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Patchy forecasts atm

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Keith (Southend)G

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Jun 16, 2013, 7:42:02 AM6/16/13
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I'm having trouble determining the weather for the next few days. BBC, for Southend-on-Sea, has little mention of rain at all for us, yet I'm looking at the rainfall radar with a band of rain heading north towards us. Maybe the Thames is going to dry it out!

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

The Met Office FAX charts show 584DAM air over the SE for two to three days, with a mix of fronts and low pressure, which suggests some humid thundery weather, although looking at the METARs nothing that warm over a good part of Europe, especially our near continent.

http://www.westwind.ch/index.php?link=ukmb,http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/,.gif,bracka,brack0,brack0a,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4

I don't think anyone knows what's going on out there atm !


Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Col

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Jun 16, 2013, 7:46:06 AM6/16/13
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Keith (Southend)G wrote:
,brack1,brack1a,brack2,brack2a,brack3,brack4
>
> I don't think anyone knows what's going on out there atm !

I think that's about right.
Just seen the 5 day BBC forecast and it's a long time since I've seen one
with so
many caveats, uncertainties and the devil is in the detail, especially for
the south.
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg


Graham Easterling

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Jun 16, 2013, 8:35:17 AM6/16/13
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On Sunday, June 16, 2013 12:46:06 PM UTC+1, Col wrote:
> Keith (Southend)G wrote:
>
> > I don't think anyone knows what's going on out there atm !
>
> I think that's about right.
>
> Just seen the 5 day BBC forecast and it's a long time since I've seen one
> with so
> many caveats, uncertainties and the devil is in the detail, especially for
> the south.
>
> Col
>

I thought it would be realy grim here today, after a pleasantly sunny if windy day yesterday, but the rain seems to have carried on northwards. So despite Penzance having >95% chance of rain @ 13:00 (current MetO forecast), it's been dry since noon, even a glimpse of sun.

Camborne recorded 105 hours of sun over the 1st 8 days of June, but sadly changed markedly when I had 4 days in north Cornwall last week, although little rain fortunately - still some sun but a persistent cool wind. Great conditions for the Kite surfers up the Camel estuary, but total rubbish for proper surfing, so lots of walking done. (Few pics http://www.easterling.freeserve.co.uk/camel.html )

Graham
Penzance (good to be back from the north country)

Dawlish

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Jun 16, 2013, 8:46:51 AM6/16/13
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On Sunday, June 16, 2013 12:46:06 PM UTC+1, Col wrote:
As I've been saying and I've been talking about for much of the last week, the models have been and still are, really struggling with this plume and its track. 100 miles out with the forecast, midweek and the weather is 10C and a thunderstorm dropping an inch of rain, in a short time, different. NO wonder the forecast has caveats.

In this instance I can fully understand why.

Tudor Hughes

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Jun 16, 2013, 9:31:52 AM6/16/13
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On Jun 16, 12:42 pm, "Keith (Southend)G" <keith_harr...@hotmail.com>
wrote:
> I'm having trouble determining the weather for the next few days. BBC, for Southend-on-Sea, has little mention of rain at all for us, yet I'm looking at the rainfall radar with a band of rain heading north towards us. Maybe the Thames is going to dry it out!
>
> http://www.raintoday.co.uk/
>
> The Met Office FAX charts show 584DAM air over the SE for two to three days, with a mix of fronts and low pressure, which suggests some humid thundery weather, although looking at the METARs nothing that warm over a good part of Europe, especially our near continent.
>
> http://www.westwind.ch/index.php?link=ukmb,http://www.wetterzentrale....
>
> I don't think anyone knows what's going on out there atm !
>
> Keith (Southend)http://www.southendweather.net
> "Weather Home & Abroad"

Did you mean 564, not 584? The latter would easily break the
UK record. On the other hand GFS has for the third time running had
thicknesses up to 572 over the extreme E of England with associated
maxima of 30°C over the SE and Midlands on Wednesday. I'm a little
suspicious of this - GFS can be a bit of a drama queen and in this
case may have everything a little too far west but I have no means of
knowing whether this is so.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

Dave Cornwell

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Jun 16, 2013, 9:34:57 AM6/16/13
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--------------------------------------------
Looking at the 850 hPa's I think that Tuesday to Thursday could see some
decent weather here in the S.E. There should be a more balmy feel to the
weather with less wind and should the sun come out for any length of
time temperatures could rise quickly. It probably won't though!
Then back to same old!
Dave

Dawlish

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Jun 16, 2013, 10:10:09 AM6/16/13
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Look at this for a spike in the gfs 850hPa's at only 3 days out!

http://www.jp2webdesign.co.uk/two/ensembles/

Dave Cornwell

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Jun 16, 2013, 6:17:21 PM6/16/13
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-------------------------------------------------
Well yes. Hence my comments above!
Dave
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