Today's model interpretation (16/11/08)
Darren Prescott
Issued 0507, 16th November 2008
There'll be a brief cold plunge over the UK on Friday into Saturday as the
Azores High ridges northwards. Thereafter a prolonged spell of WNW'lies
looks likely as the high remains in situ, with a series of lows orbiting it
to the north.
Analysis and evolution to T+120 via GFS
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn001.png
Westerlies cover the UK due to a high to the south. The high builds over
England and Wales tomorrow, with southerlies elsewhere. By Tuesday a
deepening trough moves eastwards, with NW'lies following behind. There are
WNW'lies on Wednesday as the Azores High remains stationary to the SW.
T+120 synopsis
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn12014.png /
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rtavn1201.png
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Rukm1201.gif
http://85.214.49.20/pics/Recm1201.gif /
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nogapse_cartes.php
The jetstream chart shows a large ridge to the west and an upper NW'ly flow
over the UK. There's a strong NW'ly flow aloft on the 500hPa chart too, as
is the case with the other runs.
At the surface, again the runs are remarkably similar to each other. They
all show the Azores High to the WSW and WNW'lies across the UK.
Evolution to T+168
Day 6 brings NW'lies for all with ECM as the Azores High ridges northwards.
NW'lies persist on day 7.
On day 6 with GFS shows NW'lies due to a weak ridge over the UK. The winds
become WNW'lies on day 7 as the ridge moves over France.
Looking further afield
Day 8 with ECM shows WNW'lies as a ridge moves over the UK. There are
further WNW'lies on day 9s and 10.
GFS has WNW'lies on days 8 to 10 as high pressure persists to the WSW.
Ensemble analysis
(http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres)
The ensembles still show a mobile "sine wave" pattern for the forseeable
future.
Paul Hyett
<n...@medvale.demon.co.uk> wrote in uk.sci.weather :
>Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
>Issued 0507, 16th November 2008
>
>There'll be a brief cold plunge over the UK on Friday into Saturday as
>the Azores High ridges northwards. Thereafter a prolonged spell of
>WNW'lies looks likely as the high remains in situ, with a series of
>lows orbiting it to the north.
Surely under a run of those, it'll be fairly cool, especially at this
time of year?
--
Paul Hyett, Cheltenham (change 'invalid83261' to 'blueyonder' to email me)
Weatherlawyer
> On Sun, 16 Nov 2008 at 05:10:42, Darren Prescott
> <n...@medvale.demon.co.uk> wrote in uk.sci.weather :
>
> >Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
> >Issued 0507, 16th November 2008
>
> >There'll be a brief cold plunge over the UK on Friday into Saturday as
> >the Azores High ridges northwards. Thereafter a prolonged spell of
> >WNW'lies looks likely as the high remains in situ, with a series of
> >lows orbiting it to the north.
>
> Surely under a run of those, it'll be fairly cool, especially at this
> time of year?
As opposed to cold, do you mean?
Dave Cornwell
"Darren Prescott" <n...@medvale.demon.co.uk> wrote in message
news:NZ-dnTigZozLNoLU...@posted.metronet...
> Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
> Issued 0507, 16th November 2008
>
> There'll be a brief cold plunge over the UK on Friday into Saturday as the
> Azores High ridges northwards. Thereafter a prolonged spell of WNW'lies
> looks likely as the high remains in situ, with a series of lows orbiting
> it to the north.
>
Aha, is this the first of my predicted "toppler" winter. ;-(
Dave
John Hall
Paul Hyett <vidc...@invalid83261.co.uk> writes:
>On Sun, 16 Nov 2008 at 05:10:42, Darren Prescott
><n...@medvale.demon.co.uk> wrote in uk.sci.weather :
>
>>Here is a summary of the NWP output for noon on Thursday.
>>Issued 0507, 16th November 2008
>>
>>There'll be a brief cold plunge over the UK on Friday into Saturday as
>>the Azores High ridges northwards. Thereafter a prolonged spell of
>>WNW'lies looks likely as the high remains in situ, with a series of
>>lows orbiting it to the north.
>
>Surely under a run of those, it'll be fairly cool, especially at this
>time of year?
Depends on the source of the air. If it's curving round the northern
edge of a High located to our west, then that source will be quite mild.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)
Weatherlawyer
it.
Just found something interesting in between moving some stuff around:
Mere lunarcy to some but these are not days to piss about in.
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2008/11/16/vietnam?cid=6406818