FW: 2009 Hurricane Season Predictions

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Evans F. Mitchell; KD4EFM / AFA4TH / WQFK-894

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Dec 11, 2008, 2:42:46 PM12/11/08

to D-STAR S.E. ADMINS., wcfla...@googlegroups.com, northfl...@googlegroups.com, South Fla D-Star Google Group, VOIP-...@yahoogroups.com

OF THE HURRICANES. DSTAR WAS USED 4 OUT OF 8 TIMES.

VoIP Wx Net, 100 % activation during 5 of the named storms...

NOW:

14 being called for next year, 3 intense. Let's hope it's quite though...

Happy Holidays.

Evans F. Mitchell

KD4EFM / AFA4TH FL / WQFK-894

Alt. NCS SE D* WX-NET

www.polkemcomm.org

Train Safety:

There is a train coming in either direction

at any time, ALWAYS stop, look, & listen.

NEVER STOP ON A TRACK, NO MATTER WHAT!

Subject: 2009 Hurricane Season Predictions

Below is the latest predictions from Dr. Gray for the 2009 Hurricane season. Keep in mind, there will be a couple of minor updates throughout next year leading into the 2009 Hurricane Season. As you can see at the bottom, Dr. Gray predictions accuracy for the 2008 Hurricane Season was either conservative or dead on the money.

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2009 Forecast Parameter and 1950-2000 Climatology (in parentheses)	10 December 2008 Forecast for 2009
Named Storms (NS) (9.6)	14
Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)	70
Hurricanes (H) (5.9)	7
Hurricane Days (HD) (24.5)	30
Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)	3
Intense Hurricane Days (IHD) (5.0)	7
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (96.1)	125
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (100%)	135

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

1) Entire U.S. coastline - 63% (average for last century is 52%)

2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 39% (average for last century is 31%)

3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 38% (average for last century is 30%)

4) Above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Information obtained through November 2008 indicates that the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season will be somewhat more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2009 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 14 named storms (average is 9.6), 70 named storm days (average is 49.1), 30 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 120 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2009 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on a new extended-range early December statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 58 years of past data. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We currently do not expect to see El Niño conditions during the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

2008	7 Dec. 2007	Update 9 April	Update 3 June	Update 5 August	Obs.
Hurricanes	7	8	8	9	8
Named Storms	13	15	15	17	16
Hurricane Days	30	40	40	45	29.50
Named Storm Days	60	80	80	90	84.75
Intense Hurricanes	3	4	4	5	5
Intense Hurricane Days	6	9	9	11	8.50
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity	125	160	160	190	164