff while at the factory. 

• What industries and skill classes will automation nuke?
• How will humans adapt? Where are the opportunities?
• Will new jobs show up in time for the new unemployed?
• Bonus: what should today's youth study?

For the adventuresome: "Future of Work" in my Brain.

As always, an IRC chat will be available during the call at #yitan.

We tweet as @yitan (and use #yitan as our hashtag). Please follow us on Twitter. This page is on the web here.

Date: Monday, 2012-03-19

Time: 10:30am Pacific, 1:30pm Eastern

Dial: 1-626-677-3000, passcode 778778

See all the Yi-Tan calls in the weekly call archive or listen to the edited podcasts on the Blog. You can also listen to the shorter call summaries there.

Please feel free to forward this note to people you think would be interested in these calls. (To unsubscribe, just reply to me and I'll be happy to do so.)

Talk to you on the call!

Bestest,

Jerry

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[Bill Anderson]

Martin, I think you are on to something here. I am also concerned that
there will not be enough "work" (however defined) to go around. How
will those without "work" survive?

Will we all share work?

Bill

[Drummond Reed]

I too have a conflict for the call, but I wish I could make it as I am spending more and more time thinking about this relative to what we are doing at Connect.Me and Respect Network. One of our aims is to provide infrastructure for the knowledge economy, so that you can easily attract work based on your reputation and interests and intersections, and also publish/subscribe to the intents of others either seeking workers or seeking work.

I believe a robust and trusted intent network can become an enormous new factor driving the knowledge economy in particular and the overall economy in general. It will change the nature of work - making it more fluid and dynamic - but it will also tap large new aquifers of creativity, synergy, and productivity.

=Drummond

[John David Smith]

It might help inform our discussion if we took a moment to consult Wikipedia before fretting on Monday about whether there will be enough “work”: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy  The Lump of Labor fallacy is one of the most persistent beliefs, even though I find it hard to believe it.

 

John

* John David Smith ~ Voice: 503.963.8229 ~ Skype & Twitter: smithjd

* Portland, Oregon, USA http://www.learningAlliances.net

* "Even great art is lost without a buyer." -- Lenny Greenberg

[Jerry Michalski]

John: thank goodness Wikipedia's got the answer. Thanks for pointing us to yet another useful fallacy (which, strangely, was already in my Brain but I'd forgotten about). 

Drummond: yes! I'm eager to use Connect.me as infrastructure for just these sorts of things. Months to API? :)

Marty: thanks for the insightful comments, particularly that extra productivity accrues to corporate profits, but seldom elsewhere (like to workers as $$ or leisure). 

Should be a fun call.

Cheers,

Jerry

[Drummond Reed]

On Fri, Mar 16, 2012 at 4:53 PM, Jerry Michalski <je...@sociate.com> wrote:

John: thank goodness Wikipedia's got the answer. Thanks for pointing us to yet another useful fallacy (which, strangely, was already in my Brain but I'd forgotten about). 

Drummond: yes! I'm eager to use Connect.me as infrastructure for just these sorts of things. Months to API? :)

May for direct partners; Sept for public access. Can't wait!

=Drummond
 

[Bill Anderson]

John, thanks for the link. And while I am relieved to know that my
naive worry is unfounded, I am somehow still uneasy. I have some
homework to do.

Bill

[John David Smith]

Thinking about this more, facing the supposed wisdom of Wikipedia, etc. I
think economies ARE inefficient or incompetent at making new jobs, of
recognizing new needs, of finding ways to meet needs. Conversely societies
are capable of inventing problematic or perverse needs that launch whole new
industries. Just because there ARE enough jobs doesn't mean that a society
is healthy.

AND I think that the lump of labor is a fallacy over some longer term -- but
we never know what term and we never know what the logjams are. So it IS
appropriate to be uneasy. But we have to be as careful as possible about
where our unease focuses.

It should be a good call! Thanks Jerry for posing such a good question.
You are a social artist of the first magnitude. For more on social
artistry, see:

http://cpsquare.org/2012/03/workshop-schedule-social-artistry-and-hacking-v-
stacking/

John
* John David Smith ~ Voice: 503.963.8229 ~ Skype & Twitter: smithjd
* Portland, Oregon, USA http://www.learningAlliances.net
* "Even great art is lost without a buyer." -- Lenny Greenberg

[Peter Capek]

Here's another comment that's current and relevant, but with a shorter term focus:

http://www.alternet.org/visions/154518/why_we_have_to_go_back_to_a_40-hour_work_week_to_keep_our_sanity/?page=entire


             Peter Capek