Fw: Prof. Olukotun's Column
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PDP’S SELF DESTRUCTIVE QUARRELS AND GROWING IRRELEVANCE
AYO OLUKOTUN
Nigeria presents itself to the world in fascinating contrasts and as a study in unrealized expectations and beckoning greatness frustrated by adversity and self-inflicted wounds. Facebook Founder, Mark Zuckerberg alluded on an optimistic note, to one dimension of the Nigerian paradox when he told a workshop in Lagos on Wednesday that despite the biting economic hardship “after being here, there is no way that this place (Nigeria), doesn’t end up shaping the way things get done around the world”.
It does not appear that Zuckerberg was merely speaking to please his growing clientele in Nigeria; rather he seemed earnest, echoing statements which several world leaders have made about Nigeria’s manifest destiny. If the country will eventually transit from the current wilderness of deferred greatness to the world stage however, it must get among other things its democratic governance right, by alternating power smoothly between its major parties in free and fair elections. It is in this context that we worry about the looming erasure from the political map of the country the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Of course, it is easy to say good riddance if the PDP expires as a result of external pressure and ongoing bickering considering its many blemishes. In fact, several politicians and sympathizers of the ruling All Progressive Congress are already gloating at the travails of the PDP if for no other reason than that it would mean that a major rival has gone into extinction. It is difficult nonetheless for a true democrat to rejoice at the probable emergence of a one party state however virtuous that one party is. As this writer suggested in “PDP: An opposition party absent from duty” (The Punch, 6th May, 2016), democracy is the better and healthier for it when it is served by two major parties each with roughly equal chances of winning or losing General Elections. True, and as some politicians are already strategizing, another party may rise up from the ashes of the PDP but will such a party have the spread and the forte of the imploding PDP?
As known, the gravity of the current fractionalisation of the party is evident in the holding of rival primaries by the two major factions for the forthcoming Ondo State election, suggesting that the schisms are deep and hard to reconcile. Similarly, the crisis has thrown up a plethora of court cases and rival court rulings to the extent that it will be almost impossible to hold a National Convention without one side obtaining an injunction to abort it.
The unravelling of what was once proclaimed as Africa’s largest party, projected to govern the country for 50 or so years carries with it a hint of tragedy mutating into farce as one observes the combatants displaying fervour at tackling their opponents without a trace of embarrassment or awareness that both parties in the fray are sealing the doom of their party. This blissful or pretended ignorance reminds one of Professor Larry Diamond’s comment in his seminal book on Nigeria’s First Republic that when actors driving on a narrow lane show no awareness of the fragile terrain in which they are acting, they provoke a Samson option in which all contending parties face destruction. It is possible of course as some have speculated that one of the disputing parties is merely playing the spoiler with instigation from the ruling party, becoming defiant in order to bring about a mutually assured destruction of the PDP.
Before carrying the narrative further however, this writer craves the reader’s indulgence to enter a short take. Leading the commentariat at The Punch Newspaper is Prof. Niyi Akinnaso, famed Tuesday Columnist and until recently when he retired from the United States the occupant of two prestigious Chairs at Temple University, Philadelphia, one in Anthropology the other in Linguistics. Naturally, I pay close attention to Akinnaso’s responses to my column and was very pleased when last week he wrote an incisive rejoinder to my piece on global and national dimensions of leadership diminution (The Punch, August 26, 2016). Applauding the cross cultural and comparative scope of the essay, Akinnaso went on to say that in order to avoid the ruling APC basking in the glow of belonging to an elite group of nations with diminished leadership, it is important to point up mitigating factors which cushion the citizens of advanced democracies. These factors according to him include systems in which the rule of law take pre-eminence, world class infrastructure and effective institutions. A citizen of the world, Akinnaso is right on the money in appreciating that while leadership diminution is global, its consequences vary depending of the level of political and economic development of respective countries. Hence, however incompetent or unpopular President Francois Hollande of France gets, the state structures in France guarantee minimum benefits and standards of living to French citizens. Obviously, we are not so lucky in these parts because we are citizens or subjects of ephemeral state structures belonging to nations waiting to be built. But now we must quicken the pace of construction and redemption of past failures so that Nigerians don’t suffer too much.
To go back to the main discourse, it will be unfortunate if the PDP lapses and pushes itself off the national stage because of real and contrived problems. Tensions and conflicts are to be expected in all organisations large or small; the larger, the more likely they will incubate conflicts. Indeed, some conflicts can be creative if they lead to organisational renewal or bring about an important reformulation of strategies, goals and tactics. There is no hint however that the conflicts in the PDP, denaturing and festering, have anything to with noble visions or ideals that can restart the party. Hence, at a time when Nigerians are in need of an effective opposition to both act as a check on the ruling party and to sign post better days to come, the PDP, or some of its leaders regale themselves with tactical victories obtained at the cost of pushing their party more and more into ruins.
Ordinarily, the statement credited to Deji Adeyanju, Director, New Media of the PDP on Thursday to the effect that President Muhammadu Buhari should pay close attention to the economy or resign should have attracted some mileage. But if Buhari wants to be cynical, his spokespersons can ask Adeyanju whether he is speaking for the Ahmed Makarfi faction or the Ali Modu Sheriff faction of the party. In other words, nobody can take seriously a party so divided and which has made political differences of combatants a priority issue. It is possible that the PDP wary of the consequences of their collective abasement and their impact on our fragile democracy will allow common sense to prevail and build bridges across the current divides. If this happens quickly enough, the party may yet be rescued from its current suicidal journey from irrelevance to extinction.
In the unlikely event that the party overcomes its current troubles, it will wobble on as an inconsequential player in the scheme of things. However that goes, our democracy needs a vibrant opposition party to move the country to the next stage of democratic consolidation.
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EDO: THE POSTPONEMENT ,CONTROVERSY AND BEYOND
AYO OLUKOTUN
“The United States is deeply disappointed by the decision to postpone the elections. Political interference with the Independent Electoral Commission is unacceptable and it is critical that the government not use security concerns as a pretext for impeding the democratic process” John Kerry, Feb. 2015.
The opening quote is taken from a letter written by United States Secretary of State to the Nigerian authorities in February 2015 after the presidential election scheduled for February 14 was shifted to March 28. That statement, typical of the national and international outrage that greeted the postponement decision tapped into a groundswell of dissatisfaction with the Jonathan government perceived as fighting a last ditch battle to prevent electoral loss. For a country that learns from history, that failed cynical attempt to fiddle with election schedule to gain political advantage should have served as healthy deterrent against what appears to be another effort to employ a security alert as a tool of postponing the Edo State governorship election scheduled for Saturday.
Amazingly, less than 48 hours after President Muhammadu Buhari appeared at an All Progressive Congress rally in Benin, the Nigeria Police and Department of State Services informed the public “that credible intelligence available to the agencies indicate plans by insurgents/extremist elements to attack vulnerable communities and soft targets with high population during the forthcoming Salah Celebrations between September 12 and 13, 2016. Edo State is amongst is among the states being earmarked for these attacks”. It is on the basis of this “credible intelligence” that the Electoral Commission had been advised to postpone the election. As at the time this column was turned in, INEC was yet to announce its decision on the matter, raising anxiety and uncertainty about an event that is only 48 hours away.
Obviously, postponement of elections is a grave and fundamental decision that ought to be taken as a last resort and in extreme circumstances such as natural disasters or the death of a major candidate on the eve of an election. That is why established democracies and several African Countries such as Ghana do not have a record of postponing any election thus far. Earlier this year, India had occasion for the first time in its history to postpone an election because of allegations of widespread bribery and possible rigging. But it is instructive that this postponement only affected a few constituencies which were felt to have been tainted by report of corruption. In the impending elections in the United States, there have been speculations and scenario building concerning a possible postponement, unheard of in its recent history should one of the major presidential candidates, one 70 years the other 69 succumb to fatal ill health. The speculations, fuelled by Hilary Clinton’s recent cough attacks and stumbling as well as Donald Trump’s emotional instability are projected in ways that suggest that these are farfetched and grave scenarios without precedent. Hence, if it was wrong and cynical for Jonathan government to have used a security excuse to shift the 2015 elections which it still lost, it is no less reprehensible to postpone the Edo election under whatever guise.
Talking about security reports, this writer recalls that in the course of researching a book published in Sweden 12 years ago, I had occasion to interview a former Minister of Information and well known Political Scientist, Professor Sam Oyovbaire. In answer to one of my questions, he said to me: “Don’t forget that very often, security agents can be likened to makers of coffins whose businesses flourish when there are fatalities. It is understandable therefore that state security can sometimes manufacture or create alarms in order to boost their relevance and professional importance”. Oyovbaire was of course referring to the role of security under the General Ibrahim Babangida government about which I had sought clarification. But the point can be applied generally. For example, many Nigerians will find alarming a statement credited to the Inspector General of Police, Ibrahim Idris, that the protests by the #BringBackOurGirls constitute a security threat to public peace and order (The Punch, September 8, 2016). One would have thought that the coalition now branded security threats was doing the government a world of service by keeping an important agenda on the national burner so that resolution and decisiveness may be brought to bear on the rescue of the Girls.
Obviously, there is a distinct difference between intelligence gathering and intelligence analysis, and recent events and statements call into question the judgment and analytical acumen of our intelligence community. Even if the alert on Edo is as credible as we are made to believe, could it not have been raised before the arrival of international and national observers in Edo State and INEC’s preparation got into full gear?. It is very poor advertisement for Nigeria and our sense of organization that such an alert is being published 72 hours to a scheduled election. In the unlikely event that INEC will brush aside the security advisory, its publication without consultation with INEC have raised serious doubts about the motives, not to talk of the monumental losses and disenfranchisement that will occur as a consequence.
The issue of the General Certificate Examinations which were played up for different reasons could have been a more plausible factor for postponing the election, except that the number of those affected, that is, candidates who are over 18 are comparatively slim and their rights could perhaps have been subsequently accommodated in a supplementary election. At any rate, the exam had been scheduled before the election date was picked by INEC who apparently had under researched the operating environment.
Interestingly, before the recent security alert hit the airwaves, I held conversations with a scholar and politician resident in Benin as well as with a senior journalist. One of them who has authoritative knowledge of Edo State politics, having been in and out of government told me that: “The election will be tightly fought and each of the major candidates from the APC and PDP respectively has a 50:50 chance of winning”. He went on to explain that in Edo, party identification is not a predictor of electoral consequences citing as precedent the election of 2007 where some members of the People’s Democratic Party including Pastor Osagie Ize- Iyamu worked for the victory of Governor Adams Oshiomole, and went ahead to ensure his judicial victory against the interest of their party.
Hence, although Oshiomole has performed above average in a climate of pervasive mediocrity, his record does not automatically confer particular advantages on his anointed heir apparent, Godwin Obaseki, whose voice has been drowned in the campaigns by that of the comrade governor who was doing more running than the candidate. It is possible therefore and speculations are rife to that effect that the security alert had been invented at least partly by a government that was sore afraid of being voted out of power.
If this is indeed the case, it remains to be seen how such a gamble could shift the balance in its favour. At any rate, it was inopportune for security to have counselled the postponement of the elections as they did in 2015, on tenuous premises.
Olukotun is a Professor of International Relations at the Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife.
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The Raging Debate on the Change Mantra
Ayo Olukotun
Even by the standards of a loquacious people such as we are, strange bombast and inflated rhetoric borne of economic adversity, define and defile the political terrain. Stung by relentless criticisms of poor performance on the economy, President Muhammadu Buhari has allowed himself the costly indulgence of dismissing all previous leaders as having achieved nothing. In his words, “I want Nigerians to realize that what this government inherited after 16 years of the PDP government was no savings, no infrastructure, no power, no rail, no road and no security”.
There must be better ways of depicting a country which only recently slipped from Africa’s largest economy to its second largest, and which Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook Founder recently described after visiting hi-tech start-ups in Lagos, as possessing the potential to shape global affairs. Buhari’s sweeping put down of 16 years of emerging democracy illustrates the distemper of the times. Citizens trapped in the frying pan of economic vicissitudes, underlined by galloping inflation and arrears of unpaid salaries throw pellets of rebuke at the President; Buhari berates past leaders, and we all are caught in a heat wave of bashing, substituting for calm analysis and informed conversation.
It is in this context of too many criticisms chasing too few edifying truths that we must situate the rapid fire shooting down of the ‘Change Begins With Me’ campaign launched last week in Abuja by Buhari. Even before Nigerians have had time to properly digest the objectives, in my view inspiring, of the campaign, a volley of harsh words conveying contempt showered the initiative. Leading the offensive is my colleague in the Punch Commentariat, Abimbola Adelakun, who thundered “Dear Lai, Change does not begin with me” (The Punch, September 8, 2016). Adelakun whose take resonated well with the public, argued that “Change does not begin with the average Nigerian. No, it begins with those who promised us change a year ago”. She went on to say that the campaign is “a diversionary tactic, a propaganda vehicle for paternalistic pontification by a hypocritical lot”. Other columnists, a little less severe but equally biting, asked whether attitudinal change was the change promised by Buhari when he campaigned for the presidency. As the diatribes increased, it became clear that several writers saw the program as a “419” substitute for the change in living standards promised by the All Progressive Congress. In short, a noble, and in my view much needed value change campaign had been shouted out of court by a citizenry reeling from the pains and throes of economic doldrums.
To carry the debate further, and beyond its current fixation with the performance of the government on a nose diving economy, it is important to restate that an agenda to restructure the nation’s values constitute an adjunct of genuine political reforms. The pity however, is that its timing is inauspicious, to the extent that it fails to factor that it would have been better received if the government had been more successful at economic turnaround. Indeed, last year, the acclaimed governor of Lagos State, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode called for an ethical rebirth, pointing out that he had created the office of Special Adviser on Civic Engagement, in order to press home the need to complement ongoing renovations in Lagos with citizen buy-in. Nobody thought that such talk was a waste of time or an effort to hoodwink the masses, partly because Ambode has been pushing the frontiers of innovation and purposeful governance in Lagos since he assumed office. In the case of the centre however, it will appear that many of our columnists are reacting, perhaps over reacting to the economic turmoil and the lack of visible progress in broad areas of governance.
The lesson is clear: People in the troughs of despair, preoccupied with existential crisis are not the best candidates for exhortations on moral rehabilitation. For, philosophers recognise situational ethics or bounded rationalities, in which the actors write their own rules and moral codes, based on the exigencies of survival in life threatening circumstances. That granted, somewhere down the road, when there is more pleasure, this country must confront the phenomenon of an emerging uncivil society. There are acceptable modes and genres of protests and coping mechanisms, just as there are uncivil and fracturing ones. The citizen who decides to make away with railings hewed from a newly constructed bridge, in order to make a fast buck is obviously imperilling our collective future. In the same way, widespread dereliction among workers in the public and private sectors, point to dangers of extreme types of behaviour and attitudes. To put it squarely, at what point does the freedom or laxity of an individual become a societal menace and dangerous abnormality? In this respect, the mushrooming of fake drug barons, kidnappers, pipeline vandals, murderous herdsmen, freelance robbers wielding automatic weapons, and sundry crooks making a living in the interstices of a poorly policed society point to the short and long term consequences of growing incivility.
However effective a government gets, it cannot singlehandedly, and without reference to a collaborative society deliver benefits in the face of so much negation. A case in point is the scorched earth tactic of the Niger Delta Avengers, who have chosen as a vehicle of protest, destructive methods that will do great harm and cause grievous setbacks not just to Nigeria if it continues to exist in its current form, but to their own very communities, even if those communities become part of a new country or better still, enjoy more autonomy in a restructured Nigeria.
This columnist is hinting here at the wider issue of defaults in our citizenship which prefers to enjoy rights without responsibilities or obligations. Caught in a similar dilemma, South Africa a few years ago, launched a Bill of Responsibilities Campaign aimed mainly at the youths. Part of the Preamble to that Bill states that “I appreciate that the rights enshrined in the Constitution of the Republic of South Africa are inseparable from my duties and responsibilities to others. Therefore, I accept that with every right comes a set of responsibilities”. Nigeria, marooned in the shadows of an underperforming government and an inclement syndrome in a part of its civil society, certainly needs the “Change Begins With Me” campaign. As previously argued however, the message is unlikely to be received in a situation where it is seen as a manipulative tactic to create excuses for non-performance. Perhaps, it would have made more sense if as part of the change agenda of this administration, it had instituted a revolution in values to undergird its reforms. For obviously, every revolution must have its green or red book, from where it draws inspiration, legitimate its actions, and espouses its vision of a good society. That this was not done at inception is to be regretted but we must be careful not to throw away the baby with the bath water.
Government should bid its time and target an upturn in the economy, engineered by it, in order to reintroduce the important subject. Finally, those in government should set the example by pruning costs and tastes in order to elicit the value change they demand.
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Much as I appreciate your writing, the context of Buhari's Change begins with me is crucial. If I have never stolen public money or misused my position as a university teacher and have never sought political power in order to change the rot in Nigeria to growth, what am I supposed to change to? Only political power can inaugurate the change Nigeria needs. Who has that political power? The fact of the matter is that Nigerian political leaders have never had the political courage to change not only their own ways but also to force fellow politicians to alter their decadent ways.
Preaching morals is okay when you have fulfilled your basic responsibility to the country, not before.
I don't care for objectivity in this argument.
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Date: Thu, 15 Sep 2016 12:49:45 +0100To: Joel Nwokeoma<joel...@yahoo.com>; <ayo_ol...@yahoo.com>
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AYO OLUKOTUN
‘Nigeria must move to the forefront in the region, in the continent and globally in inter woven ways, building effective state institutions, advancing democracy and democratizing development’, Richard Joseph 2016.
Making the rounds are photos of President Muhammadu Buhari, with the United States President, Barrack Obama, taken at side events at the 71st United Nations General Assembly, in New York. Complementing them, are photos of Nigeria’s First Lady, Aisha Buhari nestling at a charity event with Michelle Obama, wife of the United States President. Beyond their utility as showpieces in the family album of the Buharis, the prime time snapshots as well as Buhari’s passionate appeal to American Businessmen to invest in Nigeria, present Nigeria to the world in alluring portraits of a nation focused on overcoming bedeviling economic and political challenges.
Distinguished Political Science Professor, Richard Joseph provides however, in the remark quoted above, a broader agenda for situating Nigeria as a continental leader on the world map. In other words, marketing Nigeria to the world as an investor-friendly destination, run by a purposeful government goes beyond branding photo opportunities and connotes political renewal, the rehabilitation of low performing institutions riddled with ethical infractions as well as the consolidation of Nigeria’s fragile democracy. To be sure, the current severe economic downturn illustrated by a debt profile of #16.03 trillion, and with major international loans such as the $1 billion dollar Euro bond in the offing, makes governance an uphill affair, more so as one senior scholar recently observed, few leaders are popular when their nations are undergoing throes of austerity.
Obviously therefore, Buhari’s reputation and place in history will be determined, not by the anticorruption program on which he has invested precious time and effort but on how quickly and how well he returns Nigeria to healthier economic moorings and mitigate the suffering of the citizens. One of the leaders of the All Progressive Congress, Senator Dino Melaye showed appreciation of the magnitude of this challenge when he warned recently that if the austerity bites deeper, Nigerians may stone APC leaders. Hopefully, the recent ministerial retreat will spark off innovations that can jump start a badly ailing economy. Bearing in mind the truism that no country can negotiate on its knees or climb to the world stage as a borrower nation in search of financial bailouts, Nigeria’s global role and aspirations are intimately bound up with economic recovery and with the return of better times.
Before developing the narrative further however, I crave the reader’s indulgence to enter a short take. The Nigerian State may be an arena of misgivings and entrenched maladies, but Nigerian civil society is often brimming with fresh ideas and innovative strides. That much, was in evidence on Monday, when civil society activists, heroes of prodemocracy agitation and distinguished technocrats converged at Ikene, Ogun State, for the unveiling of the HID Awolowo Foundation and the inauguration of its Advisory Council. Justifying the initiative, Executive Director and Founding Member of the Foundation, Dr. Tokunbo Awolowo Dosunmu, explained that Yeye Oodua HID Awolowo who passed on a year ago on Monday, was being immortalised because of her ‘loyalty and dedication to spouse and family, perseverance in the struggle for the supremacy of truth and social justice and her indomitable spirit in the face of formidable odds’. Appropriately, Guest Lecturer, Dr. Joe Okei-Odumakin Winner of the International Women of Courage Award, 2013, as well as former President of the Civil Liberties Organisation and Chair of the event Mrs. Ayo Obe, emphasised that Nigeria will go better if society returned to the model of stable family life exemplified by the Awolowos, a match which produced the expression ‘Jewel of Inestimable value’. Considering that sound family values and parental nurture are the building blocks of national greatness, one hopes that the Foundation will commit itself spiritedly to its advertised objectives of inspiring women, promoting values and resetting the values of the younger generation.
To return to the initial discourse, economic woes are not the only headaches Nigeria must overcome on its journey to a global role that will uplift the destiny of Black Peoples. Vice Chancellor of the Federal University of Oye-Ekiti, Professor Kayode Soremekun, it was, in an article published in The Punch, who paraphrased a French Scholar as saying that the greatest threat to Nigeria’s security and progress is Nigeria. That was his way of pinpointing the dysfunction of a divided nation, whose greatness is stalled by centrifugal conflicts and the failure of imagination in organising consensus on the national question. As the experiences of surviving federations around the globe show, nationalities are not held together by fiat, strong arm tactics or by clichés such as ‘the unity of Nigeria is not negotiable’. Under Buhari’s watch, the country has pulled steadily apart as evidenced by such events as the resurgence of the Niger-Delta conflict, controversies over the policy of Northernisation in appointments, upsurge in religious divisions as well as the return of the once dormant North vs South divergences.
Consequently, Buhari’s approach of sidestepping the renewal of our federal bargain through the auspices of a national conference or the revalidation of key aspects of the 2014 National Conference can no longer be sustained. This is even more so in a time of economic adversity, when resentful ethnic nationalities pulling in different directions can have severe consequences for the government’s economic recovery plan. Considering that government has now recognised that dialogue with militants in the Delta is crucial for recuperation, it might as well generalise that logic by inaugurating a national conversation around the national question in order to grant a tottering nation a new lease of life.
Interestingly, the concept of soft power and the recent commencement of Soft Power World Rankings such as that of Monocle among others, suggest the importance of intangible national assets which recommend some nations as role models for others. Obviously, if Nigeria succeeds, against current odds, in building a successful development model under a functioning democracy, it would have earned a leadership position among developing countries for whom this remains an aspiration. In the same way as Nigeria received kudos globally for successfully transiting last year from a dominant party in control of government to an opposition party, without bloodshed, political actors must deepen this feat in the search for robust and healthy democracy. Evidently therefore, such symptoms of political disorder as election postponement under pretentious alarms of insecurity, inconclusive elections, which have recently become a national trend must be rolled back if our ascent to the world stage will not remain an illusion.
Similarly, countries which score highly on the Soft Power Index, leverage on their sporting potential and Olympic medals, the quality of their educational institutions, capacities for innovation, aesthetically appealing and green cities, as well as unique cultural endowments in fashion and cuisine. Talking about the Olympics, there is no reason why our sportsmen and women cannot, next time around repeat the honour done to us by our Paralympians, who returned to Nigeria with a harvest of medals.
In conclusion, no nation can sleepwalk or fantasise its way to the world stage. Such a destination can only be attained by thoughtful and well-coordinated plans and policies.