STRATFOR on NATO/Russia/Ukraine
Conf Requester 16
Date: Wed, 1 Mar 2000 21:42:58 -0600 (EST)
From: <al...@stratfor.com>
Subject: NATO/Russia/Ukraine
STRATFOR.COM's Global Intelligence Update - 2 March 2000
By The Internet's Most Intelligent Source of International News &
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WHAT'S GOING ON IN YOUR WORLD
Scharping Trying to Dampen Russian-NATO Rift
http://www.stratfor.com/world/Commentaries/0003020245.htm
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http://www.stratfor.com/asia/commentary/0003020122.htm
Libya: Gadhafi Axes Government Ministries
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/0003020207.htm
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STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update
2 March 2000
Finally, NATO Tests A Resurgent Russia - in Kiev
Summary
NATO's decision-making body - the North Atlantic Council - is
meeting in Kiev, Ukraine. This gathering in the most geopolitically
significant area of Russia's backyard is a direct challenge to the
Putin government's assertive new foreign policy. The alliance is
calling what it believes - indeed, hopes - to be Moscow's
nationalist bluff, painting a picture of the consequences the West
could present if it continues down its current path. The move,
however, is unlikely to dissuade the government in Moscow and will
likely only entrench Russian nationalists. Regardless, the
alliance's diplomatic thrust indicates a shift change in NATO-
Russian relations, likely for the worse.
Analysis
NATO's North Atlantic Council (NAC), in its simultaneous capacity
as the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC), is meeting March 1-2.
Composed of ambassadorial-level representatives of the alliance's
19 member states, the NAC is the alliance's principal decision-
making body. The NUC, in turn, was formed in 1997 to bring the
alliance closer to Ukraine. With mixed success, NATO and Ukraine
have attempted to foster a closer relationship. What is significant
now is the location of the meeting. The alliance's decision-makers
are meeting in Kiev, not Brussels, the headquarters.
As striking as the location - in the most strategically important
nation on the periphery of Russia - is the timing. The meeting
appears to have been called in Kiev on relatively short notice. And
it is taking place as Russia's acting President Vladimir Putin
consolidates both his power and his foreign policy; the March
presidential elections are approaching, and until now, the West has
appeared bewildered by his actions both abroad and in the war in
Chechnya. With this gathering, it appears that the alliance is
sending two sharp messages: one of support to Kiev and one of
warning to Moscow.
NATO's relationship with Russia has changed dramatically and has
not truly recovered from the trough of last year's conflict over
Kosovo. Russia under former President Boris Yeltsin opened to the
West and is now afflicted with a criminalized economy, a
demoralizing loss of status and a dangerously ragged strategic
situation along its borders. Russia under Putin is not only
increasingly nationalist at home - as in the war in Chechnya - but
is pursuing a vastly different foreign policy abroad, one that is
forceful and decidedly independent of the West.
Indeed, it appears that after standing by idly the last several
months, Western governments are beginning to catch on and react -
albeit cautiously, even timidly. Western institutions are launching
initiatives around the Russian periphery. The European Union is
accelerating its expansion, earmarking $1 billion for Poland's
accession efforts last week - a quadrupling of previous outlays.
European Commission President Romano Prodi has alluded to tighter
links between the EU and NATO. NATO holds its first major military
exercise in a non-member's territory, in Sweden June 3-19. The
alliance is cooperating with neutral nations to arm the Baltic
states as well. And at the other end of Europe, Turkey is engaging
in intensive military exercise on its eastern border.
But the most striking aspect of the relationship between the
alliance, in particular, and Russia revolves around Ukraine.
Ukraine is the most strategically important piece of real estate
between Europe and Russia; neither can be secure without Ukraine.
And throughout the post-Cold War period, Ukraine has been
contested. It is economically dependent on Russia but has insisted
on ever closer ties with the West.
Much to Russia's dismay, NATO and Ukrainian forces have held joint
military exercises on the Black Sea and at a number of locations
ashore. NATO and Ukraine have also been busy building relationships
between their respective officer corps. The Ukrainiain military has
never made a secret of its desires to work with the West, recently
and pointedly declining a role in exercises with the Russian navy,
according to Deutsch Presse-Agentur. Ukrainian forces, however,
will participate in NATO's Cooperative Partner 2000 naval
exercises, June 19-30, in the Ukrainian sector of the Black Sea.
The NATO-Ukraine Commission has been the other important vehicle
for security cooperation. Indeed, one of the commission's first
actions, after being formed three years ago, was to establish the
Yavoriv military facility in western Ukraine as a training center
for the Partnership for Peace program - the first such facility in
the former Soviet Union. Ever since, Yavoriv has served as a base
of operations for NATO-sponsored exercises. Now, NATO's civilian
leadership arrives not only to meet but to tour a variety of
facilities.
It appears that this unusual meeting was called on comparatively
short notice; the first word appears to have come in late 1999,
according to spokesmen in Brussels, Washington and various
embassies. This suggests that the meeting is an outgrowth of the
events of late last year: when Russia's war in Chechnya was getting
underway and senior U.S. officials toured alarmed, neighboring
nations. The decision to meet in Kiev indicates a desire on the
part of NATO to send a message of support to Ukraine as well as a
warning to Moscow.
It is likely that this warning will be counterproductive. Russia's
First Deputy Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov visited Kiev on Feb.
22, in an apparent attempt to deepen Russia's influence over the
Ukrainian economy. After all, Putin, the acting Russian president,
draws support from the swells of Russian nationalism. An overly
bold Western gesture in Ukraine - perceived as vital by Russians -
will only strengthen nationalists. Further, a strategy of
confrontation will likely cause stress fractures within the
alliance. Also, the West has yet to offer the carrot as well as the
stick; Putin will refuse to back down if the only option is
resorting to a Yeltsin foreign policy.
Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma seems to be scrabbling to stay
out of this brewing confrontation. Last week he left Kiev for a
two-week vacation in western Ukraine, according to a spokeswoman,
directing his foreign minister to deliver a speech to the NATO
gathering on his behalf. Neither in one camp nor the other, Ukraine
has been forced to gingerly tow a line between Moscow and Brussels.
With both now openly competing for Ukraine, Kuchma will find it
increasingly difficult - if not impossible - to maintain a balanced
policy.
Curiously, Moscow has not officially responded to the NAC meeting.
After meeting with Russian officials, German Defense Minister
Rudolf Scharping is currently en route from Moscow to Washington;
he is likely to carry at least a partial Russian response. Russia
seems to be waiting for the right time and place to voice its full
retort.
Like NATO, Russia has many cards to play. Ukraine's Russian
minority composes more than a quarter of the Ukrainian population.
Russian security services undoubtedly retain a strong presence. In
case of a conflict, no one in Kiev truly knows who would rally
behind the flag. Russian influence over Ukraine's economy is
deepening. Most importantly, despite the sheer size of Ukraine's
territory and population, it still shares a long and nearly
indefensible border with the Soviet Union's most powerful successor
state: Russia.
A showdown is quietly brewing. NATO is trying to expand its ability
to operate jointly with the forces of neutral nations and many
former Soviet states. But it would be a high-profile NATO push into
Ukraine that would ultimately tip the scale. Putin has decided that
Russia will no longer play second fiddle to the West; the Western
response is that if Russia wants a confrontation, one can most
certainly be provided. Such a message will only further fuel
Russia's nationalist fires.
(c) 2000, Stratfor, Inc. http://www.stratfor.com/
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