The great blizzard of 2009
Will Hand
have intimated.
Possibly serious disruption again and this time SW'ern areas will be hit too
by heavy snow and strong winds with drifting, especially above 100m asl.
Increasing confidence that the warmer air will struggle to make it into UK,
models have tended to over-do spread of mild air in past day, witness the
ice in SW England today, when models had it a lot warmer. So after a milder
interlude on Xmas day into Boxing day, colder air returns south on the 27th,
possibly one or two surprises there as well, and then a ridge with frost and
ice returning and then warm air starts to return on Tuesday but does not
make it due to meridional extension forcing very cold air south again from
the pole. Where the two meet (SW England at first) there will be copious
rainfall and then later Tuesday into Wednesday a cold undercut will turn
rain increasingly to heavy snow with a strong to gale east to northeast
wind. Snow levels falling on Tuesday and then on Wednesday the snow moves
east probably moving away slowly by new year. This has the potential for a
very severe episode in my opinion. My confidence is moderate and anyone
travelling, especially in the south, needs to be aware. ECM seems to model
this quite well, the charts may look innocuous, but don't be fooled! I have
already warned some of my family who are considering leaving Haytor earlier
now.
"When the pupil is ready the teacher will teach"
Zen Buddhism
-----------------------------------------------------------
Will (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Col
"Will Hand" <wi...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:hgval4$nnt$1...@news.eternal-september.org...
> Looks like something is going to happen at the end of the year as others
> have intimated.
> Possibly serious disruption again and this time SW'ern areas will be hit
> too by heavy snow and strong winds with drifting, especially above 100m
> asl.
>
> Increasing confidence that the warmer air will struggle to make it into
> UK, models have tended to over-do spread of mild air in past day, witness
> the ice in SW England today, when models had it a lot warmer. So after a
> milder interlude on Xmas day into Boxing day, colder air returns south on
> the 27th, possibly one or two surprises there as well, and then a ridge
> with frost and ice returning and then warm air starts to return on Tuesday
> but does not make it due to meridional extension forcing very cold air
> south again from the pole. Where the two meet (SW England at first) there
> will be copious rainfall and then later Tuesday into Wednesday a cold
> undercut will turn rain increasingly to heavy snow with a strong to gale
> east to northeast wind. Snow levels falling on Tuesday and then on
> Wednesday the snow moves east probably moving away slowly by new year.
> This has the potential for a very severe episode in my opinion. My
> confidence is moderate and anyone travelling, especially in the south,
> needs to be aware. ECM seems to model this quite well, the charts may
> look innocuous, but don't be fooled! I have already warned some of my
> family who are considering leaving Haytor earlier now.
Thanks for the early warning.
I will be travelling back home by train from Malvern on the
Tuesday so I will keep a close watch on this one.
--
Col
Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Dawlish
You wouldn't discount the possibility Will with those charts. That
warm air just doesn't look as if it will make it any distance
northwards and as the front stalls.........
We're looking to travel north on the 30th. or on New Year's Eve, to
visit family in Yorkshire, but I'd be prepared to cancel and visit at
a later date if this situation turns really nasty.
PS I love the thread title. I honestly thought it was a historical
account until I looked more closely at the date! *>))
Keith (Southend)G
>
> - Show quoted text -
I've never seen so many "ensemble" members in agreement at that range
either :-)
Keith (Southend)
Alan Gardiner
I may well be travelling around that time in the SE of England so a useful
warning; I hope that SWMBO won't prevent you from updating your opinion in
the next few days.
Alan Gardiner
Chiswell Green, St Albans
101m ASL
24/12/2009 11:34:05
Mike Tullett
<news:e368c9f6-89d8-4a9a...@s31g2000yqs.googlegroups.com>
> I've never seen so many "ensemble" members in agreement at that range
> either :-)
For both yesterday and today, the spaghetti plots are quite tight out to
six days.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/enspanel2.html
--
Mike Tullett - Coleraine 55.13�N 6.69�W posted 12/24/2009 11:48:09 AM GMT
James Brown
<wi...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> writes
Will, I tried to log on to your site and it told me there were no more
logs available - apparently all the Christmas chopping has been done
;-))
Have a good celebration, and huge thanks for your input to this group,
Cheers
James
--
James Brown
Martin Rowley
news:1i79qq4if1jw6$.dlg@miketullett.net...
> On Thu, 24 Dec 2009 03:33:43 -0800 (PST), Keith (Southend)G wrote in
> <news:e368c9f6-89d8-4a9a...@s31g2000yqs.googlegroups.com>
>> I've never seen so many "ensemble" members in agreement at that
>> range
>> either :-)
> For both yesterday and today, the spaghetti plots are quite tight
> out to
> six days.
> http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/enspanel2.html
>
climatology) is this type of output:-
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=257&y=197&run=100&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1
where you can call up the last four 'runs': note the unusually (IMV)
tight clustering at 850T around 1st January, 2010.
Martin.
--
Martin Rowley
West Moors, East Dorset (UK): 17m (56ft) amsl
Lat: 50.82N Long: 01.88W
NGR: SU 082 023
David Buttery
> Looks like something is going to happen at the end of the year as others
> have intimated.
> Possibly serious disruption again and this time SW'ern areas will be hit
> too by heavy snow and strong winds with drifting, especially above 100m
> asl.
<snip>
Thanks for the warning, Will. I have to travel from here to Bristol on
Wed 30th, so I definitely need to keep an eye on this.
--
Bewdley, Worcs. ~90m asl.
Lawrence Jenkins
"Will Hand" <wi...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:hgval4$nnt$1...@news.eternal-september.org...
So possible foul weather for the South, I love it when you talk dirty, Will.
Lawrence Jenkins
"Dawlish" <pjg...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:2f73f8e1-ab1f-4662...@v25g2000yqk.googlegroups.com...
Hmmm I bet forecasts like that bring out the 'Boy Scout' in you Paul.
Remember protect your woggle at all times so wrap it up nice and warm.
Dawlish
> "Will Hand" <w...@lyneside.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
>
> - Show quoted text -
You get worse! *>)) Such a hopeless coldie case. Yes, possible foul
weather on its way Lawrence: now we'll all wait to see how you decry
the possiblity, shake your head knowledgeably about the unlikeliness,
speak volumes about that type of weather never happening in your neck
of the woods, suggest that something much warmer and less snowier is
probably going to occur, then celebrate the blizzard with gay abandon
(in the real, nice, sense of gay) when it arrives! Always better to
play the possibility down, as it reduces the pain, should it fail to
arrive. I know the score. I've been watching the coldies do that for
years!!
PS. Merry Christmas! Have a good one you and yours.
Lawrence Jenkins
Same to you and your family Paul.