February - Dust, wind, and fire...and FOG

[NWS Lubbock - Joe]

Most people think of February as a winter month with thoughts of
snow. However, here in West Texas, most winters are dominated by
other hazards. This winter, we are being influenced by La Nina, a
cyclic phenomenon whereby the temperatures in portions of the Pacific
Ocean are cooler than average. What does that have to do with the
weather here? Well, quite a bit actually. The global weather pattern
is influenced such that storm tracks remain largely north of our area
leaving us with a drier than average winter. This has certainly been
the case this winter as we're now in 7th place for the most
consecutive days without measurable rainfall for Lubbock-69. In fact,
77 days (which is quite plausible) will get us to third place.

Typically, drier weather yields clear skies which are great for
flying, but at the same time, it can lead to complacency when it comes
to weather. February is also one of our climatically favored months
for fog which can form very rapidly. When preparing your flight,
don't stop with a standard briefing. Go find the aviation forecast
discussion from the nearest office and read it. See
http://aviationweather.gov/products/afd/ This product is where
forecasters can communicate uncertainties and possibilities that may
affect your flight. Fog can be tough to forecast here...so often it
is a borderline situation. The last thing you want to do is be caught
above it without the fuel required for success. The TAF is our best
forecast. It is not a guarantee!

With the storm track further north, we are also more prone to periods
of very windy conditions and there are well known patterns which we,
as meteorologists look for. Since we get a lot of it, we've gotten
pretty good at forecasting windy days over the years and the science
continues to evolve.

With the wind, comes the potential for dust. Most all of us have seen
it. Usually, when winds get above 30 mph while dry, the visibility
starts to suffer. Given the right conditions, high winds can bring
visibilities down to under 1/4 mile, so it's a good thing to plan
accordingly. Not to mention, it can be a very bumpy ride.

Here's a interesting tidbit...What effect does a quick thunderstorm
have on blowing dust promotion? During the storm itself, aside from
dust that may be picked up by downdrafts, some suppression may occur.
However, once things dry out again (say the next day), it is much
easier to loft the dust. Why? Well, if you think about it, if
raindrops hit the ground and kick up small amounts of dust, what
settles last? Yes, the smallest dust particles drop slowest and
therefore lay on top. So, the next good wind that comes along has a
much easier time lofting the dust!

In closing, if you have a flight and have any questions regarding the
weather, give us a call. We'll do our best to give you the weather
information to help you make the best decision about your flight. Our
number is available on the bottom of our office's aviation weather
page http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/?n=wxdata-localaviation

Safe Flying,
Joe